Anthony Stalter (under TheScoresReport) and I (under fantasytips) will be tweeting throughout Week 3. Feel free to ask us questions, call us names, whatever…
Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 14 of 80)
Since I’m releasing weekly positional rankings this season, it occurred to me that the Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em picks were a little repetitive and lack context without discussing the player-by-player rankings as well. So going forward, I’m going to use a similar format, but I’ll often be referring to my positional rankings so that readers can get a sense of how I feel that player will perform against his peers.
It’s probably easier to dive right in than try to explain what’s bouncing around in my head. As always, I will still focus on those players that you’ll only start under certain circumstances (i.e. good matchups), so if you have a stud, just go ahead and plug them in.
Three lower-end fantasy QB1s — Matt Ryan (#7), Eli Manning (#6) and Joe Flacco (#8) — all have very nice matchups this week. I have Eli the highest because the Texans have the worst pass defense in the league and that’s the game that has the best chance at turning into a shootout. I could see the ATL/CLE and BAL/DEN games devolving into lower-scoring affairs…The Jaguars have given up 304 yards and 2.3 pass TDs per game this season, which is why I have Ryan Fitzpatrick ranked at #9. Fitzy is available in a lot of leagues, so if you need a readily available sleeper at QB, look no further…I think I’m probably higher on Kyle Orton (#11) this week than most fantasy ‘experts.’ It’s true that he has a very tough matchup, but with Knowshon Moreno still sidelined, the Broncos are going to have to spread the Ravens out and throw the ball a lot. Orton faced two pretty tough pass defenses in the last two weeks (IND and TEN) and he shredded both of them. The guy is just in a groove right now…Shaun Hill (#12) has averaged 301 yards and 1.7 TDs over the past three weeks, but the Rams are playing pretty good defense at the moment. Still, Hill has done it against three solid defenses (PHI, MIN, GB), so he should have a nice week.
Updated 10/7/10 with the news that Jay Cutler would miss Week 5.
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.
Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)
Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.
To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
Let’s see how my Week 4 picks fared:
Michael Lombardi of the NFL Network writes that second-year Brandon Tate is poised to become a big contributor in the Pats’ offense:
And BrandonTate will be the deep threat for the Pats, and he is really an explosive talented player who will become a major contribuator now
I did one of these “what can we expect” posts for Bruce Gradkowski, so let’s take a closer look at Tate and try to estimate what kind of numbers he’ll put up the rest of the way.
After four games, Tate is 4th on the Pats in targets (14), but of all the team’s receivers, he figures to see the biggest boost in snaps since he’ll be replacing Randy Moss in the starting lineup. Let’s say that, in addition to his current 3.5 targets per game, he gets two-thirds of Moss’s targets (5.5 * 0.67). That’s about 7.2 per game. He’s currently converting 79% of his targets into receptions, which is unlikely to continue since he’ll probably be running deeper routes. Let’s say he converts at 60% and averages, say, 14.0 ypc (he’s currently averaging 12.3 ypc). That works out to 4.3 catches for 60 yards per game. So in a PPR league, he’s already at 10.3 points, and I’ve been pretty conservative in my estimates. And we haven’t even accounted for touchdowns or his explosive return game yet.
I asked our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, what he thinks of Tate and this is what he said:
he’s lean, but has good size…good quickness, but not overly fast…he’s not that great of a route-runner at this point in his career and relies too much on athletic ability…he can be elusive, but like I said – he’s more quick than fast…soft hands, good body control…Davone Bess is a good comparison, although I think Tate may be faster straight-line.
Projecting out 4.3 catches for 60 yards and let’s say 0.3 TD per game, and Tate looks like a 69-960-5 player over a full 16-game season. Last season, those were WR22-type numbers in PPR leagues.
In other words, pick him up.
Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?
I’m here to help.
After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.
If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until Friday when I’ll release my official Week 5 rankings.
And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). Special thanks to “DaKid” for commenting on FantasyPros last week.
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