Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 13 of 80)

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger throws for a short gain during the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Invesco Field at Mile High on August 29, 2010 in Denver. UPI/Gary C. Caskey Photo via Newscom

Last week, I changed the format of Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em to stay within the context of my weekly positional rankings. I’ll typically discuss fringe starters that should only be in lineups under certain conditions as well as players that I have ranked higher (or lower) than the rest of the fantasy community.

My rankings often change throughout the week, so when in doubt, go with the rankings.

Joe Flacco (#8) has had his ups and downs this season, but he’s coming off three pretty solid performances and has the Pats’ 28th-ranked pass defense this week. I’m a little worried about Beligenius having a bye week to prepare, but the Pats have struggled in the secondary all season and Flacco should be able to hook up with Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason and Todd Heap with regularity…Sure, he’s coming off of suspension, but Ben Roethlisberger (#9) is definitely starter quality this week against a Browns pass defense that has yielded an average of 214 yards and 1.6 pass TDs on the season…Kyle Orton (#6) seemingly has a bad matchup with the Jets, but they’ve actually been pretty bad against the pass (235 yards, 1.8 pass TDs) this season and Darrelle Revis may miss the game with hamstring injury. Besides, good defense or bad defense, it doesn’t matter to Orton, who has thrown for at least 295 yards and one TD in every game this season…Vince Young (#12) has a date with the Jags’ 28th-ranked pass defense that gives up 2.4 pass TDs per game. Young is a good bet to throw for at least 200 yards and two scores…Desperate? Everything is lined up for likely-on-your-waiver-wire Matt Cassel (#22) this week. The Texans are last in the league against the pass and while Cassel wasn’t great against the Colts, his numbers would have looked a lot better had Dwayne Bowe held onto that long TD pass.

Continue reading »

Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 6

Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?

I’m here to help.

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later today when I’ll release my official Week 6 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 6

Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub grimaces as he is sacked by New York Giants defensive tackle Rocky Bernard during their NFL football game in Houston October 10, 2010.  REUTERS/Richard Carson  (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 5 picks fared:

#1 Chargers: 3 SK = 3 fantasy points
#2 Panthers: 3 SK + 4 INT = 7 fp
#3 Rams: 1 SK = 1 fp

My original post had the Falcons (18 points) at #3, but I’m not going to include them because heading into the weekend I had them fourth overall. I’m not trying to sugarcoat this deal. On the season, my top pick is averaging 6.6 fantasy points, my #2 pick is averaging 10.8 and my #3 pick is averaging 5.2. On the whole, DTBWW is averaging 7.5 fantasy points. I’m not real happy with the performance of DTBWW over the last three weeks save for the Charger’s 24-point explosion in Week 4.

Let’s take a look at my Week 6 picks:

Continue reading »

Waiver Wire Watch, Week 6: Where Danny Amendola reigns supreme

ST. LOUIS - NOVEMBER 22: Danny Amendola #16 of the St. Louis Rams carries the ball against the Arizona Cardinals at the Edward Jones Dome on November 22, 2009 in St. Louis, Missouri. The Cardinals beat the Rams 21-13. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

I’m going to change things up on the Waiver Wire Watch and start including players that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% (instead of 50%) of ESPN leagues.

I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Matthew Stafford (23.4)
He’s not quite back yet, but in 12-team leagues it’s time to start thinking about picking him back up if you are past your QB’s bye. Starting in Week 8, the Lions’ schedule gets pretty favorable for the next eight games.

Josh Freeman (11.9)
Throwing out that game against the Steelers’ suffocating defense, Freeman has thrown for at least 280 yards or two TDs in three of his first four games. He’s a solid start against all but the toughest pass defenses, and his remaining schedule is very favorable (including WAS, DET and SEA during the fantasy playoffs).

David Garrard (40.8)
I used to think he was one of the most underrated fantasy QBs playing today. Then he posted a total of 278 yards, one TD and five INTs against the Chargers and Eagles. I was done with him. Then he threw for 341 yards, five TDs and one pick against the Colts and the Bills. Now I don’t know what to think. His upcoming schedule isn’t bad, but it isn’t terribly good either.

Matt Hasselbeck (21.1)
Hasselbeck’s schedule the rest of the way is largely mediocre, making him a middle-of-the-road fantasy QB2.

Alex Smith (10.6)
If the 49ers let him be himself (i.e. run the offense out of the shotgun) then Smith will continue to post good fantasy numbers. I don’t know if he’s going to win any games, but he will continue to post good numbers. His upcoming schedule should get easier.

Kevin Kolb (58.8)
He played pretty well in a good matchup against the 49ers, but I wouldn’t want to start him against ATL or TEN in the next two weeks. (Though it should be noted that neither matchup is dreadful.)

Sam Bradford (39.1)
Things were looking good for the rookie, with four straight games of at least 235 passing yards or two TDs. But Mark Clayton’s knee injury is going to knock him down a few pegs in my rankings. And he has a rough matchup with SD this week.

Shaun Hiill (12.2)
There’s no arguing that Hill has been on fire of late, but with Calvin Johnson possibly out for a Week 6 date with the Giants (who just shut down the Texans’ offense), he’s not a good pickup this week.

Matt Cassel (9.9)
Had Dwayne Bowe held on in the endzone, Cassel would have finished with respectable numbers. With HOU, JAX and BUF coming up, Cassel is a sneaky good (yet undependable) play.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (6.3)
He’s going on his bye, but Fitzy has averaged 198 yards, 2.3 TDs and 0.7 INT since taking over as the starter. He has a rough upcoming schedule (BAL, CIN, PIT, MIN in his next seven games), but a great matchup in Week 16 (NE).

Jason Campbell (4.2)
Campbell filled in for an injured Bruce Gradkowski and threw for 159 yards and a TD in a pretty tough matchup with the Chargers. With SF, DEN and SEA coming up, he’s a decent start in two-QB leagues.

Max Hall (1.0)

Jimmy Clausen (1.5)

Colt McCoy (0.4)

Continue reading »

Fantasy Fallout, Week 5: Where Ray Rice says, “Yeah, I’m still a stud.”

Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice celebrates his touchdown in the end zone as the official at left signals a touchdown during the fourth quarter of their NFL football game against the Denver Broncos in Baltimore, Maryland October 10, 2010.  REUTERS/Joe Giza (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Ray Rice has been battling a knee injury, but it didn’t appear to bother him on Sunday, as he gained 133 yards on 27 carries with two touchdowns. Willis McGahee failed to punch it in from close early in the game, so the Ravens used Rice around the goal line and he rewarded them with two scores. He’s back in ‘must-start’ territory going forward. Anquan Boldin (1-8) was very quiet and Joe Flacco (198 yards) didn’t throw for a TD, but he snuck one in early on. On the other side of the ball, Brandon Lloyd (5-135-1) — this year’s Miles Austin? — and Jabar Gaffney (9-87) helped Kyle Orton (314 yards, 2 TD) to another good fantasy line.

Another guy who is oscillating in and out of ‘stud’ territory is Maurice Jones-Drew, who only gained 84 yards in a great matchup against a terrible Bills’ rush defense. It’s important to note that rookie Deji Karim (15 carries, 70 yards) was the Jags’ RB2 this week. Marcedes Lewis (4-54-2) and Mike Sims-Walker (4-46-1) led the Jags in receiving. For the Bills, Steve Johnson (5-46-2) caught a TD for the third straight game.

For the Bucs, I’ve seen some owners considering cutting rookie Mike Williams (7-99-1), but his performance in a tough matchup proves that he’s absolutely worth holding onto. The Tampa Bay RBBC is getting ugly with Carnell Williams (11 touches, 33 yards), Earnest Graham (3 carries, 65 yards, TD), LeGarrette Blount (4 carries, 3 yards) and Kareem Huggins (1 carry, 4 yards) all getting some work. For the Bengals, Terrell Owens (7-102-1) had another big game while Chad Ochocinco (3-20) was once again quiet.

Continue reading »

« Older posts Newer posts »