Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 10 of 80)

Waiver Wire Watch, Week 9: Where Jacob Tamme looks like a bona fide TE1

INDIANAPOLIS - SEPTEMBER 13:  Jacob Tamme #84 of the Indianapolis Colts runs with the ball during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium on September 13, 2009 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Matthew Stafford (30.5)
I have been saying for weeks that fantasy owners in need of QB help should pick Stafford up and he delivered in his first game back throwing four TDs in a great matchup against the Redskins. His schedule is favorable down the stretch (though I don’t love him this week against the Jets, now that Darrelle Revis is healthy), so he should be a very capable starter over the second half of the season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (33.2)
Fitzy’s line this week (223 yards, TD, INT) was rather pedestrian, but he also ran for 43 yards, which made for a decent fantasy day. He has a bad matchup this week (CHI), but he closes the season with three nice matchups (CLE, MIA and NE).

Chad Henne (61.2)
Henne’s surprisingly quiet output against the Bengals (217 yards, INT) broke a string of four straight productive starts where he threw for an average of 289 yards and 1.8 TD per game. The schedule over the next three weeks is rough (BAL, TEN, CHI), but after that things get a lot easier (OAK, CLE, BUF and DET over the last five games).

Josh Freeman (26.8)
Week 8 marked the fourth straight game where Freeman threw for 212+ yards and a TD. Plus, he gives you a few rushing yards as well (25 per game). The matchup this week (ATL) is pretty tantalizing and other than the Panthers in Week 10 and the Ravens in Week 12, Freeman looks like a nice start the rest of the way.

Jon Kitna (15.8)
I thought Kitna was going to play a lot better against the Jags. While he did throw for 379 yards and a TD, he also threw four picks. Going forward, the Cowboys’ defense looks brutal so Kitna should find himself throwing from behind with regularity. That could make for some nice fantasy days.

Sam Bradford (28.3)
No Mark Clayton? No Danario Alexander? No problem. The rookie just keeps playing solid ball and has now thrown five TDs and no picks in the last three games. He has a bye in Week 9, but his schedule thereafter (SF, ATL, DEN) is quite favorable.

David Garrard (25.3)
Would the real David Garrard please stand up? In the last three games he has finished, Garrard has averaged 200 passing yards and 3.0 TD per game. He has had a few terrible outings this season, but with Houston and Cleveland coming up after the bye (not to mention the Redskins in Week 16), he’s an interesting QB to be used as part of a committee.

Matt Cassel (44.7)
Cassel has had a good run the last three weeks, but both his TDs and his yards have decreased every game, which isn’t a particularly good sign. The Chiefs are a run-oriented team, so while Cassel is all right in certain matchups, he shouldn’t be counted on on a weekly basis.

Jason Campbell (5.5)
Campbell has thrown for 514 yards and four TDs in his last two starts, but if Tom Cable is to be believed, Bruce Gradkowski will retake his starting job upon his return. However, that could change if Campbell starts against the Chiefs and leads the Raiders to their third-straight win. The Chiefs are not a good matchup.

Matt Hasselbeck (20.4)
He was concussed in Week 8. Between that and his matchup with the Giants’ excellent pass defense, Hasselbeck should be avoided for the time being.

Matt Moore (2.2)
After a 308-yard, two-TD outing against the 49ers in Week 7, Moore threw for 194 yards, a TD and three interceptions against a pretty good Rams defense in Week 8. Next up are the Saints, which pretty much shut down Ben Roethlisberger this week. Steer clear if you can.

Bruce Gradkowski (1.4)
See Campbell, Jason.

Colt McCoy (1.4)
Unlike Bradford, who has been remarkably consistent for a rookie, McCoy has had his fantasy ups (281 yards, TD, 2 INT against the Steelers) and downs (74 yards against the Saints). Coming off his bye he has two nice matchups in his next three games (NE in Week 9 and JAX in Week 11), but he’s only fodder for the desperate.

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Fantasy Fallout, Week 8: Where Calvin Johnson welcomes Matthew Stafford back with open arms

DETROIT - OCTOBER 31: Calvin Johnson  of the Detroit Lions scores a second quarter touchdown as DeAngelo Hall  and Lorenzo Alexander  of the Washington Redskins attempt tp make the stop at Ford Field on October 31, 2010 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

As I’m sitting here attempting to start my fallout column, there’s a little two-and-a-half year old firefighter pestering me to go trick-or-treating, so don’t be surprised if this week’s version is abbreviated. I’m only going to focus on the truly surprising fantasy lines of the day.

EARLY GAMES

In my Waiver Wire Watch, I’ve been pushing Matthew Stafford (212 yards, 4 TDs) for the last couple of weeks and he delivered in a great matchup this week thanks to Calvin Johnson‘s (9-103-3) outstanding performance. The split in the backfield between Jahvid Best (17 touches, 79 yards) and Kevin Smith (14 touches, 67 yards) is a little worrisome, however. Smith has looked good in recent weeks in limited duty and we’ll have to wait and see if the Lions were limiting Best for any particular reason. Ryan Torain (12 touches, 29 yards, TD) left the game with a hamstring injury, and Keiland Williams (9 touches, 53 yards, TD) took his place. Williams may be a hot waiver wire pickup this week.

David Garrard (260 yards, 4 TD, rush TD) was a common pickup for a lot of Tony Romo owners who were scrambling for QB help this week, and boy, did he deliver. Mike Sims-Walker (8-153-1) exploded with a big game as well. Garrard has his bye next week and then has two good matchups in Weeks 10 (HOU) and 11 (CLE), so he’s a good play, at least in the short-term. And don’t read too much into Jon Kitna‘s so-so week (379 yards, TD, 4 INT). With the way that the Dallas DT is playing (poorly), the Cowboys are going to be in a lot of shootouts this season and that should mean some nice fantasy lines from Kitna. Felix Jones‘s struggles (11 touches, 36 yards) are very troublesome — I’d probably bench him until he can get it going.

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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 8

SAN DIEGO - AUGUST 21: Quarterback Jon Kitna  of the Dallas Cowboys in action during the pre-season NFL football game against San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium on August 21, 2010 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

Even though Bronco fans weren’t very happy with him after last week, I’m still a (fantasy) fan of Kyle Orton (#4), who faces a 49er defense that was torched by Matt Moore, David Gettis and Brandon LaFell last week. Throw in a gimpy Knowshon Moreno and I think Orton will have a big day…With Tony Romo out for most of the rest of the season, Jon Kitna (#7) takes over the Cowboys’ dynamic offense. The defense can’t really stop anyone, so no matter how much Dallas wants to run the ball, Kitna is going to have to make some plays, and he proved he could be a good fantasy QB when he was in Detroit. Besides, the Jags have given up a league-leading 16 pass TDs this season…First game back? No worries for Matthew Stafford (#12) who looked great in preseason and had a bye week to prepare. The Redskins have had trouble stopping the pass this season…Need a sleeper/waiver wire-type guy? David Garrard (#18) should have a good game against a Cowboys defense that is reeling after getting sliced and diced by Eli Manning last week.

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Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 8

ST. LOUIS - OCTOBER 17: Ryan Mathews  of the San Diego Chargers is tackled by James Laurinaitis  of the St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome on October 17, 2010 in St. Louis, Missouri. The Rams beat the Chargers 20-17. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 7 picks fared:

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