Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Peyton Manning, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.
LOVE ‘EM
QB: Don’t overthink things and bench Kurt Warner this week. The Pats are not very good against the pass, so Warner and Co. should be able to have their way through the air. The only wildcard is the weather…Matt Cassel is a nice start against an Arizona defense that has given up the most pass TD (31) in the league…Despite the long plane ride, Brett Favre looks like a good start against a Seahawks pass defense that is last in the league in yards allowed…In the same game, Seneca Wallace has a nice matchup with the Jets defense that is 29th in the league against the pass…Dan Orlovsky played pretty well last week against the Colts and he has a great matchup this week against the Saints, who own the league’s 26th ranked pass defense. He’s a legit option for the desperate…For the super-desperate, JaMarcus Russell (vs. HOU) and Brian Griese (vs. SD) both have good matchups. If Jeff Garcia starts, he’s a solid play against a Chargers defense that is ranked 31st against the pass.
RB: Matt Forte should be in your lineup this week. The Packers just can’t stop the run…Steve Slaton has a great matchup with an Oakland defense that is ranked #31 against the run. They have allowed 167 yards and 1.4 rush TD per game…With Reggie Bush out for the rest of the season, Pierre Thomas should rack up the stats against the Lions…Maurice Jones-Drew is a terrific play this week against a Colts defense that has yielded 127 yards and 1.1 rush TD per game… Marshawn Lynch had a big game last week against the Jets and I think he’s in store for another one against a sketchy Denver rush defense…Frank Gore would be a good start against the Rams. If he can’t go, DeShaun Foster should be able to take advantage of the league’s 29th-ranked rush defense…Ronnie Brown is a great start against the Chiefs. They’ve struggled against the run all year.
WR: Randy Moss and Wes Welker are both must-starts against an Arizona defense that really struggles against the pass…Both Green Bay receivers – Greg Jennings and Donald Driver – should be in your lineup this week assuming the weather is decent in Chicago. The Bears are 28th against the pass…T.J. Houshmandzadeh should be started in PPR leagues, and Chad Johnson is a fringe start this week as well. The Browns have struggled against the pass, especially lately…Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are both worth a start this week as they face a Seattle defense that is dead last against the pass…Braylon Edwards has a good shot to score against a Bengals secondary that has allowed 22 pass TDs this year.
LEAVE ‘EM
QB: Matt Ryan is playing well this season, but I don’t feel great about him this week against Minnesota. The Vikings have been good against the pass, especially lately and it’s going to be tough for him to put up big numbers…It would be a good idea to leave David Garrard on the bench despite his solid play in recent weeks. The Colts have the #7 pass defense and have only allowed five pass TD on the year…Ben Roethlisberger is still startable, but he doesn’t have a very good matchup this week. The Titans have the #5 ranked pass defense and have only yielded nine pass TD on the year…I’d definitely recommend benching Kerry Collins this week. The thought of Collins trying to throw against the Steelers sends a chill down my spine.
RB: Michael Turner has been productive all season, but don’t expect him to go off against the league’s #1 run defense…DeAngelo Williams is pretty much a must-start every week, but Jonathan Stewart isn’t likely to go off in limited work against the Giants, who are #4 in the league against the run…Marion Barber (or Tashard Choice) isn’t a very good option against the Ravens. Choice did have success against the Steelers, so there’s an outside shot that a Dallas RB will have a nice game on Saturday…The Dolphins have been tough against the run, so it would be wise to bench the plodding Larry Johnson unless you don’t have any better options…The Chargers rush defense has been better lately, and with a RBBC brewing in Tampa Bay (with Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams), it’s probably best to avoid the Bucs RBs this week…They’re still startable but Chris Johnson (vs. PIT) and Clinton Portis (vs. PHI) both have bad matchups this week.
WR: It’s not a good week to experiment with any of the Giants’ WRs. Carolina’s pass defense has only allowed 14 TD all year…They’re still startable, but don’t expect huge games from DeSean Jackson or Kevin Curtis. The Redskins have the #6 pass defense in the league…The same goes for Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, who face a stingy Titans defense…Vincent Jackson is still worth a start, but the Bucs defense held down Roddy White last week and has been tough to throw on all year. If you have a better option, utilize it.
THINKING DEFENSIVELY (DTBWW)
Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW). Each week, you pick up a defense, usually one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
(I’d take the Dolphins first before moving onto the list.)
CLE (vs. CIN) – 12/18 update: I moved the Browns ahead of the Seahawks and Dolphins.
SEA (vs. NYJ)
Last week’s picks:
Patriots: 26 PA + 2 SK + 1 INT + 1 RET TD = 9 fantasy points
Redskins: 20 PA + 2 SK = 2 fantasy points
