Tag: Fantasy football draft strategy (Page 8 of 20)

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Are wideouts the new running backs? Not quite, but they continue to gain importance as more and more leagues make rules changes that enhance the value of the position. How do you know if you’re in one of these leagues? If your rules only require one starting RB spot and has a flex position, or if it awards one point per reception, you can start thinking about drafting a WR in the middle of the first round.

As I noted in the RB preview, there is a pretty sizable drop off after the first five or six running backs this season, so as soon as Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice are off the board, it’s time to consider going with a wideout. Frank Gore and Steven Jackson are justifiable picks at #5 or #6, but Andre Johnson is also worth consideration. And I’d rather have Larry Fizgerald than any of the RBs in the next tier (Michael Turner, Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, etc.).

If you’re in a league that does NOT require two starting RBs, and you’re drafting in the back half of round one, it makes a lot of sense to zag when everyone else is zigging, by grabbing a stud WR. You could even draft a second wideout early in the 2nd and wait to nab your first RB late in the third, when guys like Pierre Thomas, Chris Wells and Joseph Addai are still likely to be available. You could end up with Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Thomas as your core, and that’s a group that is projected (by Footballguys) to outscore a Turner/Mendenhall/S. Rice core by almost 100 fantasy points over the course of the season (assuming a high-performance, PPR league).

If you’re drafting in the first half of the first round and want to grab a stud RB early, don’t be afraid to go WR with your next pick, as there will be plenty of RB talent available early in the third round, and given the relative depth in rounds 2 and 3, you won’t be losing many points by letting Ryan Grant, Jamaal Charles or Knowshon Moreno go. Somebody comparable will be there in the 3rd.

Even if you load up on WR talent early, it’s always nice to be able to pluck a good WR out of the pack in the middle rounds. Here are a few players that are going in the 6th-10th rounds that should outperform their current average draft positions. (Note: All ADP data is from Antsports.)

Hines Ward (6.01)
It’s almost August, so that must mean I’m writing about Hines Ward as a value fantasy wideout. Sure, he’s 34, but over the last two seasons he has averaged 88-1105-6.5. He was WR14 last season and WR15 the year before, so why is he being drafted WR23? It’s not just his age — he’s going to be without Ben Roethlisberger for the first six games. But Byron Leftwich can hold down the fort, right? If he stays healthy, Ward should have another top 20 fantasy season.

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All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Generally speaking, the running back position is the backbone of any good fantasy football team. But more and more, leagues have tried to de-emphasize the position by changing lineup requirements (i.e. one RB and a flex instead of two RB) or adding a point per reception, which increases the important of workhorse WRs and TEs.

Looking at the list of consensus early round running backs, one thing is clear — there aren’t many so-called ‘studs’ this season. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew are no-brainers, but after that there’s a drop off to a couple of would-be studs (Steven Jackson and Frank Gore) and an even bigger drop off to a deep tier of backs.

So it’s a good year to think about drafting a stud WR in the middle- to late-first round instead of taking the first of a big batch of very similar prospects. For example — in a PPR league, what are the chances that Pierre Thomas (ADP: 3.07) will outscore Michael Turner (1.09)? If both players stay healthy, I think the chances are pretty good. So therein lies the question: If you’re drafting 1.07, why take Turner when you are likely to have a shot at a similar back in the second or third round?

Here’s the answer — you don’t. I could see jumping on Gore/Jackson at 1.05/1.06, but after that, I’d much rather have Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald (or even Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne or Miles Austin) than the top guy in the next group of RBs.

Look at it this way: Would you rather have Michael Turner and Brandon Marshall or Andre Johnson and Jamaal Charles? I’d rather have the latter.

In fact, this might be the year where I finally do the unthinkable and go WR-WR-WR in the first three rounds, gobbling up three of the top 12 or 13 wideouts and draft a couple of underrated RBs like Chris Wells (4.03), Cedric Benson (4.06), Matt Forte (4.10) or Joseph Addai (5.05) in the 4th and 5th rounds. Of course, you’d only want to pull this trick if your league allows you to start three wideouts.

With that in mind, here are a few backs who could be had in the third round or later that would make a nice addition to a lineup stacked with 2-3 stud wideouts. Who knows, maybe they’ll even outscore Michael Turner…

(Note: All ADP data is from Antsports for mocks drafting in July for a 12-team PPR league.)

Pierre Thomas (3.07)
Thomas was RB16 last year despite scoring just one fantasy point in the first two games due to a knee injury. That’s been his issue — staying healthy. But when he’s playing, he’s productive. And with Mike Bell gone, Thomas figures to get all of the goal line work. Even with Reggie Bush stealing catches, Thomas is very active in the passing game. If he stays healthy, he has a great shot to finish in the Top 10, and he has a couple of nice matchups in Week 14 and Week 16, during the fantasy playoffs.

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In our position preview, I ranked the top three fantasy QBs this way: 1) Drew Brees, 2) Aaron Rodgers and 3) Peyton Manning.

We may be splitting hairs here. These are the top three QBs heading into the season and you can’t go wrong with any of them. But I’d take Brees first and here’s why:

1. He’s always playing in Week 16.
Peyton Manning has put up some monster numbers in W16 in recent years. 364 yards and 3 TD in 2008, 311 yards and 3 TD in 2007, and 205 yards and 3 TD in 2006. But he also had just 192 yards and zero TD against the Jets last year and a 116-yard, zero-TD performance in a meaningless game against the Seahawks in 2005. Sometimes the Colts’ Week 16 games don’t matter and when that happens, Manning isn’t going to play a whole hell of a lot. Drew Brees (and Aaron Rodgers) are far more likely to be in a meaningful Week 16 game.

2. He plays indoors in Week 16.
Not only does Brees have a nice matchup with the Falcons in the cozy Georgia Dome in Week 16, he also has the Rams at home in Week 14, which is often the first week of the fantasy playoffs. He does have the Ravens on the road in Week 15, so it’s not all rosy for Brees. Conversely, Rodgers has the Lions indoors in Week 14 (!!!), but then he has two tough, cold weather games at New England and at home against the Giants. If there’s a title on the line, I’d rather that weather not be a factor.

3. He has an easier schedule this year.
According to Footballguys’ strength of schedule, Brees has an improved schedule while Rodgers’ projects to be tougher. (Manning has the easiest of the three, but that would only increase the chances that he’ll be limited in Week 16.)