Tag: Dallas Mavericks (Page 16 of 16)

John Hollinger’s Western Conference playoff odds

Yesterday, we took a look at John Hollinger’s Eastern Conference playoff odds. Today we’ll look at the Western Conference.

1. LA Lakers (100)
2. Phoenix (96.5)
3. Portland (96.3)
4. Denver (93.8)
5. Utah (88.6)
6. New Orleans (81.1)
7. Dallas (80.6)
8. Houston (78.1)
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9. Golden State (34.4)
10. Memphis (20.3)
11. San Antonio (19.9)
12. Sacramento (7.7)
13. Minnesota (2.6)
14. L.A. Clippers (0.1)
15. Oklahoma City (0.0)

He looks like he has the West pegged save for one big problem. I don’t see how the Mavericks – who are 5-7 at full strength – will make the playoffs but the Spurs – who are 5-6 and missing two of their three best players – will not. Hollinger’s formula is probably heavily mathematical, so he can’t account for injuries, and that’s part of the problem with taking a pure statistical approach to something like this. Tony Parker is due back in mid-December, while Ginobili is ahead of schedule and should be back a bit earlier. The Spurs are getting good play from George Hill and Roger Mason, and if they can stay near .500, they shouldn’t have a problem making the playoffs if Parker and Ginobili come back strong.

As for the Mavericks, barring a major injury to one of the other eight teams (including the Spurs), I don’t see how they make the postseason. Denver’s 8-4 record seems a little odd, but they are getting good play from Chauncey Billups, who has changed the team’s attitude defensively.

Even without Monta Ellis, Golden State has surprisingly kept its head above water, and if the Warriors can stay close to .500 until January (when Ellis is set to return), they would be a dark horse to make the playoffs.

Mark Cuban charged with insider trading

The SEC – that’s The Security and Exchanges Commission, not the Southeastern Conference – has filed insider trading charges against Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban.

The SEC alleges in a civil action that Mr. Cuban sold his entire 6% ownership stake on June 28, 2004, after learning that Mamma.com was raising money through a private investment in a public entity, or PIPE. The next day, on June 29, the company announced the PIPE financing and shares of the company dropped by more than 10%. By selling his stake, the SEC alleges, Mr. Cuban avoided more than $750,000 in losses.

In a PIPE transaction new shares are issued at a discount to the current trading price. An announcement of a PIPE transaction is often followed by a drop in the stock price as shareholders anticipate their stake will be diluted.

On one hand, I sort of admire all the time and money that Cuban puts into the Dallas Mavericks. I don’t think he actually knows all that much about basketball, but most owners don’t commit that much of themselves to the teams they own. Cuban is out there just about every night, cheering his team on. He’s also not afraid to make bold (but dumb) trades like the one that brought Jason Kidd to Dallas.

Then I think about how Cuban made his fortune. He started a company called Broadcast.com during the “internet boom” and he eventually sold the company to Yahoo for $5.9 billion in stock.

Most investors lost their proverbial asses during the internet bubble, but Cuban somehow walked away with almost $6 billion. Either Cuban was really smart to get out when he did or he was lucky enough to have the perfect timing.

Now there’s the news that this billionaire is willing to risk criminal prosecution just to save $750,000 on some stock. What’s the point? So you learn the company you own stock in is about to dilute your shares – is it worth the risk to save $750 K on the deal? Even if he doesn’t go to jail, he’s given himself a black eye as far as the public is concerned.

That doesn’t seem all that smart to me.

Has LeBron already made his mind up?

Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports says yes.

With James, the Cavaliers are running out of time. It’s two seasons and counting until he can become a free agent. To listen to Cleveland owner Dan Gilbert dismiss the possibility of James leaving in the summer of 2010 for a bigger market as a product of “bored sportswriters” is beyond laughable. These aren’t bored sportswriters, but a restless superstar and a stable of handlers seemingly sold on his exit.

Gilbert knows better, and so does everyone else inside and outside the Cavaliers. James has one foot out the door in Cleveland. From NBA executives, to Team USA staff and players, to sneak reps: They all believe James has one foot out of the hometown.

Privately, James’ circle had been telling people that they don’t just expect him to leave in the summer of 2010, but in the words of one James associate to a high-ranking league official: He’s gone.

This isn’t an indictment of Cavaliers GM Danny Ferry and the roster he’s constructed around his superstar. He’s done a good, creative job without chips to trade, without high draft picks. This won’t be a basketball decision as much as it will be James believing he needs the platform of a major market to transport himself into a bigger global entity.

Wojnarowski did describe a silver lining…

Here’s the good news for Cavaliers fans: Things can change in two years, and James’ preferred destination, the Nets, is a franchise falling apart. Over the summer, James publicly declared Brooklyn his favorite borough in New York, but the prospects of joining his kindred spirit, rapping mogul Jay-Z, is fading fast.

For James, two things had to happen for him to make the move to the Nets. First, they had to have a nucleus of players minimally comparable to the cast he’d be leaving in Cleveland. Between now and 2010, the Nets desperately need Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez to develop into frontline players.

But the biggest issue is this: James is never going to play for the New Jersey Nets. Brooklyn, yes. New Jersey? He doesn’t love Jay-Z that much. James needs to be walking into the Brooklyn palace that owner Bruce Ratner has been desperately trying to get financed and constructed for the 2011-2012 season.

Yet now, the Nets are such a vulnerable franchise, the $3.5 billion Atlantic Yards arena project in such doubt, ownership groups from Russia and Dubai have expressed interest in buying out Ratner and taking over the team, Yahoo! Sports has learned. So far, he has resisted, but he’s losing an estimated $30 million a year as court cases and a decaying economy have pushed the project to the brink of collapse.

Apparently, three other teams interest LeBron: the Knicks, the Lakers and the Mavericks.

For their part, Cleveland are “working furiously” to have plenty of cap space in the summer of 2010. If LeBron’s other options aren’t looking good, and the Cavs are able to acquire a guy like Chris Bosh (that’s the rumor, anyway) to play alongside their star, then LeBron might stay. At this point, the Cavs only have three players under contract for the 2010-11 season: Mo Williams, Delonte West and Daniel Gibson. At that point, the team will also have the option to keep J.J. Hickson for three more seasons.

The bad news is that the Cavs don’t have the salary cap flexibility or the trade pieces to make big improvements to the team until then. So they have to hope that LeBron makes this crucial decision later rather than sooner.

But it sounds as if the decision has already been made. Luckily for Cavs fans, a lot can happen in two years.

2008 NBA Preview: #11 Dallas Mavericks

Offseason Movement: The Mavs’ big move was to jettison Avery Johnson and hire Rick Carlisle as head coach. They also acquired Shawne Williams from the Pacers. Of course, last February the team traded Devin Harris and two first round picks for Jason Kidd. Kidd’s return to Dallas didn’t get off to a very good start.
Keep Your Eye On: Jason Kidd, PG
Kidd is in the final year of his contract (worth $21 million) so if things don’t go well to start the season, it’s not inconceivable that the Mavs could cut bait and trade him before the February deadline. The team is attempting to build around Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry, but all three players have topped out and it doesn’t look like they’ll be enough to get the Mavs over the hump. What’s worse – the Mavs gave up their best young prospect (Harris) to acquire Kidd, so if that experiment fails, the Mavs will not only have screwed themselves in the present, but they’ll have screwed themselves in the future, too.
The Big Question: Is this group good enough?
Nowitzki is still an All-Star caliber player and Howard and Kidd make up a more than adequate supporting cast. But there’s something missing with this group. Call it toughness, moxy, swagger, heart, whatever. I just don’t get the sense from this team that they have what it takes to make it to the Finals again. It’s sad, really, considering that, if not for the officials’ decision to send Dwyane Wade to the line for every ticky-tack foul, the Mavs would have beat the Heat in the Finals three years ago. Dirk should go down as one of the league’s all-time greatest players, but his team’s failure to close the deal in the 2006 Finals has seemingly sent the franchise into a tailspin. And no one, not Mark Cuban, not Avery Johnson, and not Jason Kidd, has been (or will be) able to pull them out of it.
Outlook: Desperate. Cuban is pulling out all the stops (i.e. mortgaging the franchise’s future) to win now. The Kidd trade was bold but ill-advised, as it undermined the long-term competitiveness of the club. Devin Harris is a good young point guard with loads of potential, and that kind of player is tough to come by. Now Cuban has hitched his wagon to a 35 year-old point guard whose best years are (far) behind him. This has the makings for a slow, steady decline.

Pacers ship Shawne Williams to Dallas

In a minor trade, GM Larry Bird sent Shawne Williams to the Dallas Mavericks for Eddie Jones and two second round draft picks.

Bird, the Pacers’ president, has made it clear he plans to repair the team’s image after several negative off-the-court issues in recent years. Williams, Indiana’s first-round draft pick in 2006, was dogged by three incidents involving police in the past 13 months.

“He’s got a lot of potential,” Bird told the Associated Press. “You hate to give up on those type of players, but with what we’re trying to do here, we felt it was best to move Shawne. This trade wasn’t made because he wasn’t talented enough, it was because of the other things.”

The Pacers already have traded Ron Artest and Stephen Jackson in the past three years for damaging the team’s reputation, and the Pacers have told Jamaal Tinsley not to show up to training camp after several scrapes with the law.

Williams will be reunited with new Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle, who coached the Pacers when Indiana drafted him out of Memphis in the first round in 2006.

“There’s no question Rick wanted him,” Bird said. “He was there when we drafted him. He knew the talent, he knew the kid.”

The writing was on the wall for Williams. It was just a matter of time before Bird sent him packing. He has talent, but needs a fresh start. Maybe he’ll get it with Carlisle and the Mavs.

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