‘Tis the season for NBA trade speculation. With the the contenders separated (for the most part, at least) from the pretenders, and the trade deadline fast approaching, the rumors are flying fast and furious. Chad Ford goes down the list of wings that might be on the move.
Here are a couple of interesting names:
Wally Szczerbiak, Cavs
There are a lot of expiring contracts out there, but none gets more attention than Szczerbiak’s. The Cavs aren’t interested in cap room right now. They want a championship.
Everyone in Cleveland is crossing their fingers that some desperate GM will pull a Chris Wallace and give away an All-Star for cap relief and late first-round picks. More often than not, it doesn’t happen. But with the economy turning sour and a scrum of teams trying to get under the cap in 2010, the Cavs might be able to pull it off.
Chance of trade: 60 percent
Vince Carter, Nets
Going into the season, no one predicted that Carter, at the age of 32, would put up All-Star numbers on a rebuilding team. But he has played his heart out and, with Devin Harris, has made the Nets respectable. Which means it’s the perfect time for Rod Thorn and Kiki Vandeweghe to throw him a farewell party.
Carter has garnered plenty of interest from a few championship contenders like Cleveland and Houston who see him as a nice veteran addition. The Nets should jump on any deal that gets them a combination of cap relief and picks. Getting the last three years and $51 million of his contract off their books has to be a priority right now.
Chance of trade: 45 percent
If the Nets want to get out from under Carter’s contract (which runs two more years at the tune of $33.6 million) now is the time to move him. He is playing All-Star caliber ball and, along with Devin Harris, has kept the Nets in the playoff hunt. The tough part about trading Carter is his age (32) and the fact that his contract extends through the 2010-11 season, so he’s not going to be attractive to teams looking to make a splash in the summer of 2010. Another big thing standing in the way for the Nets is the fact that they are very much in the playoff hunt. Do they want to throw the towel in on this season for future salary cap flexibility?
A potential Szczerbiak-for-Carter swap is interesting on a couple of fronts. The Cavs’ biggest weakness right now is shooting guard (though they could use another young big man as well). They have Szczerbiak, Delonte West (who is injured) and Daniel Gibson (who is shooting under 40% from the field). Some might say that Carter will be a distraction, but at this point in his career, he seems to be willing to put aside his ego (and stats) to win a championship and LeBron James is one of those players whose stature creates an environment that makes it easy for guys to fall in line. Just look at Mo Williams. He and Michael Redd clashed last year in Milwaukee, but we haven’t heard any complaints out of him this season.
Granted, winning solves everything, but that’s why the Carter trade might work. If the Cavs add Vinsanity and they break through and win a title (or at least make it to the Finals), the franchise is far more likely to retain LeBron next summer. But they run the risk of the trade not working and squandering their chance to sign a second big-name free agent in 2010 (assuming they’re able to re-sign LeBron). It’s sort of a Catch-22.
Word out of Cleveland is that they are happy with the status quo, but if they can make a Pau Gasol-type trade and acquire a great player for an expiring contract and a late first round draft pick or two, they’ll pull the trigger. And with the way Carter is playing, a Szczerbiak-for-Carter is in that ballpark.
But I don’t think the two teams will make a deal unless the Nets believe that the Cavs’ acquisition of Carter will ultimately backfire. Since New Jersey is one of the potential suitors for LeBron it behooves them to do everything they can to keep the Cavs from winning a title in the next two seasons. Do they believe that Carter will help or hinder LeBron’s quest?
I think we may very well see Szczerbiak on the move, but probably not to the Nets. After all, the Nets already rejected the offer once, and since then Carter looks better and Wally looks worse.
It would be surprising if the Cavs don’t move Szczerbiak at all. Right now, I don’t think they’d be favored if they faced the Lakers in the Finals or maybe even the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. If they can find a good player who doesn’t have major character issues and whose contract does not run into the 2010-11 season, they should pull the trigger.
Nelson will decide over the next week whether he will have surgery or attempt rehabilitation. If surgery is the option, his season is likely over. If he passes on the surgery, he’ll likely miss several weeks.
