On the heels of a 10-6 season and following trades for Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams, many people were expecting big things from the Cleveland Browns this year. In fact, not only have many fans, prognosticators and other media folk predicted an AFC North title for Cleveland, but some truly brave souls even touted the possibility of a Super Bowl appearance for a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1995. Following Monday night’s embarrassing (for the team and its fans, anyway) 37-34 preseason loss to the Giants — a game that saw the defending champs dominate Cleveland’s starters on their way to a 30-3 lead early in the second quarter before the benches tightened up the final score — those calling for greatness from the 2008 Browns may need to rethink their stance.
In fact, we don’t need to dig too far into the archives to find a prime example of a chic preseason pick that proved it wasn’t ready for prime time. One year after finishing 3-13, the New Orleans Saints won 10 games in 2006 and advanced all the way to the NFC Championship Game. They featured an explosive offense led by a prolific quarterback (Drew Brees) who took advantage of a slew of top-notch weapons (Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Deuce McAllister) en route to a Pro Bowl season and a shiny glass slipper heading into the 2007 campaign.
But the Saints’ Cinderella story went belly up from the get-go, losing 41-10 to the champion Colts on the season’s opening night and then dropping their next three games to start 0-4. New Orleans finally got into the win column in Week 6 against the Seahawks and then won their next three games to pull back to .500 at 4-4, but that would be the highlight of their uneven season, finishing out of the playoffs at 7-9. A season-ending knee injury to McAllister certainly didn’t help matters, but the biggest problem for the Saints was a defense that allowed more points (388) than the offense scored (379).
A closer look at New Orleans’ schedules for 2006 and 2007 reveals a troubling similarity: the 10 teams the Saints beat in 2006 had a combined .425 winning percentage (68-92), and the six teams they lost to owned a .520 winning percentage (50-46). In 2007, the seven teams they beat had a .437 winning percentage (49-63) while the nine teams that beat the Saints again owned a .520 winning percentage (75-69). What does that mean? For the most part, the Saints beat the teams they were supposed to beat in 2006 but couldn’t hold their own against the league’s better teams during the regular season. And while a 10-win season and an NFC Championship Game appearance were legitimate reasons for optimism heading into 2007, the trend held true last year, only this time it produced three fewer wins. In other words, the Saints weren’t a decidedly worse team in 2007 than they were in 2006, but they weren’t any better either, and they also weren’t as lucky.
So what does this tell us about the 2008 Browns? Maybe nothing, maybe everything. Cleveland beat 10 teams last year with a dreadful combined winning percentage of .343 (55-105), while the six teams they lost to sported a .572 percentage (55-41), a group that included the 16-0 Patriots. So just like the Saints before them, the Browns beat the teams they were supposed to beat but fell short against better competition. And just like the Saints, the Browns stuffed the stat sheet with breakout QB Derek Anderson taking full advantage of weapons like Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and a revitalized Jamal Lewis while the defense was routinely gashed for big plays and big points.
Simply put, if the Browns want to prove their backers right and avoid the letdown that plagued the Saints last year, they’ll need to play better against better competition, especially on the defensive side of the ball. And they’ll need to do it on a much bigger stage, with the team scheduled for five primetime games throughout the season, including three on Monday night against the Bills, the Eagles and, ominously, the Giants. Beyond that, there are precious few gimmes on the schedule, with games against the Cowboys and Steelers to open the season, and matchups with the Jaguars, Redskins, Titans and Colts as well.
Cleveland is certainly talented enough to challenge for the AFC North crown and make a run in the playoffs, but so were the Saints last year. If this is going to be the kind of magical season that fans on the Erie shores have been waiting on for ages, the Browns will have to show more than they did Monday night.
Anderson has been sidelined since Aug. 18 with a mild concussion following a second-quarter sack by New York Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora. Anderson hit his head on the turf during the play and missed the final two preseason games.
