Bill Simmons is getting a lot of praise for his recent column, “Welcome to the No Benjamins Association,” where he outlines just how grim things are for the NBA. The entire piece is worth a read, but here are a few highlights…
On Portland standing pat with Raef LaFrentz’s expiring contract…
Teams wanted to dump clearly superior players on Portland at the deadline just to get Raef’s insurance money. Phoenix would have traded Shaq for Raef and Channing Frye’s expiring contract in a heartbeat. Jersey supposedly offered Vince Carter and two protected No. 1’s for Raef’s contract, and Milwaukee supposedly would have given up Richard Jefferson and either Joe Alexander or a future No. 1 for it. Incredibly, the Blazers turned everyone down. And this is a team bankrolled by Paul Allen.
I hadn’t heard about those offers from New Jersey and Milwaukee, though Simmons is more plugged in than I am. However, he’s trying to make a point, so maybe he’s running with a rumor because it supports that point. I find it hard to believe that the Blazers passed on those offers, but you never know.
On some of the moves that weren’t made…
Sacramento gift-wrapped the two prizes (Brad Miller and John Salmons) in a seven-player deal just to clear money. The Lakers dumped their best 3-point bomber (Vlad Radmanovic) to clear cap space down the road (and they’re only trying to win a title). Cleveland passed up Shaq for free (or in this case, Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring deal plus Sasha Pavlovic) because it couldn’t take on cash. New Orleans tried to give away Tyson Chandler (only its third-best player) for expiring contracts before The Team That Shall Not Be Named vetoed the trade because it “didn’t like his physical” (or, as many insiders believe, because co-owner Aubrey McClendon had second thoughts about taking on Chandler’s contract since McClendon reportedly lost close to $2 billion in the Wall Street crash).
The Cavs really passed on a Szczerbiak-and-Pavlovic-for-Shaq deal? The same revitalized Shaq that is averaging 18 points and nine rebounds, and is shooting 61% from the field this season? Would the Cavs really pass on taking on his salary at the expense of Wally and Sasha? I realize that Dan Gilbert is a mortgage guy, so I’m sure he had at least a finger or two in the “bad loan” pool, but he must know that in order to keep LeBron next summer his team really needs to get to the Finals. The franchise isn’t going to be worth anything if James bolts. (Well, it will be worth something, but you get the drift.)
On NBA attendance supposedly being up 1.9 percent this season…
(Amazing but true fact confirmed to me by multiple people: Memphis makes about $300,000 per home game. That’s gross, not net. Even more amazing, four or five other teams are within $100,000 of that number.) So, yeah, attendance is “up” 1.9 percent, as this recent Sports Business Daily story would lead you to believe. But not really. Especially when you include Seattle’s move to a sold-out arena in Hijack City and how it skewed the overall numbers.
If I’m the Director of Marketing for one of these struggling teams and I have a piece of concessions or parking, I don’t worry about “devaluing” my product in this economy. I put butts in the seats. I don’t care if I have to start a website to auction off all available seats starting at $1. The team will make a little scratch via food and parking and maybe the home crowd will push the team to a few extra wins. Most importantly, people will get used to going to NBA games again, so when the economy comes back, the team will have a bigger fan base to draw from. Is it fair to the season ticket holders that paid a premium for their seats? No, but life isn’t fair and they understand that the franchise has to do what the franchise has to do to stay afloat.
On a potential lockout in 2011…
Teams are locked into swollen contracts that suddenly make no sense, whether it’s non-franchise players making franchise money (Vince, T-Mac, Shaq, Brand, Baron, Jermaine O’Neal, Dalembert, Okafor, etc.) or overpaid role players making six to 600 times what they should be making (Marko Jaric, Nazr Mohammed, Larry Hughes, Radmanovic, Mo Peterson, etc.). In the irony of ironies, the league finally learned something that fans knew all along — nobody was buying a ticket to see the likes of Luol Deng, Gerald Wallace or Corey Maggette, much less Tim Thomas or Andres Nocioni.
They will pick the next fight, and again, they will win. When the players’ union waves a white flag and the lockout finally ends (2012? 2013?), I predict a raise of the individual salary max (to $24-25 million), a softer salary cap, a restriction on long-term contracts (can’t be more than three years unless you’re re-signing your own star), the elimination of opt-out clauses and the midlevel exemption, and the rookie age limit rising to 20. That’s seven predictions in all … and I bet I’ll end up nailing six.
Simmons goes on to discuss how the league’s collective fear of trading has hurt the quality of the league, it’s lousy officiating and how likely it is that several teams change cities over the next few years. He doesn’t think the NBA will contract — David Stern is too stubborn for that — but he does think it’s in for a major makeover in the next five to ten years.
It’s grim stuff, but a great read.
