Animal Kingdom (C), with jockey John Velazquez in the irons, wins the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, May 7, 2011. REUTERS/Jeff Haynes (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT HORSE RACING)
It’s funny how much things can change in a matter of days. Animal Kingdom wasn’t even on most bettors’ radar last week heading into the Kentucky Derby and now observers are wondering if he can become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978.
At the start of the week, Animal Kingdom was a 30/1 long shot to win Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. He took a backseat to more intriguing contenders like Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man and Twice The Appeal (ridden by popular jockey Calvin Borel). In fact, Animal Kingdom even switched jockeys the day before the race when John R. Velazquez lost his mount with Uncle Mo, who was scratched due to a gastrointestinal issue.
But Velazquez rode Animal Kingdom to his first career win at the Kentucky Derby and now the pair is the talk of the horseracing world. In fact, along with Dialed In, Animal Kingdom is a 4/1 favorite to win the Preakness on May 21.
Of course, most horses that win the Kentucky Derby are considered the favorite to win the Preakness. Oddsmakers base their lines on how they think the public will wager and causal bettors are instantly drawn to the Kentucky Derby winner when it comes to betting the Preakness. Just because a horse wins at Churchill Downs doesn’t mean he has what it takes to win at Pimlico and Belmont Park. In 2009, Borel rode Mine That Bird to victory in the Kentucky Derby but finished second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont. In 2008, many felt that Big Brown had the best chance of winning the Triple Crown in the last decade and after winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, he flopped in the Belmont and finished ninth.
But here’s the thing: I think Animal Kingdom does have what it takes. In fact, I think if he can win in two weeks at Pimlico, he’ll cruise at the Belmont (barring injury, of course). The concerns about him coming into the Kentucky Derby were that a) he only had four races under his belt and b) that he could run on dirt. Well, he’s now raced five times in his career with three wins and two second-place finishes. And he apparently runs on dirt just fine, as his win at the Kentucky Derby proved.
My bigger concern for Animal Kingdom heading into the Preakness is Dialed In. I don’t think we saw his best effort at Churchill Downs last week, as he hung in the back of the pack too long before finally making his move down the stretch. He finished a disappointing 8th but again, I don’t think we saw his best effort. (It would also be interesting to see if Uncle Mo could make a recovery and run in the Preakness, although I think those odds are between “slim” and “no way in hell.”)
But if Animal Kingdom can eke out a win in two weeks, I like his chances of capturing the Belmont and giving horseracing fans their first Triple Crown winner in nearly 34 years. As the overused, clichéd sports take goes: He certainly has all the tools.
