Tag: 2010 NCAA Tournament (Page 13 of 17)

      Need help filling out your March Madness bracket? (Part 2)

      March 15, 2010 /

      Here’s Part 1, in case you missed it.

      Now that we’ve narrowed the field from 65 to 32, it’s time to tackle the second round and beyond. When filling out your bracket, it’s not a bad idea to start with your Final Four picks and work backwards. I looked at the last six Final Fours to get an idea of the profile of a FF team and discovered the following:

      22 of 24 FF teams (92%) finished the tournament with adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies (i.e. points per possession adjusted for strength of schedule) in the top 30 (LSU ’06, George Mason ’06).
      Here’s the list of teams that qualify heading into 2010: Duke, Kansas, Ohio St., Syracuse, West Virginia, BYU, Wisconsin, K-State, Kentucky and Texas. I’ll include Georgetown as well since their ranked #33 in defensive efficiency and could climb into the top 30 by tourney’s end.

      22 of 24 FF teams (92%) finished the tournament with a Pythagorean win ranking in the top 10 (#23 George Mason ’06, #14 Villanova ’09).
      Win percent can rise about a hundredth of a point over the course of the tournament. (Last year, Michigan State started at .943 and finished at .954 and Villanova went from .929 to .938.) So looking at the Pomeroy numbers, we should be looking at the top 12 teams — Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Syracuse, Kentucky, BYU, WVU, K-State, Maryland, Georgetown and Baylor — as potential FF teams.

      21 of 24 FF teams were in top 7 in either offensive or defensive efficiency (George Mason ’06, Michigan State ’09, Villanova ’09).
      Here are the teams that are in the top 10 in either efficiency: Duke (both), Kansas (both), California (off), Notre Dame (off), Baylor (off), Maryland (off), Ohio St. (off), Villanova (off), Syracuse (off), Georgetown (off), Florida State (def), Temple (def), Purdue (def), Wisconsin (def), Tennessee (def), Clemson (def) and Kentucky (def). I’d include WVU (11th – off) and BYU (12th – off) as well because they would likely finish in the top 7 with a FF run.

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      College Basketball, March Madness

      Need help filling out your March Madness bracket?

      March 15, 2010 /

      Looking for picks for 2011? Click here.

      Hundreds of writers will write hundreds of columns/articles/posts about the 2010 NCAA Tournament, so you may be wondering, why should I listen to this clown?

      In 2007, I picked the winner (Florida) along with one other Final Four team (#2 seed Georgetown). In 2008, I picked the winner (Kansas) along with two other Final Four teams (#1-seed UCLA and #1-seed North Carolina). That was enough to line my pocket with a little cash from a pool each year.

      2009 was another story. Even though I am on record saying that if Ty Lawson’s toe were 90-95% healthy that North Carolina would have been my pick, I ultimately didn’t have enough confidence in Lawson’s health — special thanks Dick Vitale for calling it “cartoonishly” swollen, stoking my fears — to pick the Tar Heels last season. I picked only one Final Four team (#1-seed UConn) and my winner (Pitt) lost in the Elite Eight to Villanova.

      Still, there is a method to March Madness. First, I pull in Jeff Sagarin’s regular season rankings. I also consider Ken Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive efficiency stats, along with his Pythagorean win percentage.

      Over the last three years, teams with a 3+ point advantage in Sagarin’s “predictor” rating have won 116 of 141 games (82.3%). In 2009, if a team had at least a 65% expected win rate according to Pomeroy’s Pythagorean calculation, they won 33 of 40 games (82.5%). So I won’t stray too far from these two indicators if they both agree that a certain team is going to win.

      But not every game is so clear cut. Over the last three years, if there were 141 games that had a Sagarin favorite of at least three points, that means that there were 48 games that did not. My research has found that a Sagarin advantage of 0-2 points yields a 17-21 record and an advantage of 2-3 points yields a 5-5 record, so if the Sagarin advantage is fewer than three points, the game is basically a toss up.

      For these games, I’ll look at other factors, like location of the game, offensive and defensive efficiencies, matchups, injuries, current play, and how each team fits the Giant Killers profile. In short, if a game is a toss up, it pays to go with the underdog because most people are going to go with the favorite.

      So enough with the preamble, let’s dive right in.

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      College Basketball, March Madness

      Joe Lunardi gets 64 of 65 right

      March 14, 2010 /

      A quick look at Joe Lunardi’s final Bracketology shows that he picked 64 of 65 teams correctly, missing only the Florida Gators, who as a #10 seed were fairly safe as far as getting into the tournament. Lunardi had Illinois getting the final at-large bid, but the Gators got it instead.

      I feel for Mississippi State, who just missed an automatic bid by losing to Kentucky in overtime. They beat Florida and Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament, but bad road losses to Rider, Alabama and Auburn apparently did them in.

      See the full bracket here.

      If you need help filling out your bracket, be sure to check back Monday afternoon for my full set of picks.

      College Basketball

      Kentucky nips Mississippi State in OT

      March 14, 2010 /

      The Bulldogs were one-tenth of one second away from locking up an NCAA bid. They were up three with under ten seconds to play, so they elected to foul Kentucky’s Eric Bledsoe so the Wildcats wouldn’t have an opportunity to tie the game with a three. He made the first free throw and Kentucky rebounded the intentional miss. John Wall badly missed a long jumper to tie it, but DeMarcus Cousins was there to put in the game-tying bucket as time expired.

      With the way Kentucky celebrated after the basket — remember, they only tied the game, they didn’t win it — I thought they might lay an egg in overtime, but Wall hit a leaning three-pointer to give the Wildcats a five-point cushion, and eventually won 75-74.

      For a guy who posted 17 points, nine assists, eight rebounds and five steals, it sure didn’t seem like Wall played all that well. Aside from the leaning three, he missed three shots in crunch time and turned the ball over once. In fact, he should have had another turnover in overtime when he took three steps on an attempted layup that was called a goaltend. It’s going to be interesting to see how he performs in the clutch as the NCAA Tournament wears on.

      For the Bulldogs, it sure seems like they should get a tourney bid. They played Kentucky very tough during the regular season and in a hostile environment in the conference tournament. The Bulldogs’ fate may lie in Minnesota’s hands. If the Gophers lay an egg against Ohio State, Mississippi State could get their bid. There’s also a chance that the committee will knock Virginia Tech, Wake Forest or even Utah State out for disappointing play down the stretch.

      College Basketball

      Why Minnesota or Mississippi State won’t make the cut

      March 14, 2010 /

      It looks like at least one good team is going to be left out of the NCAA Tournament. Since Houston upset UTEP in the C-USA final and New Mexico St. beat Utah St. in the WAC final, there are two at-large bids that are no longer available to the teams on the bubble, so fans of Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Florida, Illinois, Ole Miss and Seton Hall will be pulling out their hair on Sunday hoping that their team gets a bid.

      In fact, I’d go so far as to say that the final two slots are down to three teams — Virginia Tech, Minnesota and Mississippi State. I’m not a bracketologist or anything, but watching Lunardi’s page and knowing that Minnesota and Mississippi State are the only two teams still alive on his bubble, and it seems pretty clear that the Gophers’ and Bulldogs’ conference tourney runs have certainly worked in their favor.

      Minnesota blew out a very good Purdue team yesterday and Mississippi State nipped a solid Vanderbilt squad. Minnesota’s numbers are better and if both teams lose today, it looks like the Gophers will get the nod. But if the Bulldogs can upset Kentucky, even if Minnesota beats Ohio State, Mississippi State will make the tournament via automatic bid. In fact, if both teams win, Virginia Tech’s poor performance in the ACC tournament will probably come back to haunt them.

      Since Utah St. and UTEP are very likely to get bids, it looks like the window is just about closed for Florida, Illinois, Ole Miss and Seton Hall, who can’t help their case today.

      But every year, the committee comes out of left field with a pick that nobody was expecting. Fans are focused on late-season performance while the committee says it looks at the “whole body of work,” which can result in a team getting something of a surprise bid.

      So there is hope…just don’t get your hopes up.

      College Basketball

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