ESPN’s John Hollinger used his Player Efficiency Rating to estimate the number of games this group would win if surrounded by 10 minimum salary veterans.
Using my preseason prediction model, I plugged in a team with those three players and used fairly conservative estimates for what they might produce in the coming season — a Player Efficiency Rating of 29 for James, 26 for Wade and 23 for Bosh. I gave James 3,100 minutes, Wade 2,850 and Bosh 2,600.
For every other minute played by Team Trinity, I inserted my replacement-level figure of a 10 PER — this is what I input when a team has an empty rotation spot or has it filled by a player projected to produce less than 10. I never go any lower than this and have never felt a need to, as virtually anyone who produces at a lesser rate (once we include defensive value) is quickly replaced.
OK, that’s my methodology; now for the result. This team, believe it or not, projected to win 61 games.
And that assumes all replacement level players. The roster could improve at midseason when a vet is bought out or waived, and next summer when the team would have the various exceptions available to add higher-priced talent.
