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2010 Fantasy Football Preview: QBs

GLENDALE, AZ - JANUARY 10: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers throws a pass against the Arizona Cardinals during the 2010 NFC wild-card playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium on January 10, 2010 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

The quarterback position is important in fantasy football, just not as important as it is in real football. Unless you play in a league that requires two starting QBs, there is plenty of depth at the position which means you have plenty of options.

Strategy #1: Draft a stud.
This is the simplest way to approach the position. Sometime in the first three rounds, pick the best QB available. This year, it appears that there are seven QBs going in the first 36 picks: Aaron Rodgers (1.08), Drew Brees (1.09), Peyton Manning (2.04), Tom Brady (3.01), Tony Romo (3.09), Matt Schaub (3.11) and Philip Rivers (3.12). These guys have a few things in common: 1) they’re good, 2) they’re entrenched in good situations, and 3) they have good receivers to throw to.

One strategy is to set aside one of your first three picks for one these players. The upside is that you probably won’t have to worry about your QB position. You’ll run this guy out there every week and won’t have to make any decisions about whom to start. The downside is that you won’t be using one of your early round picks on another position, like RB and WR, that does not have as much depth as the QB position.

Strategy #2: Wait for value to emerge.
This approach doesn’t preclude taking a QB in the first few rounds, but it doesn’t mandate it either. You might wait until the late 2nd/early 3rd and see if Rodgers/Brees/Manning are still on the board. Or wait until the 4th or the 5th and see if one of the other four players are available. If it’s the latter, then you managed to get a 3rd round QB a round or two later, which allowed you to get a stud QB and use a 3rd round pick on that RB or WR you had your eye on.

The ‘wait for value’ approach could also stretch into the middle rounds as you wait for a well-priced QB. If that value never emerges, don’t fret, because you’re still well positioned for…

Strategy #3: Quarterback By Committee
I wrote a far more detailed post about this last week, but suffice to say, with the depth at the QB position, 2-3 middle- to late-round QBs with schedules that combine well (i.e. favorable matchups line up so there’s usually a good one every week) will form a QBBC that will perform at Top 5 levels at a fraction of the price.

My top recommendation this year is to grab Eli Manning (or Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco) in the 8th, and then Ben Roethlisberger in the 10th. For a three-man combo utilizing only late rounders, grab Big Ben in the 10th, Alex Smith in the 11th and David Garrard in the 12th.

The benefit to this strategy is that you won’t lose much at the QB spot and will be able to load up with tons of talent and depth at RB, WR and even TE in the early rounds. You’ll also have 2-3 capable signal callers on the roster to turn to if one gets injured. What do you do if Drew Brees goes down?

The downside? You can go into the season with a plan, but player and defensive performance may make picking a starter each week more of a chore than you’d like it to be. This is not necessarily the right strategy for an owner who wants a low-maintenance team.

Since I’ve already written extensively about the QBBC, and you don’t have to put much thought into picking a stud early in the draft, here are a few QBs that look like especially good values, even at their current average draft positions.

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Was Richard Jefferson’s deal prearranged?

Oct 14, 2008 - Guangzhou, Guangdong, China - RICHARD JEFFERSON of NBA's Milwaukee Bucks attends a training session at the Guangzhou Gymnasium in Guangzhou. NBA China Games 2008, featuring the opening game between Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks, will tip off in Guangzhou on Oct. 15 Photo via Newscom

John Hollinger breaks down the financial impact of Richard Jefferson’s decision to opt out and his resulting contract with the Spurs. Skip to the bolded text if you’re not interested in the nuts and bolts.

On the other hand, they got under the tax solely because Richard Jefferson opted out of a final year on his deal that would have paid him $15 million. This one raised eyebrows in front offices around the league, many of which suspected that there was a prearranged deal between the two parties.

This isn’t an outlandish premise, given that:

• Jefferson told reporters in April that it might be worth it to opt out if he could get a four-year, $40 million deal (he said it right here on April 11).

• That’s almost to the dollar the deal he received in July.

• Doing so got the Spurs out of the luxury tax and allowed them to sign Splitter at a discount.

• There didn’t appear to be any kind of serious bid from another team to drive up Jefferson’s price.

That said, we have no smoking gun that there was any kind of prearranged deal between the Spurs and Jefferson. We don’t even have a smokeless gun. All we have is the circumstantial evidence above, as well as two other pieces of information:

1. The Spurs don’t sign bad contracts.

2. This is the worst contract of the summer.

Seriously, four years and $39 million for Richard Jefferson? Did Isiah Thomas take over the franchise and not tell anybody? Wings who depend on athleticism have a rough time in their late 20s and early 30s; Jefferson just turned 30. He wasn’t a $10 million per year player two years ago, and sure as heck isn’t going to be one two years down the road.

Follow the money, however. Jefferson’s opt-out and lower-salaried return means the Spurs will save about $17 million in salary, luxury tax and tax distributions this year (if one presumes Splitter was coming regardless). Jefferson’s new deal cost $31 million after this season, which is all we care about since the Spurs were paying him in 2010-11 either way. Subtract $17 million from $31 million and you end up with Jefferson’s deal as a three-year, $14 million extension, which seems eminently reasonable … if you were going to prearrange such a thing.

In other words, it was in the Spurs’ benefit for Jefferson to opt out and sign a longer deal at a lower average salary due to the cost savings this season. That savings put the Spurs under the cap and allowed them to sign Tiago Splitter, which Hollinger calls the best contract of the summer.

Hmm.

So much for Dez Bryant’s attitude being a concern

December 30, 2008 San Diego, CA..wide receiver Dez Bryant #1 of Oklahoma State catches a pass and runs in for a touchdown in the first quarter in action during the Holiday Bowl College football game against Oregon at Qualcomm Stadium on December 30, 2008 in San Diego, California..Louis Lopez/CSM Photo via Newscom

Heading into April’s NFL draft, the scouting report on Dez Bryant read something like this: Great talent, but has immaturity issues that could lead to problems at the next level.

But thus far, the reports out of Dallas on Bryant have been outstanding – so much so that one would think the Cowboys just drafted the second coming of Michael Irvin.

Late last week, Bryant signed a five-year, $11.8 million contract, which included $8.3 million guaranteed. He was the first player selected in the first round to agree to a deal with his team, which is ironic considering some in the media thought he might wind up being the next Michael Crabtree in terms of rookie wide receiver that held out.

To his credit, Bryant hasn’t been a distraction, a diva or anything outside of impressive so far in Dallas. Granted, he only has a couple of OTA sessions and one training camp weekend under his belt, but it’s hard not to fall in love with his potential. In fact, his practice performances over the weekend were reportedly “electrifying” according to the Dallas Fort Worth Star-Telegram. The paper says he was making one-handed catches along the sidelines and was praised by his coaching staff and teammates.

Of course, Bryant still has a long ways to go in order to prove himself both on and off the field. The concerns about him coming out of Oklahoma State didn’t emerge out of thin air and he could still wind up being a headache for the Cowboys over the long-term. But considering the biggest complaint about him so far has been over his refusal to carry Roy Williams shoulder pads after practice, his NFL career is off to a great start. (Besides, Williams is stealing money from the Cowboys anyway so he should have to carry his own damn pads.)

Michael Vick won’t be punished by NFL for birthday party shooting

ARLINGTON, TX - JANUARY 9: Michael Vick #7 of the Philadelphia Eagles looks on from the sideline in the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys during the 2010 NFC wild-card playoff game at Cowboys Stadium on January 9, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Michael Vick can breathe easy, as the NFL has completed its investigation of the shooting that occurred following his 30th birthday party in Virginia Beach early last month and will not punish the Eagles’ QB.

From the Philadelphia Inquirer:

Quanis Phillips, one of Vick’s codefendants in the dogfighting ring, was shot in the leg outside the party.

Virginia Beach police say they know the identity of the shooter but cannot file charges because witnesses are uncooperative.

Vick has not been implicated and his attorney has said he was gone from the scene before the shooting took place.

Vick was never a suspect in the shooting, but there was some question over whether or not he violated his probation by hanging out with a co-defendant from his dog fighting trial.

In the end, it appears as though the NFL couldn’t justify punishing him without more facts, which was the right course of action. Phillips could have been an unwanted guest and could have showed up at the party uninvited. As I wrote when this news broke, it’s not a crime to celebrate your birthday and if Vick had no idea that Phillips would show up, then it wouldn’t be fair for the NFL to punish him.

That said, Vick is still fortunate that this situation didn’t turn ugly for him. He’s already on thin ice as it is and one slip up could cost him the rest of his career, or whatever career he has left. It would be wise for him to keep a low profile from here on out.

Hornets not listening to trade offers for Chris Paul

Chris Paul and the Hornets are going to sit down today, and in preparation for that meeting, the team is turning away all trade inquiries for Chris Paul.

The New Orleans Hornets prepared for their highly anticipated sitdown with star guard Chris Paul by turning away the latest flurry of trade calls from other teams, according to NBA front-office sources.

Sources told ESPN.com that teams inquiring about Paul’s availability in recent days — and there have been several after persistent media reports suggesting that Paul will formally request to be traded at a meeting Monday — were greeted with the same resistance to Paul offers that the Hornets have maintained for months.

“They say they aren’t moving him,” one rival team executive said of the Hornets.

Sources with knowledge of New Orleans’ thinking said over the weekend that the Hornets’ stance is unlikely to change, at least in the short term, even if Paul himself tells the Hornets for the first time that he wants out.

When it comes down to it, the Hornets hold the keys. Paul has two more years remaining on his contract before he can opt out and become a free agent in the Summer of 2012.

But whenever a superstar says he wants to be traded, he usually gets his wish. Kobe Bryant is the exception, not the rule, because he was unwilling to go to a team that wasn’t up to snuff. Paul already has a list of four or five teams (New York, Orlando, Portland, Dallas and possibly the Lakers) that he’d play for and there are probably a few more teams (Houston, Oklahoma City) who could be in the running as well.

The chances are slim that the Hornets will be able to convince him to stay. They have to prove (or at least have a plan) to turn the team into a contender in the next two years, or else they’ll get nothing for Paul when he bolts in 2012. They haven’t shown that they’re committed to winning (i.e. willing to spend) over the past few months, though they’ve been a bit schizophrenic, financially-speaking (by trading for Emeka Okafor and his monster contract and then turning around and handing the #11 pick over to the Thunder).

GM Jeff Bower is out, and Dell Demps is in. He worked for the Spurs, so he knows how a winning organization is run. But he better have a good plan in place if he hopes to convince Paul to stop all of this trade talk. It sure seems like we’ve passed the point of no return with regard to Paul staying put.

But the Hornets were wise to play things close to the vest over the last week. It does them no good to talk to other teams about trading Paul if they are truly hoping to keep him. All that would do is fuel speculation that he’s available and essentially push him out the door. There is plenty of time to get the best possible deal if the Hornets choose to go that route.

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