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      2010 Fantasy Football Preview: Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC)

      July 27, 2010 /

      All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

      Very few defenses are elite year to year, and performance can be tough to predict. One way to approach the position is to form a committee of two (or more) defenses that have favorable combined schedules but are being drafted in much later rounds than the so-called elite defenses. The idea is that a mediocre defense with a great matchup will provide approximately the same production as a great defense with a mediocre or bad matchup.

      Clayton Gray of Footballguys.com does an excellent job of compiling the strength of schedule data, and he even writes his own DTBC column (though he calls it ‘TDBC’). However, I like to go a step further and add the impact of home and away games, as middling defenses have a tendency to score more fantasy points at home.

      Last year, my top recommended combination was Green Bay and Dallas, which turned out well as both teams turned out to have Top 10 fantasy defenses. While I would have been better off just running the Packers out there every week, the duo’s recommended schedule netted 135 points (under a high performance scoring system), which were DT5-type numbers. My alternate recommendation, GB/ARI, netted 142 points, so DTBC does work.

      Here’s how I identify the top DTBC combinations:

      1. Use FBG’s SOS for DT9-DT28 along with David Dodds’ defensive projections to produce a week-by-week estimate for each defense.
      I eliminated NYJ, MIN, GB, PHI, BAL, PIT, DAL and SF from the study because all eight defenses are being drafted by the 12th round, which is just too early to start a DTBC. Please note that I don’t use Dodds’ fantasy point projections, just the projections for points allowed, sacks, interceptions, fumbles and touchdowns scored. So the point totals won’t look the same.

      2. Apply home/away adjustment.
      With relation to a team’s mean performance, I found that middling defenses (DT6-DT25) scored 2.8% higher at home in 2009 and 8.6% higher in 2008. I took the average (5.7%) and applied a bonus to home games and a handicap to away games. The more home games, the better.

      3. Run the numbers for the resulting 190 possible combinations to find the best DTBCs.
      I also calculated the playoff averages for Weeks 14-16 (and just Weeks 15 & 16 for a two-week playoff system) as a tiebreaker.

      So now I’m armed with a list of 190 possibilities sorted by total projected points. But numbers aren’t enough. I want a real-world perspective on this list. So I enlist the help of our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, to give his thoughts on the defenses in question. After some discussion, we narrow the list of the best candidates to eight teams: SD, NO, NYG, CIN, MIA, CHI, NE and IND. When picking our DTBC, we shouldn’t stray from these eight teams.

      Here are Anthony’s rankings along with his thoughts on each defense:

      Continue reading »

      External Sports, Fantasy Football, NFL

      Patriots make wise decision to place Wes Welker on PUP list

      July 27, 2010 /
      HOUSTON - JANUARY 03: Wide receiver Wes Welker #83 of the New England Patriots is tended to by medical personnel after injuring his leg against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium on January 3, 2010 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

      When fantasy football owners woke up this morning and saw the news that the Patriots had placed receiver Wes Welker on the Physically Unable to Perform list, their first reaction was likely to adjust their draft boards. (Actually, their first reaction was probably to crap themselves and then adjust their draft boards, but that’s gross so just forget I wrote it. For realsies – just put it out of your mind.)

      But the Welker decision was like most decisions Bill Belichick and the Patriots have made throughout the years: smart.

      Welker knows how to catch a screen pass in Belichick’s offense. He’s been doing it since 2007 and he’s quite good at it, might I add. So there’s no reason to rush him back for the start of training camp, even if he’s medically cleared to start practicing.

      Training camp is mostly beneficial for three kinds of players: Rookies, veterans who are unfamiliar with the offense or defense, and players who are out of shape. Welker isn’t a rookie, he knows Belichick’s offense like the back of his hand and even though he might not be in game shape, he’s been working out for months and probably isn’t the second coming of Terrence Cody.

      Seven months ago he shredded his knee, which some in the medical field (dentist, I believe) claim takes time to heal. Welker can come off the PUP list at any point over the next couple of weeks, so if the Patriots deem him ready to go, then they can active him and get him ready for season.

      Assuming he doesn’t suffer any setbacks in his rehabilitation, then there should be no panic in Beantown.

      External Sports, NFL

      Dez Bryant says he was unaware of shoulder pads tradition

      July 27, 2010 /
      ARLINGTON, TX - JANUARY 9: Roy E. Williams #11 of the Dallas Cowboys is tackled by Sheldon Brown #24 of the Philadelphia Eagles after gaining 17-yards on a second quarter catch during the 2010 NFC wild-card playoff game at Cowboys Stadium on January 9, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

      After being scrutinized for refusing to carry teammate Roy Williams’ shoulder pads following a recent training camp practice, Cowboys’ rookie Dez Bryant says he didn’t know that the gesture was a tradition in the NFL.

      “I didn’t know nothing about no tradition,” Bryant said. “The only thing about me … when I try to do something right, ya’ll try and turn it negative and I don’t feel like that’s right. I’m trying my best to do the right thing but it seems like I can’t do the right thing because every little thing that I do ya’ll watching it and try to make a big deal out of it.”

      Some are trying to make a bigger deal out of this situation than it really is, but Bryant says that everything between him and Williams is fine now, so the issue should be dead. Bryant wasn’t aware of the tradition and now he is. Griping.

      Like I wrote yesterday, I think Williams should carry his own pads seeing as how he’s stealing from the Cowboys with that ridiculous salary of his. In fact, I think both Williams should have to carry Drew Pearson’s shoulder pads.

      External Sports, NFL

      Chris Paul still wants out

      July 27, 2010 /

      Ken Berger of CBSSports.com says that what we saw from the Hornets’ brass on Monday was a ‘smokescreen’:

      “The telltale thing is that Chris Paul won’t comment publicly other than what was released about it,” said a person familiar with Paul’s strategy. “Leon Rose didn’t come out and say, ‘Chris is happy in New Orleans.’ If he was happy, they would’ve said that. … The only way they can get close to full value is to say, ‘You guys can’t make trade demands.’ They’re orchestrating this thing to likely move him.”

      The Hornets, meanwhile, have been looking at Orlando, Charlotte and New Jersey as potentially attractive trade partners once the firestorm settles down, according to one of the people with direct knowledge of the Hornets’ strategy. Two other sources familiar with the situation confirmed prior discussions involving the Bobcats and Nets and said those talks are expected to advance in the coming days.

      Berger has emerged as one of the league’s more plugged-in writers, but one has to wonder how close this ‘person familiar with Paul’s strategy’ actually is to the man himself.

      Paul doesn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract, so the Hornets can send him wherever they want. The Nets are interesting trade partner due to the upside of Derrick Favors. I doubt New Jersey would give up Brook Lopez, but a deal that included Favors along with salary cap relief might be appealing to the Hornets.

      As for Charlotte, it just doesn’t look like the Bobcats have a young piece on the level of Favors (or the Gallinari/Randolph combination from the Knicks). Tyrus Thomas has spent most of his potential capital and Gerald Wallace is getting on in years.

      Favors can’t be traded until August 15, though an agreement in principle could be made sooner than that. If the Nets can come out of the summer with a core of Paul and Lopez (while possibly turning Devin Harris into some help on the wing), it will salvage an otherwise disappointing summer.

      External Sports, Fantasy Basketball, NBA, News, Rumors & Gossip

      Terrell Owens to the Jets? Pass.

      July 27, 2010 /
      ATLANTA - DECEMBER 27: Terrell Owens #81 of the Buffalo Bills against the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on December 27, 2009 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

      T.O. to NY? It kind of has a nice ring to it, but that’s about all it has.

      With Santonio Holmes set to miss the first four weeks of the season due to a suspension, signing Owens seems like a logical move for the Jets on paper. But in reality, what happens after Holmes returns? Owens goes home?

      The pecking order in the Jets’ passing game this year will go a little something like this: Holmes (once he returns), Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, Al Toon. As you can see, there aren’t enough passes to go around if T.O. were thrown into the mix, especially when you consider that Mark Sanchez is still trying to develop as a passer.

      Which is another thing: T.O. must be avoided so that Sanchez has room to grow. The Jets’ passing game is a work in progress and Owens would have plenty to groan about if a) he wasn’t getting enough touches and b) Sanchez started to struggle.

      The fastest way to stunt a quarterback’s development is to play him before he’s ready. The second fastest is having Terrell Owens on the roster.

      Kudos to Mike Tannenbaum for considering all of his options (the Jets were the same team that showed a small interest in JaMarcus Russell before he was busted sippin’ the syruuuup), but in the end there just isn’t enough room for T.O. in the Big Apple.

      External Sports, NFL

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