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2010 NFL Question Marks: Buffalo Bills

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 18: Trent Edwards #5 of the Buffalo Bills calls out orders against the New York Jets during the game on October 18, 2009 at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Bills defeated the Jets 16-13 in overtime. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Merry training camp season, everyone. It’s been a long offseason, but football is finally gearing up again and to celebrate I’m rolling out a new series on TSR entitled “2010 NFL Question Marks,” where I discuss one or two of the biggest concerns that teams have heading into the new season. Granted, some teams have more issues than others, but I’ll primarily be focusing on the biggest problem areas. Today I’ll be discussing the Bills, who, as you may imagine, have a couple of issues on their plate.

Ugh. I think I had the Bills in mind when I first thought about doing this series, as there’s no limit to the number of issues going on right now in Buffalo.

Actually, that’s not fair because the Bills are moving in the right direction and the hiring of GM Buddy Nix is proof of that. Nix has 14 years of NFL experience and previously spent 26 years coaching in the college ranks. The guy knows how to scout and for a team that desperately needs to re-stock their roster with talent, that’s huge.

Whether or not Chan Gailey was the best choice for head coach is debatable, but at least a) he has experience and b) isn’t Dick Jauron. For the time being, let’s give Gailey a chance and take solace in the fact that the Bills actually have people in their front office who don’t base their decisions on simulations in “Madden.” (“Madden says that the Cowboys would be willing to take Marshawn Lynch, a fourth, and a seventh for Tony Romo, so get Jerry Jones on the phone and let’s see if we can wrap something up by lunchtime.”)

That said, things still look bleak for this team, especially compared to the rest of the AFC East. Defensively, the secondary is deep and the team devoted a lot of time this offseason re-tooling the line for new coordinator George Edwards, who will implement the 3-4. It’s going to take time for the new scheme to take shape, which is why I’ll leave the defense alone for now.

The offense, however, is another story.

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LeBron’s new role

The Miami Heat have signed free agents LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade to 6 year contracts at the American Airlines Arena in Miami on July 9, 2010. UPI/Michael Bush Photo via Newscom

Much has been written about how LeBron James will fit in an offense alongside Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Many pundits are skeptical about the possibility of it working, but I’m not. The trio may not be perfectly designed to play together, but their skill sets aren’t as incohesive as some are saying.

Tom Haberstroh writes about a yet-developed statistic that would be able to determine LeBron’s impact on the game.

What is WPA? Starting with the beginning of a play, what is the probability of winning the game, given the situation? After the conclusion of that play, recalculate and debit/credit the player for the change in win probability. That’s WPA. This is the essence of sport: each play contributes to a team’s chances of reaching its collective goal of beating the other team.

James would have to pass up the shot that he loved to take in Cleveland because probabilistically it may be the better play with his new Super Friends. But as any coach will attest, player ego often gets in the way of a team’s goals. If James swallows his pride and makes the pass to an open Wade for a game-winning shot, it wont signal that Wade is The Man, even if that’s what the media would decide. In reality, it means James has fully recognized his role as the facilitator of victory, whether that’s taking the big shots or creating better ones for his teammates.

All three Super Friends are willing passers, so sharing the ball shouldn’t be a problem. I don’t think LeBron is heading to Miami thinking he’s going to be taking most of the shots up against the shot clock. That will largely be Wade’s job. LeBron will likely handle the ball a lot on the break and early in the shot clock, when he can use his considerable ball handling and passing skills to create open shots for his teammates.

Since he has thus far been unwilling to develop a post game or much of a midrange jumper, LeBron will generally do one of two things when he gets the ball: 1) attack the basket for a layup, or 2) attack the basket and create a shot for a teammate.

If the trio has one weakness, it’s consistent shooting from outside (though Bosh is pretty steady). That’s why the Heat signed Mike Miller, Eddie House and James Jones, who are all 39%+ shooters from long range.

Astros trade Roy Oswalt to Phillies for J.A. Happ, two prospects

July 18, 2010 - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America - 18 July 2010: Houston Astros starting pitcher Roy Oswalt (44) delivers a pitch to the plate during the National League game between the Houston Astros and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates Paul Maholm.

According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, the Astros have traded starter Roy Oswalt to the Phillies for J.A. Happ, and prospects Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar. Oswalt had to waive his no-trade clause in order for the deal to go through, which he obviously did. (Or else, you know, there wouldn’t be a story.)

Here are some details for the y.o.u.:

The Astros also agreed to pay $11 million of the more than $23 remaining on Oswalt’s contract, which runs through 2011, so the Phillies will owe him about $12 million for a season plus two months. They also can exercise their end of a mutual option in an effort to keep Oswalt for 2012.

Some teams were reluctant to pursue Oswalt, who turns 33 on Aug. 29, in this trade market due to injury concerns. He has been on the disabled list three times since ‘06 with back or hip issues, including each of the past two seasons.

As Rosenthal points out, exactly one year ago, the Phillies traded for Cliff Lee and they went on to appear in their second World Series in two years. Will they strike magic two years in a row? Tough to say. They were six games above the Marlins in the NL East at this date last year and now they’re chasing the Braves by three.

That said, a three-game deficit is nothing with a starting rotation that features Oswalt, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. The key is whether or not the offense will come around, which it looks like it may.

Oswalt is having his worst career as a pro record-wise at 6-12, but he’s pitched better than the numbers suggest. He should be re-energized by re-joining the pennant race and should be a welcome addition to the Phillies’ rotation. It’s time for him to step up now, though.

New owner outlines direction for Warriors

Jan. 03, 2010: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry during an NBA game between the Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX Dallas defeated Golden State 110-101.

Joe Lacob held a couple of media events and answered some questions about his new team, the Golden State Warriors. Tim Kawakami has the details:

Lacob made it very clear he liked the David Lee-for-Anthony Randolph and others deal, plus the $80M contract for Lee.

On the TV side, Matt Steinmetz asked my No. 1 question and Lacob answered: No, he does not expect to bring the Warriors over the luxury-tax line for salaries.

Speaking of signals, Lacob made it all too obvious that he questions whether Don Nelson should coach the team this season, pointing out that Nelson is here for one more, tops.

Why waste that year with Nelson as a lame duck? The players will know–and could run wild. The fans know it. The management know sit. Nelson knows it.

Lacob sounded a lot more excited about Lee and Stephen Curry than he did about Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins.

Nothing wrong with that. I wouldn’t presume that these guys will definitely be traded. But it’s also something everybody in the league will be watching.

The Warriors could build around a Curry/Lee combo. I’m not sure how Monta Ellis will fit in alongside Curry now that Curry has established that the Warriors are his team. They make an undersized backcourt, for sure.

Curry, 22, had an oustanding rookie season, especially after the All-Star break when he averaged 22-6-8 and shot 47% from the field, 44% from 3PT and 91% from the free throw line. He did turn the ball over quite a bit (3.7 per game), but that should improve with time.

On the season, Curry averaged 17.5 points, 5.9 assists and 4.5 rebounds, becoming only the second rookie in league history to average at least 17-4-4 with 40%+ accuracy from long range. The other guy to do it? Larry Bird.

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