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UFC 119 takes place tonight from the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The card doesn’t have a major fight that will have an impact on the landscape of the organization but each of the five main card bouts should be competitive and entertaining contests. Here are my picks for the show.
UFC Heavyweight Bout – Frank Mir (13-5) vs. Mirko Cro Cop (27-7-2) – Cro Cop took this fight on somewhat short notice as this was originally supposed to be a rematch of Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. On top of that, Cro Cop is not 100 percent coming into the fight as he is dealing with an eye injury. Cro Cop is a step slower than he was in his prime while Mir has improved his striking while still being one of the best submission fighters in all of MMA. I see Mir landing a big punch in the second round before jumping on Cro Cop and finishing with a choke.
UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Antonio Rogerio Nogueria (19-3) vs. Ryan Bader (12-0) – This fight is a big contest for both as each needs the win to really get into the title picture in this division. The key to the bout will be Bader’s wrestling, as his explosiveness should win out against Nogueira. If Bader can avoid the big hit and close the distance in the fight, he should be able to win a decision by grinding out the fight on top with ground and pound.
UFC Welterweight Bout – Matt Serra (17-6) vs. Chris Lytle (29-17-4) – I see this fight going similarly to the first. Lytle is an entertaining and experienced fighter, but he never has been able to get that marquee win in his career. Serra really just has the win over Georges St. Pierre to go bye, but he has always been a tough guy to beat as well. In this fight I see Serra controlling the fight with his grappling. The only way I don’t see him winning by decision is if he gets too confident in his striking.
UFC Lightweight Bout – Sean Sherk (37-4-1) vs. Evan Dunham (11-0) – Sherk used to dominate the division with his strength and wrestling, but recently his opponents have been able to avoid his takedowns with their strength and they have been faster with their striking, which has caused Sherk to lose two of his last three bouts. Dunham has that same style to beat Sherk. Sherk will struggle to get the fight to the ground and Dunham will be a little quicker to the punch. I like Dunham to win this fight by decision.
UFC Lightweight Bout – Melvin Guillard (43-9-3) vs. Jeremy Stephens (18-5) – This fight should be explosive as both have big power and like to swing with everything they have in each punch. The key in this bout will be Guillard’s inability to fight off his back as Stephens trains with Hermes Franca and has some grappling skills that many haven’t seen yet. I see Stephens getting takedowns late to set up for some ground and pound and a TKO finish in the third.
The Big Ten is in the middle of a brutal stretch of games today. Of the 10 conference teams in action, eight of them play MAC schools. The other two play FCS opponents.
Well done, Big Ten.
It’s weekends like this that are embarrassing, and spit in the face of the anti-playoff “every week matters” argument. These weekends are even more embarrassing when a team loses (looking at you, Purdue). From some of the noise on Twitter this morning, it’s a money issue, and the conference needs these games to offset Title IX losses.
Really? Sounds like a pathetic excuse to schedule a bunch of cupcakes, to me.
To be fair to the conference, it’s not the only one that schedules like this, and some of its teams schedule some difficult games early in the season. This weekend is just so glaringly awful that it has to be pointed out. But as long as the BCS is around, nothing is going to change, and we can be sure to see more weekends like this throughout the country.
Perhaps the only thing worse for Jake Locker than his atrocious performance against Nebraska last week, is the fact that he has an off week to think about said performance and so does everyone else.
Locker was many expert’s favorite to be the top pick, or at least the top quarterback, in the 2011 NFL Draft because of his arm strength and mobility. The 4-for-20 stinker against Nebraska changed a lot of those minds, however, including Locker’s stalker biggest fan, ESPN’s Todd McShay.
So who steps up in his place? We may find out today. The other top QB prospects this year — Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett and Stanford’s Andrew Luck — each have a big chance to showcase their talents this afternoon on a big stage.
Mallett gets a chance to prove he can do what Locker couldn’t a week ago: Have a big game against an elite defense. The Razorbacks play host to top-ranked Alabama, and while it’s a relatively inexperienced secondary that he’ll be facing, carving up a Nick Saban-coached defense can do wonders for one’s draft stock. A win could vault Mallett to the top of draft boards, but he could also get there in a loss. Arkansas’ defense has never been looked at as a strength, so if Mallett has a strong game in a shootout, he should still get a lot of credit.
Luck isn’t facing a defense near as good as the one Mallett will see today, but he is playing on a big stage. Stanford heads to Notre Dame, which — like it or not — is going to get him a lot of attention. The Irish secondary is nowhere near elite, but if Luck puts up huge numbers, he wouldn’t be the first quarterback to be elevated for it (see: Russell, Jamarcus).
Stanford and Luck should have more success today, but it’s probably Mallett who has more to gain. Either way, all Locker can do is sit and watch.
By the end of the day today, we could have a whole new look at the national title picture. Then again, you could say that any week in college football.
This time, however, there’s actually a chance that things could get jumbled up. The top team in the country, Alabama, is facing by far its stiffest test of the season as it travels to Fayetteville to take on Ryan Mallett and Arkansas. No. 3 Boise State will play in its second — and probably last — “showcase” game of the year when it plays host to Oregon State.
We know that if Boise State loses, a lot of the debate about who deserves what will go away, at least until we have to sort through a handful of one-loss teams at the end of the season (but we’ll save that for later). If the Tide lose and the Broncos win, is Boise all of the sudden in the driver’s seat for a spot in the title game? Probably not, actually.
It’s a big slate today, so find a spot on the couch by the mid-afternoon games and settle in for some good football. Continue reading »
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