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      My interview with FantasyPros

      January 5, 2011 /

      Late last week, FantasyPros announced that I was 2010’s Most Accurate Expert, and as a part of the competition’s post-mortem, I was asked to answer a few questions for the site’s founder, Dave Kim.

      Q: Can you tell us a little about your site, The Scores Report, and how you got started in the fantasy business?

      John: The Scores Report is a national sports blog. We cover all the major sports, but my focus is on fantasy football during the NFL season, and then my focus turns to the NBA and college basketball once the season is over. I started writing for Bullz-Eye in 2005 and shortly thereafter began covering fantasy football on BE and then on The Scores Report.

      Q: Can you briefly describe your process for coming up with your player projections/rankings?

      John: I have an engineering background, so statistics play a big role in my rankings. I calculate strength of schedule each week, and use matchups to put my rankings together. I don’t do player-specific projections, at least not yet, so my rankings probably have more “feel” than some of the more math-driven rankings that are out there. This allows me to create rankings that reflect my own opinion on each player, including the level of trust that each player has earned. In other words, if a player is a risky start but has considerable upside, I generally won’t rank them ahead of a solid start with little upside. If I have one player ranked ahead of another, it almost always means that I would personally start them in that order as well. I wouldn’t want to advise my readers to start someone that I wouldn’t start myself under the same circumstances.

      Continue reading »

      External Sports, Fantasy Football, NFL

      What’s gone wrong for Vick and the Eagles?

      January 5, 2011 /
      Philadelphia Eagles Michael Vick throws a pass in the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at New Meadowlands Stadium in week 15 of the NFL in East Rutherford, New Jersey on December 19, 2010. The Eagles defeated the Giants 38-31. UPI /John Angelillo

      Three weeks ago the football world was buzzing about the electrifying Eagles, who are led by their electrifying quarterback, who pumps more electricity into a stadium than an electric generator.

      But lately the high-flying Eagles have been grounded. After scoring 28 points in 7:28 to shock the Giants in Week 15, they’ve managed just 27 points in the past eight quarters against doormats like the Vikings and Cowboys.

      Suddenly, Andy Reid’s squad looks rather vulnerable.

      What happened? For starters, Michael Vick traded in his Superman cape for one of Batman’s yellow Speedos. (What?) After not throwing an interception in over 200 attempts, he’s thrown at least one pick in his last five starts and six in total. Granted, the Eagles still went 3-2 over that span and he has thrown 10 touchdowns to go along with those six picks, but he clearly isn’t the same invincible player he was earlier this season.

      And really, that was to be expected. Nobody outside of Tom Brady could sustain the numbers that Vick was putting up earlier in the year. The law of averages were bound to catch up with him, which they eventually did. The bigger problem is that he’s taking too many hits and he’s failing to diagnose where opponents are blitzing.

      Continue reading »

      External Sports, NFL

      Carson Palmer to return?

      January 5, 2011 /
      Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer (9) gets off a pass as Baltimore Ravens linebacker Jarret Johnson (95) is blocked by Bengals offensive tackle Anthony Collins during the second quarter of their NFL football game in Baltimore, Maryland January 2, 2011. REUTERS/Joe Giza (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      Marvin Lewis seems to confirm Palmer’s return in an interview with the Cincinnati Enquirer.

      Will Carson Palmer be back? Barring a major change in heart, which looks unlikely to happen, one of Lewis’ major priorities will be finding complementary parts for Palmer.

      “It’s important to recapture the spirit of our football team,” Lewis said. “I told him (Palmer) yesterday privately that it’s important to me that I will help him be the player that I know he is and I believe in him and he’s important to me.”

      This is good news for a few of my early sleepers heading into the 2011 season: WRs Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, Jordan Shipley and TE Jermaine Gresham, who is just the 7th tight end in league history to catch 50+ passes in his rookie season. Palmer played pretty well with this group over the final two games, throwing for 574 yards and five TDs against two pretty good defenses (San Diego and Baltimore). It appears that he may be better off if he doesn’t have his wideouts chirping in his ear.

      I’m not sure how much longer Simpson will be a sleeper after the third-year wideout caught 18 passes for 247 yards and three TDs over his final two games of the season. If both Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens are gone next season, Simpson is a good bet to finish as a top 15 or 20 fantasy WR. Caldwell and Shipley are going to hold more value in PPR leagues, and they could cancel each other out if the Bengals go to a more run-oriented attack.

      External Sports, Fantasy Football, NFL

      Seahawks prove that there’s a need for the NFL to re-seed

      January 5, 2011 /
      Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll looks up at the game clock in the fourth quarter of their game against the New York Giants on Sunday November 7, 2010 at Qwest Field in Seattle. The Giants beat the Seahawks 41-8. (UPI /Jim Bryant)

      Throughout the NFL season, I’ve participated in the Washington Post’s NFL panel, “The League.” This week, I was asked for my take on the Seahawks and whether or not they’re the worst team in NFL history to make the playoffs.

      Are the 2010-11 version of the Seattle Seahawks the worst playoff team in NFL history? Yes, considering they’re the only team to make the playoffs with a losing record. But that’s not the NFL’s biggest problem when it comes to its current playoff structure.

      The Seahawks won’t be the only host team with a worse record than their opponent this weekend. Look at the schedule: The 10-6 Colts are hosting the 11-5 Jets, the 10-6 Chiefs are hosting the 12-4 Ravens and yes, the 7-9 Seahawks are hosting the 11-5 Saints.

      I have no problem with the four division winners making the playoffs. “>Do I think it’s elephant dung that the 10-win Giants and Bucs didn’t make the playoffs and the 7-9 Seahawks did? Absolutely. This is the first time since 1991 that a pair of 10-6 teams will miss the playoffs, all while a 7-9 team gets in. That’s not fair but sorry, that’s just the luck of the draw.

      But for the love of football man, can we get Roger Goodell to re-seed the playoffs after the regular season?

      Seattle has proved that just because a team wins its lousy division doesn’t mean it earned the right to host a playoff game. The NFL wants to reward the four teams that win their division, which is fine – I’m on board with that. But it’s ridiculous that a team like the Ravens (a legit Super Bowl contender) will be on the road this weekend when the Seahawks play at home.

      Read the full article.

      External Sports, NFL

      Fantasy Points Per Touch: RBs

      January 5, 2011 /
      New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs fends off Washington Redskins line backer Brian Orakpo to pick up get back to the line of scrimmage in the first quarter at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland on January 2, 2010. UPI/Roger L. Wollenberg

      After each fantasy football season, I like to do something of a post-mortem by looking at certain stats that might give me a clearer picture of what in the hell just happened. One such stat is fantasy points per touch, which takes the total (non-PPR) fantasy points divided by the sum of the player’s carries and catches.

      Here’s a look at the top 20 RBs (with at least 150 total touches) ranked by fantasy points per touch.

      When trying to predict a player’s outlook, I always go back to the old fantasy addage, “Talent + Opportunity = Success.” This stat gives us an idea of a player’s talent by answering the question — how productive was this player with the touches he received? If a back is listed here, it indicates that he may very well have the talent to be a top 20 fantasy RB in the NFL if he were to receive the appropriate amount of touches.

      A few takeaways:

      – Brandon Jacobs can run the ball. His numbers here are a little skewed due to the nine TDs he scored in 147 carries, but he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and should be the feature back somewhere even if Ahmad Bradshaw is the better all around back. 2010 marks the third season in the last four that Jacobs averaged 5.0-plus yards per carry, so his poor 2009 numbers (3.6 ypc) look to be more of an aberration than a trend.

      – Jamaal Charles is really, really good. If not for the presence of Thomas Jones, he would be a top 2 or 3 RB heading into the 2011 season. As it stands, I suspect he’ll be a mid-first round pick.

      – Ryan Mathews has what it takes to be a very good RB2, but he needs to stay healthy and he needs RB2 touches. His teammate, Mike Tolbert, vultured his touchdowns and will do so again if he’s still a Charger next season.

      – BenJarvus Green-Ellis figures to be a sleeper heading into the 2011 season. He’s a touchdown machine and a good runner (4.4 ypc), but Belichick’s fickleness at the RB position will likely depress the Law Firm’s value a bit. He should be a very solid RB2 next season.

      – Peyton Hillis outperformed Chris Johnson, Frank Gore and Michael Turner on a per touch basis. Hillis should be the Browns’ feature back heading into 2011, and should continue to be productive even if Cleveland moves to a West Coast offense since he has the pass-catching skills to be effective out of the backfield.

      – Michael Bush could be a star with a new team. He’s a free agent this summer, so if the Raiders don’t resign him (though they should), he could turn into a fantasy RB2 if he lands with the right team.

      – Maybe Tim Hightower should be the Cardinals’ feature back. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry and has good hands out of the backfield. People complain about his breakaway speed, but he had an 80-yard run this season. In 292 career carries, Beanie Wells has a career long run of 33 yards.

      External Sports, Fantasy Football, NFL

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