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Fantasy Points Per Target: WRs

Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Wallace pulls in a pass and runs away from Carolina Panthers Nic Harris for 43 yards and a touchdown in the second quarter at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on December 23, 2010. UPI/Archie Carpenter

A few days ago, I calculated the fantasy points per touch for the running back position, and today I’m looking at fantasy points per target for wide receivers. It’s important to note that not all targets are the same. A wideout will register a target if a QB throws the ball in his direction, so it really doesn’t matter if the ball goes off the receiver’s hands or if it sails 10 feet over his head. Generally speaking, the better the QB, the better the quality of targets his receivers will see, so all else being equal, fantasy owners should usually take the WR with the better QB. (But we knew that already, right?)

A few takeaways:

– These numbers don’t include a point per reception, so they’ll skew more towards the big play, TD-heavy wideouts. I also limited the scope of the table to those receivers who saw at least 80 targets. Of the players who were targeted 30-79 times, a few names stand out: Kenny Britt (1.80 FP per target), Austin Collie (1.57), Ben Obomanu (1.50), Malcom Floyd (1.40) and Dez Bryant (1.26) would have likely finished in the Top 20 in FP/T had they stayed healthy. Jerome Simpson (1.90) was only targeted 24 times, but obviously did a lot (20-277-3) with those looks.

– Mike Wallace is explosive. If he gets his targets into the 120+ range, he’d have a great shot at becoming fantasy’s top WR. Wallace saw 4.8 targets through the first four games (with Ben Roethlisberger suspended) and 6.6 targets over the final 12 games, with Big Ben under center, so his final 2010 numbers may be a little depressed.

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NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview: How the Seahawks can beat the Saints

A New Orleans Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees is seen in the slide line as the Saints play the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Banks Stadium in Baltimore on December 19, 2010. UPI/Kevin Dietsch

I hate standard game previews. Do we really need to know that Team A needs to run the ball to beat Team B? Thanks for the thrilling commentary, captain obvious.

That said, I do love me a good X’s and O’s piece, so below I’ve broken down how the Seahawks can beat the Saints (and vice versa) in the teams’ Wildcard matchup this weekend. Feel free to let me have it in the comments section if I write something along the lines of, “If they run the ball effectively.” There’s no need for me to repeat something Mark Schlereth is going to tell us on “NFL Countdown” leading up the game.

SAINTS WIN IF: They show up? Seriously though…Pete Carroll announced on Thursday that Matt Hasselbeck will start for the Seahawks this weekend. If that’s the case, New Orleans’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams may actually want to dial down his pressure. Charlie Whitehurst has been a career backup and has zero playoff experience, so it makes sense to force him to make snap decisions by sending pressure. But although he’s struggled mightily over the past couple of weeks, Hasselbeck is a playoff veteran who knows he has to get the ball out of his hands quickly when faced with a heavy rush and he usually can find his hot routes. When the Hawks played the Saints in Week 11, Hasselbeck went 6 for 6 for 128 yards with a touchdown and a perfect passer rating of 158.3 when New Orleans sent six or more pass rushers. Williams has always been known for being an aggressive playcaller and there’s no reason to change that approach now. But there’s obviously a difference between being aggressive and being overly aggressive. The Seahawks’ running game has been inconsistent so if the Saints can get them in obvious passing downs, they may have more success sitting back in coverage and making Hasselbeck throw into tight windows. We know the Saints’ offense can score but that doesn’t mean they need to get into a shootout. If Seattle strikes for a couple of big plays early in the game because Williams is too aggressive, the Seahawks may start believing they can win.

SEAHAWKS WIN IF: There’s no doubt the Hawks are up against it. They’re outmatched in almost all phases of the game and nobody would be surprised if Drew Brees marched the Saints up and down the field on them. That said, the Seahawks still need to be aggressive. I don’t want to say they don’t have anything to lose because that’s garbage; they have a playoff game to lose, which is pretty significant. But at 7-9 they are playing with house money so there’s no reason to be conservative. Hasselbeck (366 yards, 1 TD, 104.9 QB Rating) will have to play just as well as he did in the first meeting between these two teams for the Seahawks to have a shot. The defense also needs to be aggressive, especially if, as expected, the Saints can’t run the ball. If Brees is going to beat you, make him beat you while throwing under duress. He may throw for 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns, but he also threw 22 interceptions this year so obviously he’s prone to turning the ball over. One or two turnovers can make all the difference in the final score. (Just look at the Bucs’ win over the Saints in Week 17.)

Did the uncertainty of the NFL’s labor situation scare Andrew Luck into staying at Stanford?

Stanford Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck (12) passes for 287 yards against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the 77th Annual Discover Orange Bowl at Sun Life stadium in Miami on January 3, 2011. Stanford defeated Virginia Tech 40-12. UPI/Martin Fried

There will be plenty of people in the next couple of days that will say Andrew Luck is crazy for staying at Stanford. He’s basically just handed over a treasure chest filled with $50 million so he could play in the Pac-10 again next year.

What are you thinking, kid? Your stock will never be higher! The iron has never been hotter! Carpe poon!

But maybe the young man is worried about there not being a season next year. And considering Roger Goodell has been all talk and no action when it comes to getting the owners and the NFLPA to come together on a new labor deal, I don’t blame Luck if he is concerned about entering the draft.

Will a deal probably get done eventually? Yes. Could Luck get hurt next season and wind up losing out on millions? Yes. Would I have left school if I were him and covered my self in chocolate sauce at the thought of receiving $50 million? Yes…what?

But again, if Luck was concerned about the NFL’s labor situation, I can’t blame him. Why not take the guarantee rather than the possibility of there not being a season next year? (Of course, to that I ask: Why not just wait and take the guaranteed $50 million when they do reach an agreement, numb nuts?)

On a related note: how screwed are the Carolina Panthers now? They were all set to take Luck with the No. 1 pick next April and now will have to go in another direction unless they think Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett (assuming he comes out) is worth that much guaranteed money. Some believe he’s a top 5 pick and while he certainly has the size and tools, it would be a stretch to say he’s worth the top overall selection.

It’s not good to be a Panther fan these days.

Rick Reilly’s lame jokes undercut his argument

Rick Reilly wrote a piece about how TCU’s win over Wisconsin proves, yet again, that college football needs a playoff. I agree with just about everything he says, but then he writes this:

What a lie this BCS era is. They say a playoff would take too much time away from school, yet Oregon’s players will have had 37 days off when they play again.

They say with this system, “every game counts.” Except of course, TCU’s epic win over Wisconsin to stay undefeated Saturday. Counts exactly as much as a rainbow to Stevie Wonder.

Here’s what was going through my mind as I read that section…

What a lie this BCS era is. Yep. They say a playoff would take too much time away from school, yet Oregon’s players will have had 37 days off when they play again. Yep. They say with this system, “every game counts.” Except of course, TCU’s epic win over Wisconsin to stay undefeated Saturday. Not epic, but yep. Counts exactly as much as a rainbow to Stevie Wonder. Wait, whaa? Leave Stevie out of it!

Seriously, dude is blind. He’s had enough to deal with in his life without a sportswriter (who has won National Sportswriter of the Year 11 times — sigh) invoking his handicap to make a lame joke so that his column will seem like it’s funny.

This is why I don’t generally read Rick Reilly. I read this piece because I’m in favor of a college football playoff and I wanted to see if he had anything new and/or interesting to add.

Nope.

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