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Here’s some fade material for your NFL weekend…
Saints @ Seahawks, 4:30PM ET, Saturday
I don’t have the stones to predict an outright win for the Seahawks and even if I did, I wouldn’t want to be accused of going against the grain just for the sake of going against the grain. Plus, I don’t think Seattle has enough weapons to slow down Sean Payton’s offense for four quarters. That said, I love the 10.5 points here. When I first saw the spread for this matchup, I racked my brain trying to figure out if I had ever seen a road team lay that many points in a playoff game before. I couldn’t think of one because there hasn’t been. The Seahawks are the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Look, this isn’t college football. It’s hard enough for a home team to cover as a double-digit favorite in the NFL, let alone a road team to cover such a large spread. And considering the Saints won’t be able to run the ball, the Seahawks should be able to keep this game somewhat close. Seattle is still one of the toughest environments to play in – I don’t care how poorly the Seahawks are performing. This one will be much, much closer than most people think.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +10.5
Jets @ Colts, 8:00PM ET, Saturday
By now, everyone is aware of the hold Peyton Manning has on Rex Ryan. He’s 5-1 against Ryan-led defenses and has thrown for 1,513 yards and 12 touchdown passes to only two interceptions. That said, I think the Jets will control the tempo of this game from the start and leave Manning on the sidelines. The best way to beat Peyton is to limit his opportunities to beat you. You’re never going to be able to completely shut him down (even in his four-interception game against the Chargers he still tossed two touchdown passes), but allowing him to speed up the tempo of the game is forbidden. He wants to have the ball in his hands so that he can attack your defense. Therefore, the Jets have to run the ball with success and grind the tempo of this game to a screeching halt. I expect this game to be boring and if it is, the Jets win outright.
THE PICK: JETS +2.5
As I did with the Saints-Seahawks preview, below I break down how the Jets can beat the Colts on Saturday and vice versa.
THE JETS WIN IF: Obviously Mark Sanchez needs to be productive for the Jets to have a shot, but I’m going to focus on Rex Ryan’s defense. If Ryan finally wants to get the Peyton Manning monkey off his back, he could learn a lot from watching how the Patriots, Chargers and Cowboys defended the Colts in Indy’s three-game losing streak in Weeks 11-13. In those three games, the Colts averaged just 2.6 yards per rush. Granted, they didn’t have Joseph Addai then, but the key to defusing Manning might start with taking away his running game. Obviously the Jets need to get pressure on Manning. All teams facing quarterbacks like Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers need to dial up pressure to beat those guys. But despite the popular belief that the Colts can’t run the ball, most of Manning’s success comes from Indy’s balance on offense. The Colts might not rack up a lot of rushing yards, but that doesn’t mean their ground game can’t be effective. The Jets need to focus on shutting down the Colts’ rushing attack first and make them one-dimensional. If Manning is constantly in third-and-long situations, then eventually the Jets will come up with a big play (just as the Patriots, Chargers and Cowboys did). Disguising blitzes and sending pressure from the secondary is all well and good, but those things won’t matter if the Colts can move the ball on the ground. Peyton is going to make plays – that’s just what he does. But it’s those times when the Jets force him to throw in third-and-long when they need to capitalize.
THE COLTS WIN IF: Peyton continues his domination of Ryan-led defenses. Over the past month of the season, quarterbacks such as Tom Brady and Jay Cutler were able to strike for big plays because Ryan constantly had to send extra defenders to help his feeble pass rush. If Manning can strike for a couple of long-gainers and put the Jets back on their heels, then it will force Mark Sanchez to beat the Colts with his arm. Another thing Indy must do is control the tempo. If the Jets are able to play their game (i.e. running the ball and playing good defense), then Manning may get frustrated that he can’t attack, attack, attack like he’s used to doing. Nothing infuriates him more than having to stand on the sidelines and watch the time tick off the clock. But if the Colts can establish rhythm early, get into the fast tempo they want to play and make Sanchez and the Jets’ offense scramble to catch up, then Indy wins this one running away.
Former Clippers GM Elgin Baylor is suing the franchise for wrongful termination, and with owner Donald Sterling’s reputation, is anyone really surprised?
Anyway, in documents obtained by ESPN’s TrueHoop, there was this startling paragraph:
“While ignoring my suggestions and isolating me from decisions customarily reserved for general managers, the Clippers attempted to place the blame for the team’s failures on me,” Baylor said in the declaration. “During this same period, players Sam Cassell, Elton Brand and Corey Maggette complained to me that DONALD STERLING would bring women into the locker room after games, while the players were showering, and make comments such as, ‘Look at those beautiful black bodies.’ I brought this to Sterling’s attention, but he continued to bring women into the locker room.”
Whaa?
In the past 24 hours it seems like Jim Harbaugh went from being the hottest name in sports, to being as attractive as one of Kristen Wiig’s deformed characters on “Saturday Night Live.”
It’s hard to know where the Harbaugh rumors start and where they end, but all of a sudden two teams (the Dolphins and Broncos) that were pursuing him as their next head coach suddenly have no interest at all. On Thursday night, Jay Glazer of FOX Sports tweeted that the Dolphins were sticking with Tony Sparano (the man that owner Stephen Ross was so willing to kick to the curb just days ago) and on Friday morning, the Denver Post reported that the Broncos are bowing out of the Harbaugh race, too.
Whose baby did Harbaugh punch in the last 24 hours to make these teams turn and run for the hills?
The fact that the Broncos have backed out isn’t a surprise. As Rotoworld.com points out, they’ve just been a “backburner” team for Harbaugh all along. But the Dolphins’ about-face is strange to say the least.
Ross, GM Jeff Ireland and new football czar Carl Peterson flew cross-country to talk to Harbaugh earlier this week. There were also reports that Ross offered Harbaugh $7-8 million to coach in Miami, which would have made him the highest paid head coach in the NFL. During this time, Miami’s brass left Sparano hanging (which was a bush league move by the way) while courting Harbaugh.
And now they’re out? Hey Tony, we realized that you were the one for us all along? No, it’s over with Jim…we swear?
It doesn’t make sense.
So now we’re back to square one with Harbaugh: It’s between Michigan (his alma mater) and the 49ers (assuming they haven’t backed out since I started writing this post). And I guess we might as well entertain the idea that he’s going to stay at Stanford with Andrew Luck and I don’t know, win another Orange Bowl or something.
My money would be on him winding up at Michigan but at this point, who knows.
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