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Strength of Schedule: Playoffs, Week 2

January 11, 2011 / John Paulsen

For those of us playing fantasy football (in one form or another) during the NFL playoffs, I thought it would be worthwhile to calculate end-of-year strength of schedule. I won’t be updating the SOS data throughout the playoffs, but I should be able to post a table each week with updated matchups.

What am I looking at?

Below you’ll see a table with a list of team names on the left and a list of positions (including PPR data) along the top. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup.

It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.

For those of us who are going to play fantasy football through the playoffs, I thought it would be worthwhile to calculate strength of schedule for the first week of the playoffs. I’m not going to be updating SOS throughout the playoffs, but I should be able to post an updated table each week with SOS data updated through W17.

How do I use SOS?

Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Benson. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Benson has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Benson has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.

Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you have a bona fide RB1 with a good matchup waiting in the wings.

The Bears look like solid starts this week all the way around, especially since the Seattle defense doesn’t fare nearly as well away from home…The Jets also have good matchups, though be warned that the Patriots defense has played a lot better of late…Tony Gonzalez looks like a good start at TE.

External Sports, Fantasy Football, NFL

How was this bowl season better than a playoff?

January 11, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Bill Hancock seems like a nice enough guy but he’s delusional if he thinks that this past bowl season was a rousing success and that it proved that there’s no need for a playoff.

First and foremost, that title game was terrible. It may have had an exciting finish but a great game it was not.

Two of the most explosive offenses in the nation were on display Monday night and yet, you couldn’t have asked for worse field conditions. This should have been the most entertaining game of the season but from the opening kickoff, players resembled hockey players sliding on a sheet of ice. Neither team could catch their footing, which is probably why the combined score totaled only 41 points (or 31 fewer points than what Vegas installed for the over/under). How does this happen in an indoor stadium when the grass can easily be maintained?

Granted, it’s not the BCS’ fault that the game was rather lousy on a whole. Even if there were a playoff, there would be no guarantee that all the games would be exciting. But at the very least, the teams would be playing for something every week.

The matchup between Auburn and Oregon was dead on, but the BCS largely struck out with its other games. They made Stanford fly cross-country just to crush an overmatched Virginia Tech team and there’s no reason to relive the Oklahoma-UConn debacle.

The Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl were both highly entertaining – I’ll give the BCS that. But why must there be a long delay between the BCS bowl games and the championship? And for the love of college football, why were the Go Daddy.com Bowl, the Cotton Bowl, the BBVA Compass Bowl and the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl shown as a lead up to the national title game? I felt bad for the kids who played in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl because nobody cared by that point. They made those poor kids play on Sunday night following four NFL playoff games – only action junkies tuned into that one.

College Football, External Sports

2011 BCS National Championship BCS Mess BCS sucks College football needs a playoff college football playoff

Nuggets to Nets: Shut up or we’ll trade Melo to the Knicks

January 11, 2011 / John Paulsen

Per Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports…

Before resuming trade talks for Carmelo Anthony on Monday, the Denver Nuggets delivered a stern warning to the New Jersey Nets: Unless the public nature of these trade discussions becomes private, be warned that we will send Anthony to the New York Knicks.
Nothing else the Nuggets could’ve said would send such chills of unease through the Nets, and that’s why Denver made the threat, league sources told Yahoo! Sports.
Would the Nuggets do such a thing out of spite? Would they take a lesser package out of vengeance? No one could be sure, but it sure delivered one more element of drama and intrigue to these trade talks.

This is an interesting turn of events. Apparently, the Nuggets don’t like feeling the pressure to get this deal done and are intent on taking their sweet time getting the best deal they can. However, to threaten to take a lesser deal (from the Knicks) out of spite is pretty childish, and a slap in the face of the Nugget fan base, which is already having to watch its team crumble before its very eyes.

I don’t like these long, drawn-out trade negotiations, but the Nuggets have to do what the Nuggets have to do, and let’s not forget that Denver’s new GM, Masai Ujiri, isn’t a salty vet. This is likely the biggest move of his career, so he’s going to be careful.

Another interesting note from the Yahoo piece:

The Knicks remain Anthony’s preferred destination, but Ujiri has told Knicks president Donnie Walsh that his team doesn’t have the assets Denver wants. When Walsh has asked Ujiri to provide him with a list of the Nuggets’ desires, whether it be draft picks or specific players from other teams, sources said Ujiri has been unresponsive.

You’d think that if Ujiri were really trying to get the best possible deal that he’d give a list of assets he’d like to Walsh and see if the Knicks GM could work his magic.

External Sports, Fantasy Basketball, NBA, News, Rumors & Gossip

2010-11 NBA season Carmelo Anthony Carmelo Anthony rumors Denver Nuggets New Jersey Nets New York Knicks

Rex Ryan once again opens his mouth to take attention away from players

January 11, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

You can’t fault Jets’ coach Rex Ryan for trying to take pressure off his players by providing bulletin board material for the opposing team. (Wait…does that take pressure off his players?)

One week after saying it was “personnel” between him and Peyton Manning, Ryan took a few more shots at Patriots’ QB Tom Brady.

From ESPN.com:

Ryan claimed he didn’t mean to take a shot at Brady last week. Ryan, in talking about how much he respected Peyton Manning, suggested Brady didn’t measure up because he has Belichick “dialing up plays,” while Manning runs the Indianapolis Colts’ offense.
But Ryan expressed his disdain for Brady’s “antics on the field,” which include pointing at the opponents’ sideline after a touchdown.
“That’s just Brady being Brady,” Ryan said. “I don’t like seeing that. No Jets fan likes to see that. He can’t wait to do it. He’s not going to say anything publicly, but he does it. It’s what it is. It’s my job to keep him out of the end zone.”

I’ve always liked Rex Ryan. His defensive game plans are usually outstanding and for the most part, his teams are prepared. He’s also funny and he has a personality, which is refreshing these days in sports.

That said, whatever he says to the media leading up to the game doesn’t matter. At the end of the day, he still has to figure out a way to beat Bill Belichick in Foxboro, which he has yet to do as a head coach. In the same article that I pulled the above quotes from, Ryan admitted that he was outcoached in the 45-3 Monday night bloodbath in early December. And he went on to say that he needs to rise to the same level that Belichick is in order to beat him.

But at least leading up to kickoff, he provides the media something to talk about.

External Sports, NFL

2011 NFL Divisional Round Playoffs 2011 NFL Playoffs Bill Belichick Rex Ryan Tom Brady