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Brace yourself for ‘Bloody Thursday’

According to ESPN’s Len Pasquarelli, we may see a lot of cuts this Thursday, and some of the names will be surprising. This is a result of the league’s failed labor talks that did not result in an extension of the collective bargaining agreement.

Because so many teams are up against the projected cap limit of $95 million to $96 million for 2006, and the lack of a CBA extension means there are few options for relief, some big-name players will be jettisoned by Thursday, when teams must be in compliance with the spending limit.

“In past years, you’d see a lot of guys released who maybe still had some name value but who were really in decline in terms of production,” said one AFC team executive who was working late Tuesday, trying to figure out how to pare down a prohibitively bloated cap figure. “This year? People are going to be stunned — not just by the quantity of players who are cut by Thursday but by the quality, too. It’s going to be ugly. There’s going to be blood in the streets and, compared to past years, it’s going to be from some bluebloods, guys who can still play.”

The negotiations are deadlocked over one issue: revenue sharing. The league and the players association are about four percent apart – the league is offering 56.2% while the NFLPA is looking for 60%, which translates to $300 M to $350 M. Things could get really ugly if the two parties can’t come to a last-minute agreement.

Said one cap manager: “For months, my owner told me to develop two strategies, one with [an extension] and one without. But nobody, even with all the gloom-and-doom talk of the last few weeks, ever really believed we’d be breaking out Plan B. And then, these last few days, even my owner was telling me he thought it would get done. Unless there’s some kind of miracle on Wednesday, our team is going to have to do some drastic things, and I know we’re not the only team in that situation.”

How drastic? There continue to be rumors the Washington Redskins, who extended numerous contracts in the past to deal with previous cap crunches, could have to play with 20 rookies on the roster in 2006. On Tuesday night in Atlanta, there were rumblings the Falcons, who aren’t in nearly the dire straits some other franchises are, might be forced to release tailback Warrick Dunn, who rushed for a career-best 1,416 yards in 2005. The Kansas City Chiefs could part ways with perennial Pro Bowl guard Will Shields if he doesn’t agree to adjust his contract and reduce a $6.67 million cap charge. And that is just the start of the many examples of potential attrition cited by team officials Tuesday evening.

Teams with a lot of cap space could potentially stand to gain by this situation. Check the cap status of your team here.

Culpepper still in Vikings’ plans

I’m not sure why, but the Minnesota Vikings plan to keep Daunte Culpepper around for a while.

Vikings owner Zygi Wilf told reporters Saturday at the NFL scouting combine that the team planned to pay Culpepper a $6 million roster bonus he is scheduled to receive March 17, the Star Tribune and Pioneer Press both reported.

When he was asked if Culpepper figures in the team’s 2006 plans, Wilf said “That is our plan, yes. Always was.”

The best thing that happened to the Vikings last season was Culpepper’s injury. He was dreadful in the first seven games, passing for only six touchdowns against 12 interceptions. What’s worse, the team got off to a 2-5 start under his guidance. It seemed like he really missed the presence of Randy Moss, who left in the team in the offseason. Brad Johnson took Culpepper’s place and led the team to a 7-2 record down the stretch.

I suspect the Vikings are going to regret not moving Culpepper this offseason. He’s not a very accurate passer and would probably do better in Arizona or Oakland where he can just throw the ball up and let talented receivers like Moss and Larry Fitzgerald go up and get it.

Texans might trade top draft pick

It seemed like a lock once the season was done. The Texans gave QB David Carr a three-year contract extension and said they were planning to select USC RB Reggie Bush with the first overall pick. But it appears that they are reconsidering.

Texans general manager Charley Casserly said Sunday the Texans have been talking to teams about possibly trading the first pick in the 2006 draft.

“There’s clearly players at the top of this draft that are marquee players,” Casserly said. “Players that are impact players, players that are going to go to the Pro Bowl, players that are going to sell tickets. We’re going to get offers for this pick. We’ve already had discussions with teams. I think there’s value in our pick.

I think Reggie Bush is a phenomenal talent, but I’m not sure he’s an every down back that you expect to get with the #1 pick. If the Texans want to use him in the same way that the Eagles use Brian Westbrook, he’d be worth the first pick, but they do have a very capable back in Domanick Davis and have a ton of other holes to fill. Trading down might be the smart move.

It’s never too early

The NBA season is just past its halfway mark and there are a number of teams that have stopped thinking about the playoffs and have started thinking about the NBA draft [Insider subscription required]. Overall, this year’s crop of players is considered weak, and there isn’t a clear cut #1 pick.

For now, there seems to be a consensus on the top three, and they’re all underclassmen. Connecticut’s Rudy Gay is a long, athletic small forward who has good range on his jumper. I’ve seen him play a couple of times and, thus far, he seems a bit soft. He floats around the perimeter and doesn’t seem to have much of a midrange game. He also doesn’t seem very intense, which is a problem when you start talking about taking someone with the #1 pick.

Gonzaga’s Adam Morrison is the sentimental favorite for a lot of (white) fans. He has a Larry Bird quality about him and is a fierce competitor. He has a ton of range on his jumpshot and has an excellent midrange game. His only weakness is his athleticism, and it is more apparent on defense. This is only going to get worse at the next level as he’ll be playing small forward in the NBA.

The third player is LaMarcus Aldridge of Texas. He’s going to be a power forward in the NBA and has a good offensive game, both facing the basket and with his back to it. The only knock on him at this point is that he’ll need to add muscle to his frame.

With this much uncertainty over the best player in the draft, it will likely come down to which team wins the lottery. That team will probably draft the player that best fits their needs.

I say “proabably” because there is no telling what the Blazers or the Hawks would do. (Last year, they both passed on Chris Paul to take small forward projects.)

Couch Potato Alert

There’s a surprisingly light slate of games this week in college hoops. The marquee matchup is tonight when #9 Pittsburgh visits #18 West Virginia. Also, Florida State has been coming on lately so they may give #1 Duke a run for their money on Wednesday. In the NBA, the best game this week is the Dallas/San Antonio matchup on Thursday.

College Hoops
Mon, 7pm: (9) Pittsburgh @ (18) West Virginia – ESPN (HD)
Wed, 7pm: (1) Duke @ Florida St. – ESPN (HD)
Wed, 8pm: Kentucky @ (11) Tennessee – ESPN Full Court
Thurs, 7pm: (25) Wisconsin @ (23) Michigan St. – ESPN (HD)
Thurs, 9:30pm: (3) Memphis @ UAB – ESPN2
Thurs, 10:30pm: (13) UCLA @ California – local

NBA
Mon, 7pm: Detroit @ Cleveland – local
Wed, 9pm: Detroit @ Denver – local
Wed, 9pm: Philadelphia @ Houston – ESPN (HD)
Wed, 10:30pm: NO/Oklahoma City @ LA Clippers – local
Thurs, 7pm: Cleveland @ Chicago – TNT (HD)
Thurs, 9:30pm: Dallas @ San Antonio – TNT (HD)

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