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Matt Ryan impressive in debut

August 10, 2008 / Anthony Stalter

Had the chance to watch the Jaguars-Falcons preseason game Saturday night and was very impressed by Atlanta rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. He not only had good numbers (9 for 15, 113 yards, 1 TD), but also looked poised in the pocket and played more like a vet than a rookie. Behind solid performances from starters Maurice Jones-Drew and David Garrard, the Jags beat the Falcons 20-17.

The Falcons have a good dilemma on their hands when it comes to Ryan. He clearly outplayed Chris Redman (the incumbent starter at quarterback), but with the team in rebuilding mode this year, should Ryan start as a rookie?

While reviewing the Falcons’ current talent (especially along the offensive line), the answer should be no, Ryan shouldn’t start in 2008. It’s unwise to start a rookie QB on a bad team, especially one with a suspect offensive line. The Falcons don’t have to look any further than who is on their current roster and backup Joey Harrington for a perfect example of what could happen when a rookie QB starts for a poor team.

But one of the reasons the Falcons took Ryan with the third overall pick in 2008 draft instead of tabbing Brian Brohm or Chad Henne in later rounds is because Ryan was arguably the most NFL-ready quarterback. He doesn’t have the strongest arm or best physical tools, but he’s a natural born leader and is cool under pressure. In other words, Ryan has shown in the past that he could probably handle being a rookie starter. And with players like Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood and Roddy White, it’s not like he doesn’t have any weapons at his disposal.

It’s only been one preseason game and thus it’s far too early to deem Ryan a starter. But Saturday night was a good start and if he continues to progress throughout August, he may force the Falcons’ hand to start him in Week 1.

NFL

Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan

Defensive Team By Committee

August 10, 2008 / John Paulsen

In the world of fantasy football, Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) is a smart way to get good production out of your starting defensive slot without spending a middle round pick on a top tier defense on draft day. Since defenses are so difficult to predict year to year and since defensive success depends largely on the quality of the opponent, a savvy fantasy owner can pick two mediocre defenses very late in draft and, with their favorable combined schedule, get top tier production.

To that end, I used FootballGuys.com writer Clayton Gray’s strength of schedule data, which is fantasy points driven and has no bias of schedule. I eliminated the consensus top eight defenses by Average Draft Position (ADP) because those defenses – Chargers, Vikings, Cowboys, Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars, Bears and Colts – are going too early on draft day. I also eliminated the bottom seven defenses (via the FBG rankings) because it’s unlikely that owners are going to want to run the Falcons, Bengals, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs, Rams or Dolphins out there on a regular basis. Now there are a few teams on that list that could turn a good defensive year (I’m looking at you, San Francisco), but it’s wise to look elsewhere for a good DTBC.

That leaves 17 teams and 136 possible combinations. Total combined scores range from 117.4 (CLE/WAS) to 161.9 (NO/BUF), so the Saints and Bills have the best combined schedule. This makes them an attractive DTBC to acquire on draft day, though there’s another combination you should try to land first…

SEA/BUF

The Seahawks had the third most fantasy points last season, according to Antsports’ High Performance scoring system. The acquisitions of Julian Peterson and Patrick Kerney (before last season) have given the team two effective, dynamic players and an easier schedule (as compared to 2007) bodes very well for the Seahawks.

The Bills acquired Marcus Stroud and middle linebacker Paul Posluszny is finally getting healthy. Buffalo’s schedule meshes very well with a number of teams (NO, GB, DEN, NYJ and CAR), so if you are unable to land the Seahawks, all is not lost.

So how do you draft with this strategy in mind? Later in the draft, when other fantasy owners start to pick the top defenses, don’t fall into the trap of going along with the run at the position. Instead, draft for depth at running back, wide receiver, quarterback and tight end. Then, around the 13th round, when the top seven or eight defenses are gone, start to think about the Seahawks. If they’re available, grab them, then follow it up with the Bills in the final round or two. If you miss out on Seattle, grab Green Bay. If you miss out on both, wait until the last few rounds and grab the Bills and the Saints. New Orleans was the #17 defense last year and the addition of LB Jonathan Vilma, CB Randall Gay and DT Sedrick Ellis should give the Saints a dangerous defense.

If you manage to get the Seahawks and Bills, this is how you would start them week to week: SEA, SEA, BUF, BUF, BUF, SEA, BUF, SEA, BUF, SEA, SEA, BUF, BUF, BUF, SEA, SEA

BUF/NO: BUF, BUF, BUF, NO, BUF, NO, BUF, NO, BUF, NO, NO, BUF, BUF, NO, NO, NO

BUF/GB: BUF, GB, BUF, BUF, BUF, GB, BUF, BUF, GB, GB, GB, BUF, BUF, BUF, BUF, GB

Fantasy Football, NFL

Michael Phelps wins first Bejing gold medal in 400 IM

August 10, 2008 / John Paulsen

One down, seven to go.

Michael Phelps got off to a blistering start in Bejing, setting a new world record in the 400-meter individual medley. He now needs seven more gold medals to break Mark Spitz’s record of seven in one Olympiad.

“I’m not downplaying this race by any means, but I have to put that race behind me,” Phelps said. “I have to act like it never happened because I have so many tough races ahead of me.”
This was supposed to be one of the toughest, especially after fellow American and good friend Ryan Lochte matched Phelps stroke for stroke at the U.S. Olympic trials just over a month ago. Both went under the previous world record in the 400 IM then, with Phelps touching first in 4:05.25.
But Phelps beat Lochte when it really mattered. Laszlo Cseh of Hungary took the silver in 4:06.16, while Lochte faded to third in 4:08.09 — more than 4 seconds behind.
“Going into the last 50 and looking to my right and seeing that I was ahead of Ryan and Laszlo, I sort of started smiling,” Phelps said.

Phelps is taking a pragmatic approach to his quest for history. It’s dangerous to get too high or too low after any one event when there is so much left to accomplish.

Enjoy the moment and move on to the next task at hand.

The Olympics

Michael Phelps Swimming

Redeem Team blows by China, 101-70

August 10, 2008 / John Paulsen

It was a rough start for Team USA in its Olympic opener as China made eight of its first 12 three-point shots. After that run of hot shooting, China was still within three (35-32) with 4:10 to play in the second quarter, but the U.S. outscored the Chinese 66-38 over the last two and a half quarters to win, 101-70.

Dwyane Wade came off the bench to lead Team USA in scoring with 19 points, shooting 7 of 7 from the field and 5 of 5 from the free throw line. LeBron James had an outstanding games, posting 18 points, six rebounds, three assists and three blocks, including two spectacular rejections in the first half.

The U.S. was sloppy at times and struggled to get good inside shots against China’s 2-3 zone. Shooting is still a team weakness as the U.S. made just 7 of 24 from long range. But the Americans’ overall athleticism was just too much in the end.

For China, Yao Ming posted 13 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks, and looked pretty active coming off a foot injury. Yi Jianlian, who was drafted by the Bucks but was recently traded to the Nets, had a pretty rough game, missing his first seven shots and finishing 4 of 13 from the field. China is going to need him to play better to make the medal round.

Team USA’s next game is Tuesday morning against Angola. Check your local listings.

Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Draft, The Olympics

Dwyane Wade LeBron James Redeem Team Team USA Yao Ming Yi Jianlian