On the heels of Rafael Furcal’s re-signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Ken Rosenthal has predicted the likely destinations of baseball’s top 11 remaining free agents.
1. Mark Teixeira (1B) to the Red Sox
With CC Sabathia gone, Teixeira is the big-ticket item remaining on the market. The price is going to be high, but given Teixeira’s age (28), he looks like the surest bet out there. Teixeira routinely puts up a line of .300-30-100 and plays strong defense. In the right park, he may push for 40 home runs. The Red Sox are hot on his trail, but they have company from the Nats and possibly others
2. Manny Ramirez (LF) to the Yankees
The market on Manny has been very difficult to gauge. The Winter Meetings brought nothing but more rumors. The latest development is that the Angels have some interest. There’s no doubting Manny’s bat, or his ability to carry a team when motivated. He and Mark Teixeira remain the top-two sluggers on the market.
3. Derek Lowe (SP) to the Red Sox
With CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett off the market, Lowe becomes arguably the most reliable free-agent starter. Ben Sheets may have better stuff, but Lowe has consistency on his side. Lowe posted his lowest ERA (3.24) since 2002 last season and has pitched 180 innings or more for seven straight years.
4. Adam Dunn (RF) to the Nationals
Like Burrell, Dunn has an enticing power stroke but a susceptibility to too many Ks and a low batting average. But unlike Burrell, when it comes to Dunn we’re talking 40 homers a season, not 30. That means there’s always going to be a market for Dunn, who has hit 40 or more home runs in five consecutive seasons.
5. Ben Sheets (SP) to the Rangers
The Yankees were mentioned to have interest in Sheets during the Winter Meetings, but nothing came of it. Sheets has ace stuff, but doesn’t always stay healthy. Having said that, Sheets threw 198 innings last season, his most since 2004. His ’08 ERA of 3.09 might be too hard to resist for teams willing to gamble on a potential No. 1.
8. Pat Burrell (RF) to the Mets
Burrell’s overall numbers paint the picture of a dynamic slugger who offers an all-or-nothing to his team. He can jack it out of the park with the best of them, but is prone to long lulls as evidenced by his .210 batting average in the second half last season. But still, 30 homers is 30 homers, and that may be too much to resist for a team in need of a power stick.
A close look at Rosenthal’s list fits with most of the discussion around the hot stove league. This is the offseason of the almighty dollar, the cold period within winter when the Yankees and Red Sox scoop up the biggest names floating around the market. With that in mind, it seems odd that Rosenthal would exclude the Dodgers and Angels from his list, given that they are two of the most profitable organizations in the league.
Mark Teixiera and Derek Lowe have both expressed their preference for playing on the East Coast. If the Red Sox do sign Teixiera and Lowe, I can’t imagine how high their payroll will be, given their already exceptional lineup. Still, I can see the allure of playing for the Red Sox Nation. Think about it: Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Mark Teixiera, Jonathan Papelbon, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Derek Lowe. If the Red Sox can make this happen, they’ll have the best team in baseball. Period.
In the inevitability that the Dodgers don’t re-sign Lowe (and Brad Penny, Nomar Garciaparra, and Jeff Kent), they will be left with a pile of money to spend. Although Manny in pinstripes would be exciting, the Dodgers know they need a bat in their lineup that can crank out more than 25 homeruns a season. Unless the Yankees are prepared to offer Manny a five-year contract worth around $120 million, Manny will be forced to sign with the only other team that wants him, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Who knows, maybe Hank Steinbrenner is more serious than we all thought, and he’ll manage to bring over the Dreadlocked One. On a side note: how awesome is the AL East going to be with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays all competing with powerful teams? Anyway, after the Dodgers wise up and sign Manny, their GM Ned Colletti will have to find a replacement for Lowe as the ace in their rotation. And who better than Ben Sheets? Ben, if you want a shot at making the playoffs, the sign points west of Texas, to la-la land.
As for the Angels, I don’t know what GM Tony Reagins has up his sleeve. After failing to pick up veteran outfielder Garrett Anderson’s option and with Teixiera likely heading to Boston, it’s unclear how the Angels are planning on spending their money. They could always sign Jason Giambi who can still hit and isn’t terrible at his position. Then, to fill that hole in the outfield, they can pick up Bobby Abreu. Oh right, they need a closer! Brian Fuentes?
Man, baseball is going to be so exciting next year.
