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What do the odds say about where Peyton Manning will play in 2012?

Now that he has officially be released from the Colts, speculation is heating up on where Peyton Manning will sign for the 2012 season.

So what do the odds say about which team will sign Manning when the free agency period kicks off next week?

According to oddsmakers at the online sports book Sportsbook.com, the Dolphins are the favorites to land Manning at +125. The team with the next best odds is the Cardinals at +350, followed by the Chiefs at +600, the Jets at +700, and the Seahawks and Redskins at +800, respectively.

Some of the long shots include the Broncos (+1000), 49ers (+1000), Texans (+1800) and Titans (+1800). There’s also +600 odds on “The Field,” which constitutes any other team not listed by the website, as well as “No Team,” which has odds of +1200. “No Team” comes with the stipulation that Manning doesn’t throw a pass in the 2012/13 NFL regular season.

As expected, rumors are flying in regards to where Peyton will wind up. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported this morning that the Chiefs and Broncos have spoken to Manning’s reps, although Peyton reportedly has no interest in playing for a cold weather team. If that’s true, that would theoretically take the Broncos, Chiefs, Jets and Seahawks out of the running, while making teams like the Cardinals and Dolphins the frontrunners.

Personally I’m pulling for Manning to wind up in New York, although only because it would make for the best storylines. Manning and Brady could go toe-to-toe twice a year and the Manning brothers would be playing in the same city. Plus, the dynamics between Peyton and Rex Ryan would be fun to watch unfold.

The Manning era is over in Indy but let’s enjoy Peyton’s presence while we still can

Even though this moment has been coming for a couple of months, it still seems sudden. Weird. Wrong even.

I can still remember thinking that the Colts made a poor decision by drafting Peyton Manning instead of Ryan Leaf. “Look at this feet,” I used to say while watching Tennessee games. “He’s so jittery in the pocket. He’s going to be an erratic passer in the NFL.”

Fifteen seasons, two Super Bowl appearances, four MVP awards, 11 Pro Bowls, and gobs of passing records later and the Peyton Manning era is officially over in Indianapolis. The moment hardly seems real. We’ve gotten so used to Manning peering through that blue facemask with the horseshoes on each side of his helmet that it’s hard to imagine him in any other uniform. I kind of figured he would just go on playing forever, barking out signals for the Colts well into his 80s.

Nobody is at fault for this separation. This is life after all, where things ultimately come to an end. The Indianapolis Colts were around 45 years prior to Manning arriving in 1998 and they’ll be around long after he’s gone, too. Even for as much as he’s meant to the organization, Manning will inevitability be just one key figure in an organization that also had the pleasure of watching Johnny Unitas, Raymond Berry, and John Mackey don its uniform. The Colts are a rebuilding team now and rebuilding teams don’t pay $28 million roster bonuses to 35-year-old quarterbacks coming off multiple neck surgeries. Their horrific 2011 season has given them a chance to draft the next Peyton Manning and they can’t forgo that opportunity because they’re sentimentally tied to one of the greatest players their organization has ever seen. It’s time to move on.

Manning will move on as well. As a football fan it’s exciting to listen to him talk about continuing his career, barring his health is okay, of course. We’ve never been treated to Peyton Manning the free agent and while he isn’t 26 anymore, it’s fun to read speculation about the Jets, Dolphins, and Chiefs being interested in his services. The storylines will be endless, especially if he winds up in New York with his brother.

Many people assume that he’s damaged goods and maybe he is. Maybe he’ll never be able to throw a pass longer than 15 yards and maybe he’ll be a disaster next year. Maybe he should hang ‘em up so that he doesn’t risk more damage to his health.

But what if he can still play? Can you imagine what he’d do for a team like the Jets, a team that has been starved for good quarterback play since Rex Ryan became their head coach in 2009? He may never be the Peyton of old but he doesn’t have to be in order to win another Super Bowl. The 1997 and 1998 Denver Broncos were Terrell Davis’ teams – not John Elway’s. But because Elway knew how to take a step back, the Broncos were very successful with him under center.

Or maybe he won’t have an Elway-like finish to his career. So be it. Manning will still go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever played the game and people will remember him in Indy blue and white. But thanks to his decision to keep playing, football fans will be treated to a “bonus round” of sorts. It certainly won’t be the same as watching him orchestrate the Colts’ offense while dissecting defenses like a surgeon, but it’ll be something new and fresh.

The Peyton Manning era in Indianapolis is over and sooner rather than later, the Peyton Manning NFL era will have concluded as well. But for now, I’m going to enjoy watching that jittery-footed Peyton give it one more shot in another team’s uniform.

RG3 and his speed

Jason Whitlock has an interesting take on Robert Griffin III and the impressive 40-time he displayed at the combine.

In my opinion, Griffin’s speed doesn’t enhance his draft stock. It damages it.

I am not a Robert Griffin hater. I love RG3. In all likelihood, he will be my favorite NFL player next season. He could quickly become my favorite active athlete, ahead of Tiger Woods, Ray Lewis and Jeff George (has yet to file his retirement paperwork).

But I’m worried about Griffin. He’s blessed with too many tools. Oftentimes, the greatest athletes are physically limited, which strengthens their focus. Bill Russell could never match Wilt Chamberlain’s size and limitless athleticism. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson weren’t the greatest leapers or the quickest on their feet.

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are relatively immobile. They play from the pocket because they have no choice. They mastered the art of playing from the pocket because they had no other choice.

NFL games are won most consistently by quarterbacks who play from the pocket. If a quarterback leaves the pocket, he’s going to get hit. If a quarterback gets hit regularly, he’s going to get hurt. If a franchise quarterback gets injured, his team has little chance of winning the Super Bowl.

NFL teams are looking for the next Manning or Brady. Or the next Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. A little mobility is good, especially if the quarterback moves in the pocket in an effort to throw downfield. Rodgers and Big Ben are terrific at moving to throw. Is that how Griffin will use his athleticism?

Or does Griffin have so much speed that he’ll channel Michael Vick?

Whitlock goes on to recount Vick’s early problems as he relied too much on his speed and athleticism. Athletes like Steve Young had to learn how to stay in the pocket.

Whitlock basically sums up the primary reason why Andrew Luck is rated higher than RG3, even as some think RG3 has more upside. It’s a risk/reward analysis. Luck has shown that he can win strictly as a pocket passer, using his athleticism only when needed.

Can RG3 learn to play that way? Of course he can. But just because he has the aptitude and temperament to learn doesn’t guarantee success. Luck isn’t guaranteed success either, but we’ve seen him operate consistently from the pocket, so there’s less risk.

Report: Drew Brees “livid” about franchise tag

WIST-AM New Orleans is reporting that Drew Brees is “livid” about being franchised tagged and will not sign his tender.

Drew Brees is “livid” about being franchise tagged and not receiving a long-term contract, according to WIST-AM in New Orleans. The radio station cites sources in the Brees camp that he will not sign the franchise tag deal. Brees and the Saints have until July 15 to hammer out a long-term deal. If a deal isn’t struck, Brees must sign the franchise tag deal or hold out.

Brees doesn’t seem like the type to be “livid” about anything, so there’s a chance that this report isn’t accurate. But if it is, how bad could things continue to get in New Orleans?

I don’t think there’s a chance in Hades that the Saints don’t figure out a way to lock up Brees long term, but they’re facing some major issues right now. They’re currently awaiting punishment from the league for their “bounty program” fiasco, their best offensive lineman (Carl Nicks) and No. 1 receiver (Marques Colston) are about to hit the open market, and Brees’ contract situation is a mess. They’re even scheduled to work out Randy Moss on Tuesday for cribs’ sake.

The Saints have been a NFL powerhouse for the last three years but their roster could look very different come next fall. Don’t forget that along with Nicks and Colston, Robert Meachem is also a free agent and there’s talk that middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma will be released. The team did well to hire Steve Spagnuolo to replace Gregg Williams as their next defensive coordinator but their linebacker corps remains weak and outside of Will Smith, the cupboard isn’t exactly stacked with quality pass rushers.

Things will eventually start to stabilize again in New Orleans. But by that point, will they have forked over a couple of draft picks and watched some of their top players depart in free agency?

Packers don’t use franchise tag on Matt Flynn

Ever since his record-shattering game against the Lions at the end of the 2011 season, Matt Flynn has been a hot topic. He isn’t getting quite as much press as RG3 (who is, other than Jeremy Lin?), but he’s still one of the key pieces in what will be one of the wildest offseasons in NFL history.

Today we learned that the Green Bay Packers have let Flynn become an unrestricted free agent by not using the franchise tag on him as many had speculated. It was the right call. Flynn will get plenty of attention as a free agent, but as a signed player with a one-year contract in the neighborhood of $14 million, the path to obtaining Flynn would end up being much tougher for many teams.

If you watch the video above, you’ll see that some of Flynn’s eye-pooping stats from that game were created by the great Packer playmakers. One of his six touchdowns resulted from a simple screen pass that went for around 80 yards. Yet you’ll also see some great passes from Flynn as well. Is he a risk with only two pro starts under his belt? Of course he is. Is he potentially a system quarterback? Sure. But he learned that offense from the best, and he seems to have all the intangibles, so a West Coast Offense team like Cleveland could plug him in right away.

Who knows where he’ll end up, but he and Peyton Manning will have a huge impact on the future of a lot of teams, as their signings will also impact the market for Robert Griffin III, which will then impact where the rest of the college quarterbacks go in the draft. Betting NFL games will be very interesting at the beginning of next season, as we’ll have quite a few new quarterbacks, along with veterans like Manning offering up plenty of questions as you browse the lines and check on your sportsbook reviews.

It all probably starts with the Miami Dolphins. This might be the perfect fit for Matt Flynn as they now have his former offensive coordinator, Joe Philbin, as the new head coach. Yet their owner seems intent on becoming the next Daniel Snyder, so rumors are circulating about Miami going after Peyton Manning. And then of course we have the real Mr. Snyder to account for as the Redskins are rumored to be hot for RG3.

Who knows how all of this plays out, but with Flynn becoming a free agent and Manning sure to follow, it’s way too soon to guess what will happen in the draft.

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