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      NHL Notes from On Goal Analysis (10/12)

      October 12, 2009 /

      We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to bring our readers innovative, insightful hockey commentary throughout the season. Enjoy.

      Submitted by Mike Pryor

      A Note Caused By Atlanta

      A 9 October blog by Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal Constitution caught my eye. Within, he indicated Thrashers’ coach John Anderson statement that, while the team had been outshot in its first two games, they are being more ‘…shot selective….’ This selectivity had actually produced 10 goals on 50 shots, or a scoring rate of 20%.

      It made me wonder what are all teams’ scoring percentages in terms of goals divided by SOG, and how would that project over 82 games. Based on games ending on Saturday, 10 October, I came up with this:

      ogatable1

      While the numbers are interesting, there are some anomalies to point out what with it being early in the season and all. First is that the average number of projected goals over 82 games this season (‘Proj Gs’) is about 6.2% higher than last year. That sounds great! Were it not for the eight teams projected with 300+, and five teams with totals in the 100’s, I would think we are going to gleefully be witnessing more red lights. The truth is we are more likely to see those numbers even out amongst the clubs as the season wears on (last year, there were NO teams with 300 goals and only one in the 100’s) and any increase in scoring being more in the 1-2% range if it actually occurs.

      Despite this being the early part of the season are a few other noteworthy facts. ATL’s 10 goals / 50 SOGs = 20% scoring percentage calculation is no longer valid after Saturday night. The highest percentage team on that chart is CGY at 15.5% or one goal in every 6 – 7 SOG. ATL is right behind with a 15.39% rate, but is now under that 20% that started me thinking. Still, it kinda sucks to play the Flames and face 35 shots, eh?

      On the other side of the coin, however, you have BUF with a paultry 3.45% scoring percentage. Could it be the youngsters they have playing? Sabres’ line combinations? Something is amiss, here.

      But when the average number of SOG per team and per game was 30.27 after Saturday night, that means CGY outscores BUF 5 – 1. Shoot – it means EVERYONE outscores BUF. Just not in regulation, right? I love irony. I also know this scoring rate bares watching throughout the season.

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      NHL

      Jaguars’ Groves involved in hit-and-run

      October 12, 2009 /

      First Coast News is reporting that Jaguars’ defender Quentin Groves has been accused by a motorist of being involved in a hit-and-run car crash, which took place on Friday.

      The father of one of the drivers, Robyn Jackett, says Groves hit his son’s car and another car and then fled the scene.

      According to an crash report, it happened Friday, which was when the Jaguars were flying to Seattle, near the entrance to the airport at Pecan Park and Yankee Clipper Drive.

      Jackett says his son was approaching the intersection when a Cadillac Escalade changing lanes clipped another car and sent it spinning.

      The Escalade then changed lanes again and stopped abruptly and Jackett’s car ended up wedged under the Escalade.
      According to Jackett, Groves then stepped out of his car, said he was a Jaguars player and had a plane to catch and drove off.

      Both Jackett and the other driver involved told First Coast News another driver that witnessed the crash then followed Groves down the road and blocked him from driving away until airport police arrived.

      But the report shows Groves was only given a warning for improper lane change.

      I don’t want to draw conclusions from one article, but this sounds like another athlete who doesn’t think the law applies to him. But let’s see what other details emerge.

      NFL

      Yankees sweep Twins, set up ALCS matchup with Angels

      October 12, 2009 /

      Brady

      Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada each homered on Sunday as the Yankees defeated the Twins 4-1 to complete a three-game sweep in the ALDS. New York will now face the Angels in the ALCS.

      “People can say whatever they want about home runs and big hits,” Rodriguez said. “If you don’t pitch and you don’t defend, you are not going to win. The story of this has been CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte, and all three of them were fantastic.”

      “I think we played the same way we have been playing the whole regular season,” Posada said. “I think pitching is just so important when it comes to a series like this. Once you see it, you understand why pitching is so important now.”
      Pavano frustrated the Yankees for four years of an injury-marred signing, and for six innings, he did it in a different way.

      Setting a new Twins postseason record with a nine-strikeout performance, Pavano saw his cruise turn sour in the seventh as A-Rod continued his monster ALDS.

      The reborn slugger crushed a game-tying line-drive home run that struck the top row of the football bleachers in right field. It was the second homer of the series from Rodriguez, who belted a game-tying shot late in Game 2 at Yankee Stadium and finished the series with a .455 batting average and six RBIs.

      The Yankees have a long way to go before they’re hoisting a World Series trophy, but they have to be encouraged from what they saw vs. the Twins. A-Rod is actually hitting in the playoffs and their biggest concern over the past couple of years (their pitching) is coming through as well.

      That said, it’s imperative that CC Sabathia pitches well to help set the tone for the ALCS. The Angels have one of the top offenses in baseball and will certainly test the Yankees’ resolve. This should be a great series.

      MLB

      Fantasy Fallout, Week 5: QBs

      October 12, 2009 /

      – It’s not surprising that Ben Roethlisberger (277 yards, 3 TD, INT) had a nice game against the Lions, but it is surprising that he had to throw the ball 30 times.

      – Matt Cassel (253 yards, 2 TD) struggled to stay upright behind Kansas City’s shaky line, but finished with nice numbers.

      – Tony Romo (351 yards, 2 TD) didn’t play quite as well as his numbers would indicate, as Miles Austin’s spectacular runs saved the day for the Cowboys.

      – Donovan McNabb (264 yards, 3 TD) posted great numbers against a very bad Bucs pass defense.

      – Josh Johnson (240 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT) is going to have his share of struggles, but he’s going to produce some decent fantasy numbers since the Bucs look like they’ll be trailing a lot this season. Along with Kellen Winslow, if Antonio Bryant can stay healthy, Johnson will have a couple of good options in the passing game. He also runs the ball pretty well (5 carries, 40 yards against the Eagles).

      – Kyle Orton (330 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) had his best game of the season, but almost gave the game away when he underthrew Brandon Marshall in overtime. He was lucky that pass didn’t get picked off.

      – Think the Seahawks need Matt Hasselbeck (241 yards, 4 TD)? Granted, Jacksonville’s defense is pretty terrible, but Hass was sharp in his first game back.

      Fantasy Football

      Fantasy Fallout, Week 5: RBs

      October 12, 2009 /

      – Just a tremendous effort from Cedric Benson (29 touches, 136 yards) who became the first RB to rush for more than 100 yards against the Ravens. He looks like an every-week start.

      – Ray Rice (14 carries, 69 yards) ran the ball well and caught seven passes for 74 yards and a TD. Willis McGahee surprisingly only got two touches the entire game.

      – Marshawn Lynch (23 touches, 125 yards) seems to be taking over in the Buffalo backfield, but Fred Jackson (15 touches, 47 yards) is still involved.

      – Jamal Lewis (31 carries, 117 yards) was questionable all week, but dominated the carries in the Cleveland backfield. Jerome Harrison only had eight carries for 21 yards.

      – Jonathan Stewart (11 touches, 45 yards, TD) was healthy enough to eat into DeAngelo Williams’ (20 touches, 59 yards) workload, and it was Stewart who got most of the goal line work.

      – Clinton Portis (21 touches, 74 yards, 2 TD) didn’t run the ball all that well, but he scored twice against the Panthers.

      – Rashard Mendenhall (17 touches, 93 yards, TD) had another nice game with Willie Parker out, and he should have earned himself some more work even when Parker returns.

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      Fantasy Football

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