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      2009 College Football Week 12 Picks & Predictions

      November 18, 2009 /

      Last week was bitter sweet as I went 4-0 straight up but just 1-3 against the spread. Keep in mind that I try to only pick top 25 games, so they’re much, much harder to predict. Like, much harder. (Or at least that’s my excuse anyway.)

      No. 8 LSU at Mississippi, 3:30PM ET
      Both of these SEC teams will be looking to finish the 2009 season strong when they square off this Saturday in Oxford. The Rebels snapped a six-game losing streak to the Tigers last season but they haven’t won at home in his series since 1998. The public seems high on Ole Miss after the Rebs hammered Tennessee last Saturday, but keep in mind that the Vols were in the midst of some turmoil after three of their players were arrested for attempted armed robbery last week. Dexter McCluster went off on Tennessee for 282 yards and four touchdowns, but he’ll have a hard time repeating that effort against a stout LSU front seven. Something tells me that Les Miles’ team is still pissed off about what happened two weeks again in Tuscaloosa and will play this week with passion. I see a small upset for the Tigers and an outright win.
      Odds: Ole Miss –4.5.
      Prediction: LSU 20, Ole Miss 17.

      No. 25 California at No. 17 Stanford, 7:30PM ET
      Stanford is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now. The Cardinal have scored 106 points combined against Oregon and USC the past two weeks and senior running back Toby Gerhart has almost been unstoppable. Without running back Jahvid Best, Cal squeaked by Arizona last week, 24-16. With Best sidelined again this Saturday, many expect Stanford to roll but don’t forget that Cal has the 19th best run defense in the nation and is capable of containing Gerhart and keeping things close. Quarterback Kevin Riley might be able to take advantage of a Stanford secondary that has been inconsistent this season, although without the threat of a running game the Bears’ offense might become too one-dimensional in the second half. I think Stanford will pull out the victory but this game will be closer than people think.
      Odds: Stanford –7.5.
      Prediction: Stanford 35, Cal 31.

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      College Football

      Line of the Night (11/17): Kevin Durant

      November 18, 2009 /

      At some point, I’ll stop writing these “Oklahoma City is surprising” posts, but I have to say that I was surprised when I saw that the Thunder upset the Heat in Miami. A big reason for the win was Kevin Durant, who posted 32 points, nine rebounds, five assists, one steal and one blocked shot. He hit 11-23 shots, including 1-2 from downtown. He made all nine of his free throws.

      With the win, the young Thunder are 6-5 and are currently in the 7th spot in the playoffs in the West, although we obviously have a long way to go. It would be fun to see Oklahoma fighting for a playoff spot at the end of the season.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA

      2009 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads & Odds

      November 18, 2009 /

      Along with a complete list of point spreads for this weekend, here is a quick-hit look at some of the marquee matchups in Week 11 of the NFL.

      Colts (9-0) at Ravens (5-4), 1:00PM ET
      After earning a win Sunday night thanks in large part to Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28-yard line, the Colts head to Baltimore to take on a Ravens team brimming with confidence after shutting out Cleveland (not like that’s hard to do) on Monday night. The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been as good over the past month as it was earlier in the season and they might have trouble moving the ball against a stout (although injury-plagued) Indy defense. Last time the Colts traveled to Baltimore was during the postseason three years ago when Indy eventually went on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts beat the Ravens 15-6 that day, but Peyton Manning was picked off twice and finished with just 170 yards and no touchdowns.

      Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
      Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton and Knowshon Moreno weren’t around last year when Denver coughed up the AFC West title to San Diego after taking a decent lead late in the season. But that has to be on the minds of the Broncos who did play in the Denver last season. The Broncos already went into San Diego and beat the Chargers earlier this season on Monday night, but that was before the Bolts’ defense started playing better and Philip Rivers wasn’t winning games on his own. Rivers has been outstanding over the past couple of weeks and the running game finally showed a pulse in last week’s win over the Eagles. The Chargers are playing with a ton of confidence right now, while the Broncos have lost three in a row. A loss this weekend and the Denver faithful will start thinking, “Here we go ago.”

      Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
      Something has to give between these two teams; the Falcons have lost three of their last four, while the Giants have lost four in a row. Atlanta will be at a major disadvantage without running back Michael Turner (high ankle sprain), plus New York is coming off its bye so it had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Both Matt Ryan and Eli Manning have struggled over the past month with poor decision-making, interceptions and inaccuracy. Both of these teams are desperate for a win to stay within the NFC Wild Card hunt.

      Jets (4-5) at Patriots (6-3), 4:15PM ET
      A lot has changed since Week 2 when the Jets upset the Patriots in East Rutherford: Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez isn’t playing with as much confidence as he had been and now there are cracks in Rex Ryan’s vaunted defense. Bill Belichick and the Pats are angry after giving a win away in Indianapolis last Sunday night and will certainly look to bury a New York team that was so boastful about wanting to beat the New England earlier in the season. This game could get ugly in a hurry.

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      NFL

      Ronnie Brown done for the year?

      November 18, 2009 /

      ProFootballTalk.com reports that Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown could miss the remainder of the season after suffering a foot injury in Miami’s win over the Buccaneers last Sunday.

      The Dolphins have not publicly acknowledged that the team fears Brown will miss the remainder of the season.

      Per a league source, the current thinking is that Brown will not be able to play again this year. Of course, this could change based upon the advice of the specialist that Brown eventually sees and the success of rehab efforts.

      The challenge for the Dolphins will be to decide whether to carry Brown on the roster in the hopes he can return, or to send him to injured reserve and create a roster spot.

      PFT.com is hit and miss with its reporting, so take this news with a grain of salt. The site rarely (if ever) reveals its sources, so so nobody knows if its writers are talking to general managers or their imaginary friends.

      Still, it’s not unrealistic to think that Brown is out for the year given how concerned the Dolphins were about his injury following Sunday’s win. If he is done, it would be a devastating blow to a team that was already facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs with him in the lineup.

      Ricky Williams would shoulder the main running back duties for Miami in Brown’s absence. Williams has been solid this season, but how much of that is because he splits time with Brown? There’s a likely chance that Williams will start to wear down if the Dolphins can’t find a decent replacement for Brown.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      NFL

      Bill Belichick was right…

      November 17, 2009 /

      …at least according to Gregg Easterbrook.

      Indianapolis had only one timeout, so a first down would have all but won the game. On the night, the Patriots had averaged 6.6 yards per play, so the chance of gaining 2 yards was auspicious. As Tim Graham of ESPN.com has noted, since Tom Brady became New England’s starting quarterback, the Patriots have converted 76 percent of their fourth-and-short attempts. A 3-in-4 chance to win is a pretty inviting opportunity.

      Which seems like a better gamble — 2 yards to win the game, or two minutes to shut down Peyton Manning when the Colts are hot? In 2007, AccuScore did thousands of computer simulations of the punt-or-go-for-it question for TMQ. One finding was that between your own 21-yard line and your own 35, you should go for it on fourth-and-2 or less. In test after test, doing this improved a team’s chance of victory — though, of course, there is no guarantee. No coach can control what happens on the field. Had New England punted, Indianapolis might have run the kick back for a touchdown, for instance. All the coach can do is make a decision that improves the team’s odds. Belichick made such a decision.

      Two things to note:

      1. While the Pats did average 6.6 yards per play on the night, they only averaged 2.8 yards per play in their final three possessions (not including Faulk’s 1-yard catch). The New England offense wasn’t as productive in the fourth quarter as it was during the first three.

      2. While Brady may own a 76% success rate on fourth down, during those last three drives, just six of the preceding 16 plays (38%) went for more than two yards. That didn’t bode well for the Pats’ 4th-and-2.

      I have no problem with computer simulations, but there is something about a 4th-and-whatever with the game on the line that can’t be quantified. Emotions are higher and everyone tightens up. It becomes tougher to execute. Officials are less likely to call a penalty, thinking that unless it’s obvious, players should decide the outcome (especially when the home crowd isn’t going to like your call).

      Belichick’s reasoning is understandable. Tom Brady is his best player and he’d rather have the ball in his hands then punt it to Peyton Manning, who just made short work of his tired defense on the previous possession. Had Faulk caught the ball cleanly, we’d all be talking about how gutsy (and brilliant?) it was to go for the first down to win the game.

      But it didn’t work out, and Belichick is left with egg on his face.

      NFL

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