Common sense says “no.” But Bill Simmons, the self-proclaimed VP of Common Sense, says it’s not such a crazy idea after all. He has one caveat: It has to be a “Godfather”-type offer (one the Hornets couldn’t refuse).
Fake Trade 8A: Houston trades Aaron Brooks (expires in 2011) with T-Mac, Scola and Brian Cook (all expire in 2010) for Chris Paul and the Peja-Songaila-Posey cap-killing trio. Considering Houston’s deep pockets, it would have to do it — how else could the Rockets acquire a top-10 player? And New Orleans would fall under the tax (saving them about $16-17 million this year, plus another $25-30 million next year) and replace a decent chunk of Paul’s production with a Brooks/Darren Collison combo.
Fake Trade 8B: Same trade as above, only with Miami giving up three ECs (Jermaine O’Neal, Mario Chalmers and Dorell Wright) plus Michael Beasley. Not as good a deal as the Houston one. Although the thought of a Wade-Paul backcourt just made me pee on myself.
Fake Trade 8C: Cleveland deals the Shaq/Ilgauskas ECs with Jamario Moon (expiring 2011), J.J. Hickson (ditto) and Jawad Williams/Darnell Jackson (EC throw-ins) for CP3, Emeka Okafor, Peja, Peterson and Songaila. That knocks the Hornets well under this year’s tax, gets them out of $26.6 million of Peja-Songaila-Peterson in 2011 AND dumps Okafor’s monster deal ($70 million through 2014). Sure, it’s the biggest salary dump trade of all time. But shouldn’t New Orleans do the Grizzlies routine for a year or two (super-low payroll, rebuild through the draft) rather than losing $25-30 million a year to be a fringe contender these next three years? And if you’re Cleveland, don’t you have to take a risk like this to keep LeBron?
Looking at the Hornets’ cap situation, they’re not going to have any real cap flexibility until the summer of 2012, which is the same summer that Paul can opt out of the final year of his contract. The Hornets could create about $12-$13 million of cap space in 2011 if they are able to move James Posey.
The Hornets’ current dilemma is largely due to the decision to trade for Peja Stojakovic in 2006. GM Jeff Bower took a risk, thinking he’d get the Sacramento-era sharpshooting Stojakovic, one capable of spacing the court for Paul to do his work. Unfortunately, Stojakovic isn’t the scorer that he once was, and he’s such a defensive liability that it’s tough to give him big minutes. Moreover, he has a monster contract that will pay him another $14 million next season.
So do the Hornets continue to play the luxury tax for a team that doesn’t seem to be going anywhere? Unless someone wants to take on one of these big contracts, no major changes can be made until the summer of 2011, and by then West will be unsigned and about to turn 31.
The Okafor/Chandler trade was a sign that owner George Shinn isn’t afraid to spend, so I don’t see him blowing up the franchise (i.e. trading Chris Paul) to save money. He’s more likely to ride out these bad contracts, tinker around the edges, and try to create a situation to re-build around Paul in 2011 or 2012. Paul can’t opt out until 2012, and I don’t think he’ll want to leave — he has an owner who is willing to spend, but the gambles — Stojakovic, Posey, Peterson — simply haven’t worked out.
There is enough talent in New Orleans for the Hornets to be a perennial playoff team until they can ride the Stojakovic/Peterson/Posey storm out. Unless you’re in dire fiscal shape (and like I said, the Okafor trade is a sign that that’s not the case), you don’t trade away a superstar who is in the middle of his prime.
