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      Albert Pujols calls trade talk “stupid”

      March 16, 2010 /

      Cardinals’ slugger Albert Pujols was a little miffed when he discussed the recent trade rumors involving him and Phillies’ star Ryan Howard.

      From FOXSports.com:

      “There’s people, stupid, that like to write something when it’s not the truth, and that’s all I have to say about that,” he said as the Cardinals visited the New York Mets for an exhibition game.

      “If I’m getting traded, they need to come to me. That’s not my job to go to them,” Pujols said. “I’ve been saying all along I want to be here, but whatever, it’s not up to me. I just think somebody tried to be funny, but it’s so stupid when somebody takes something like that serious.”

      Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. denied his team had discussed a trade and used “lies” and “ridiculous” and “irresponsible” to describe the report, which ESPN based on unidentified sources.

      “I really don’t have anything to say about it,” Howard said at the Phillies’ camp in Clearwater.

      “Truthfully, I can go back to all the stuff that happened when I was in Double-A — all the talk about trade rumors. I don’t know anything about anything. I’m not really focused on it. If that were the case — I don’t know if it is or not — it is what it is. You just keep going out there and doing your thing. If you get a call saying you’re traded, then you’re traded. Until that happens, I’m still a Phillie. I’m still here. Let’s ride it out.”

      Per the ESPN report, the Cardinals and Phillies would swap the two stars before each of their contracts are up. But it sounds like an absolutely ridiculous notion and I don’t think fans should get too riled up over the possibilities here.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      MLB

      Need help filling out your March Madness bracket? (Part 2)

      March 15, 2010 /

      Here’s Part 1, in case you missed it.

      Now that we’ve narrowed the field from 65 to 32, it’s time to tackle the second round and beyond. When filling out your bracket, it’s not a bad idea to start with your Final Four picks and work backwards. I looked at the last six Final Fours to get an idea of the profile of a FF team and discovered the following:

      22 of 24 FF teams (92%) finished the tournament with adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies (i.e. points per possession adjusted for strength of schedule) in the top 30 (LSU ’06, George Mason ’06).
      Here’s the list of teams that qualify heading into 2010: Duke, Kansas, Ohio St., Syracuse, West Virginia, BYU, Wisconsin, K-State, Kentucky and Texas. I’ll include Georgetown as well since their ranked #33 in defensive efficiency and could climb into the top 30 by tourney’s end.

      22 of 24 FF teams (92%) finished the tournament with a Pythagorean win ranking in the top 10 (#23 George Mason ’06, #14 Villanova ’09).
      Win percent can rise about a hundredth of a point over the course of the tournament. (Last year, Michigan State started at .943 and finished at .954 and Villanova went from .929 to .938.) So looking at the Pomeroy numbers, we should be looking at the top 12 teams — Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Syracuse, Kentucky, BYU, WVU, K-State, Maryland, Georgetown and Baylor — as potential FF teams.

      21 of 24 FF teams were in top 7 in either offensive or defensive efficiency (George Mason ’06, Michigan State ’09, Villanova ’09).
      Here are the teams that are in the top 10 in either efficiency: Duke (both), Kansas (both), California (off), Notre Dame (off), Baylor (off), Maryland (off), Ohio St. (off), Villanova (off), Syracuse (off), Georgetown (off), Florida State (def), Temple (def), Purdue (def), Wisconsin (def), Tennessee (def), Clemson (def) and Kentucky (def). I’d include WVU (11th – off) and BYU (12th – off) as well because they would likely finish in the top 7 with a FF run.

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      College Basketball, March Madness

      JaMarcus Russell might as well quit football

      March 15, 2010 /

      I mean really, why even go through the motions at this point? It’s obvious that JaMarcus Russell just doesn’t care about playing professional football.

      The San Francisco Chronicle reports that Russell was a no-show for the start of the Raiders’ offseason conditioning program on Monday. This wouldn’t be a big deal if Russell were already established, but this is the same player that has been criticized profusely about his lack of dedication and work ethic. He’s also entering what should be a make-or-break year so one would assume that he would want to show up to all of the Raiders’ offseason workouts in order to save face with the franchise that paid him $61 million to, thus far, do absolutely nothing.

      Of course, if Russell were a member of any other NFL franchise he would be cut by now. But because the Raiders are a dysfunctional mess led by a dysfunctional owner, he still has the opportunity to win their starting quarterback job again this season. (Although he’s already put himself behind the 8-ball once again after Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye showed up to the workouts today.)

      Not to sound like a bitter sports writer that didn’t have the talent to make it in the NFL (or anything above the high school level for that matter), but it pisses me off that Russell was given this much talent and he’s just throwing it away. He’s flat out stealing money from the Raiders and even if Al Davis doesn’t care, players with more heart and less talent that never got a shot in the NFL should. If he doesn’t want to play, he should do the respectful thing and just quit.


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      NFL

      Need help filling out your March Madness bracket?

      March 15, 2010 /

      Looking for picks for 2011? Click here.

      Hundreds of writers will write hundreds of columns/articles/posts about the 2010 NCAA Tournament, so you may be wondering, why should I listen to this clown?

      In 2007, I picked the winner (Florida) along with one other Final Four team (#2 seed Georgetown). In 2008, I picked the winner (Kansas) along with two other Final Four teams (#1-seed UCLA and #1-seed North Carolina). That was enough to line my pocket with a little cash from a pool each year.

      2009 was another story. Even though I am on record saying that if Ty Lawson’s toe were 90-95% healthy that North Carolina would have been my pick, I ultimately didn’t have enough confidence in Lawson’s health — special thanks Dick Vitale for calling it “cartoonishly” swollen, stoking my fears — to pick the Tar Heels last season. I picked only one Final Four team (#1-seed UConn) and my winner (Pitt) lost in the Elite Eight to Villanova.

      Still, there is a method to March Madness. First, I pull in Jeff Sagarin’s regular season rankings. I also consider Ken Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive efficiency stats, along with his Pythagorean win percentage.

      Over the last three years, teams with a 3+ point advantage in Sagarin’s “predictor” rating have won 116 of 141 games (82.3%). In 2009, if a team had at least a 65% expected win rate according to Pomeroy’s Pythagorean calculation, they won 33 of 40 games (82.5%). So I won’t stray too far from these two indicators if they both agree that a certain team is going to win.

      But not every game is so clear cut. Over the last three years, if there were 141 games that had a Sagarin favorite of at least three points, that means that there were 48 games that did not. My research has found that a Sagarin advantage of 0-2 points yields a 17-21 record and an advantage of 2-3 points yields a 5-5 record, so if the Sagarin advantage is fewer than three points, the game is basically a toss up.

      For these games, I’ll look at other factors, like location of the game, offensive and defensive efficiencies, matchups, injuries, current play, and how each team fits the Giant Killers profile. In short, if a game is a toss up, it pays to go with the underdog because most people are going to go with the favorite.

      So enough with the preamble, let’s dive right in.

      Continue reading »

      College Basketball, March Madness

      How To Bet Well

      March 15, 2010 /

      With the official kick-off of the basketball season, March Madness fever has really shaken things up, and bets are on about every aspect of the sports, probably including how many times a player uses the loo. Indulge in some good sportsbetting, there’s nothing that spikes up the adrenaline like that. There’s a kind of fervor that you get when your “horse” beats everyone in a close finish that nothing else can give; and the more money that rides on your horse, the better the excitement. So bet all you can, but be a smart bettor. Bet smart of bet silly, betting will always be exciting; but there’s a real world out there that’s gonna be trickier to negotiate if you are not betting with a smart head on your shoulders.

      Smart betting 101 will tell you something you probably didn’t expect – when not to bet. You see, betting is about fifty percent chance and fifty percent science. You can control about half of the betting outcome if you know enough about what you are betting about. So, the first thing to learn is, if you are not absolutely passionate about a sports, don’t bet on it. You simply wouldn’t know enough to qualify as a good bettor.

      Sportsbetting involves some risk, so make sure you know how much risk you can bear. Give yourself a solid figure; this is what you can afford to lose, strictly from a financial point of view. Then bet using about half that amount. What this does is to limit your betting to a manageable amount; even if you go beyond “half the amount,” you still have another limit that you probably wouldn’t cross.

      Finally, know when to quit. Usually, a steady winning streak is the best time to quit. Bet less and less as you win more and more, so that you can quit profitably at the first sign of losing. This is cautious play, but better safe than sorry.

      General Sports

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