Category: NBA (Page 549 of 595)

Wade doesn’t practice

Dwayne Wade is battling a sinus infection and sat out of practice on Tuesday.

Wade attended practice, “but didn’t do anything ultra-live,” Heat coach Pat Riley said. Wade went to team meetings and planned to fly with the Heat to Dallas later Tuesday.

Miami will practice in Dallas on Wednesday, then play Game 1 of the NBA finals there against the Mavericks on Thursday night.

“He’ll be OK,” said Riley, adding that he expects Wade will have a full workout Wednesday.

If Wade works out on Wednesday, he should be 100% for Game 1. If he sits out again, Heat fans can start to get worried.

Offseason Blueprint: New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets

Cap Situation

The Hornets have all kinds of cap room , having only committed to $31.5 M in salary next season. In fact, they have only one contract (Arvydas Macijauskas) that extends further than next year, unless the team decides to exercise its options on three different contracts.

One of those players is Chris Paul, and the team will surely extend his contract, keeping him with the club for three more years at a total cost of $11.6 M. Paul ran away with Rookie of the Year honors, making several teams, namely Atlanta, Portland and Utah – teams that had the opportunity to draft him – want to completely forget about the 2005 draft. His EPM of .590 was 21st in the league and 3rd amongst point guards, an amazing feat for a rookie. His shot to assist ratio (1.6) proves that he is more of a passer than a scorer, though he’s shown the ability to score when needed.

David West really benefited from the presence of Paul. In his third year, West had a breakout season, averaging 17 points and seven rebounds while shooting 51% from the floor. The Hornets should focus on building around Paul and West by finding players that compliment their considerable skills.

The team traded the disgruntled Jamaal Magloire to the Milwaukee Bucks for swingman Desmond Mason and a first round draft pick, which turned out to be the #15 selection. Mason hasn’t worked out as well as expected, providing only 11 points per game on some dismal shooting (40%). He’s in the last year of his contract, and at $8 M, his EPM (.264) just isn’t cutting it. Another $8 M is owed to P.J. Brown in the final year of his contract, and he’s just holding down the middle until the team can find someone better.

With all this cap space, it will be difficult not to pull the trigger on one or more free agents that might help the team get to the playoffs. The team’s locale (is it New Orleans or Oklahoma City?) might scare some free agents off, so the team might find better value if they wait until next summer to land a couple of big free agents.

Offseason Blueprint

The club will need make a decision on Speedy Claxton, who is a free agent this summer. His solid EPM of .424 makes him a very nice backup to Paul, though he’ll probably be able to find a starting gig elsewhere. If they can re-sign him for 4-years/$16-$18 M, it would be a good deal for the franchise.

Rasual Butler, another pending free agent, has a reputation of being a great shooter, but his accuracy (41%) and EPM (.298) don’t support that. The Hornets would be wise not to invest too much money in trying to re-sign him.

The team has needs at shooting guard, small forward and center. The team could make a big offer to Ben Wallace, but his age (32) and price would work against the Hornets’ plans. Nene is another option, but his health is up in the air. If the team is confident that he’ll be healthy next season, he should be a bargain.

A player on the rise is Jared Jeffries, who harassed LeBron James in the playoffs. With Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison getting most of the shots, Jeffries wasn’t asked to do much else, but the 6’11” swingman would be a nice fit with Paul and West. He’s a restricted free agent, so the Hornets could make an offer and hope that the Wizards don’t match it. Al Harrington would be a good fit, but does New Orleans want to meet his asking price? John Salmons (Philadelphia) is another (restricted) free agent swingman that could flourish if given more minutes.

The team has two draft picks, the aforementioned #15 pick along with the #12 pick, giving them the ammunition to move up if there is a player they love. Swingman Rodney Carney, center Patrick O’Bryant and shooting guard J.J. Redick would all make sense at #12 or a bit higher, though there are rumors that there is some bad blood between Redick and Paul from their days in the ACC. Still, Redick would create all sorts of room for Paul and West, while Paul would create all sorts of shots for Redick. Find a defensive-minded swingman and a decent center and you’ve got yourself a solid playoff team in two or three years.

Notes:

NO/Oklahoma City’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Chris Paul 0.590 # 21
David West 0.545 # 40
Chris Andersen 0.438 # 132
Speedy Claxton 0.424 # 146
Aaron Williams 0.412 # 161
Marc Jackson 0.411 # 166
P.J. Brown 0.410 # 167
Kirk Snyder 0.388 # 202
Linton Johnson 0.357 # 254
J.R. Smith 0.341 # 275
Rasual Butler 0.298 # 306
Jackson Vroman 0.266 # 326
Desmond Mason 0.264 # 330

Paul and West are clearly the best of the bunch. Claxton would be worth re-signing but not at more than $4-5 M a year. The rest of the roster needs a makeover.

Offseason Blueprint: Orlando Magic

Cap Situation

With the salaries of Anfernee Hardaway ($15.8 M) and Doug Christie ($8.2 M) coming off the books, the Orlando Magic have committed to a payroll of $51.4 M next season, giving the team precious little cap space this summer. However, Grant Hill’s $16.9 M contract expires next summer, putting the team in a great position for what could be a very good free agent class. Throw in the team’s 16-6 record over the last month and a half of the season, and there is reason for optimism in Orlando.

The team’s best player, Dwight Howard, will be under his rookie contract for two more seasons at the total price of $10.8 M. Considering that – in just his second season – he was the league’s 24th most efficient player (EPM=.578), he is an incredible bargain.

During the same draft, the Magic acquired point guard Jameer Nelson (.508) from the Denver Nuggets for a future first round draft pick. With the mid-season departure of Steve Francis, Nelson really shined, averaging 16 points and six assists after the All-Star break. Before the draft, there were questions about his lack of size (6’0”), but Nelson makes up for it with good quickness and terrific shooting; Nelson shot 48% from the field and 42% from long range last season.

The team also traded for Darko Milicic, who had taken up permanent residence in the Detroit Pistons’ doghouse. After the trade, Milicic wasn’t spectacular, but he did show flashes of the talent that made him the #2 overall pick in 2003 draft (ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade). He averaged eight points, four rebounds and two blocks in just 21 minutes per game for the Magic, resulting in an encouraging EPM of .470. Milicic’s salary of $5.2 M next season allows the team to determine if he’s in their long term plans. He’s got a face up game that compliments Howard’s low post game, so the two could be effective frontcourt running mates for years to come.

Hedo Turkoglu has developed into a nice small forward, averaging 15 points, four rebounds and three assists, resulting in a solid EPM of .444. At 27, he provided veteran leadership for the young Magic, and although he’s a capable starter, he’s probably best suited for sixth man duties.

Offseason Blueprint

Unless the team wants to unload Hill’s expiring contract along with a draft pick for a high-priced player (Paul Pierce would be a good fit, but Boston seems committed to building around him), Orlando’s best bet would be to stand pat this offseason and wait until next summer to make a splash in free agency, when they might be able to convince a superstar to change teams.

The team has the #11 pick and their biggest hole is at shooting guard, where DeShawn Stevenson wasn’t terribly effective (.290) in his 32 minutes per game. NBADraft.net predicts they’ll take Bradley center Patrick O’Bryant. This pick makes sense if the team has already given up on Milicic, but I don’t think that’s the case. JJ Redick and Ronnie Brewer (along with Rodney Carney, if he slips) make more sense. Redick would bring terrific shooting that would open the court up for Howard, while Brewer is a better defender who can slash to create shots for teammates.

The team has already capitalized on the pre-draft bad rap given to a four-year college starter (Nelson) and I think Redick might be another great fit. If they can add Pierce (or another star small forward) next summer, this would be a team to be reckoned with.

Notes:

Orlando’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Dwight Howard 0.578 # 24
Jameer Nelson 0.508 # 64
Grant Hill 0.479 # 93
Darko Milicic 0.470 # 100
Hedo Turkoglu 0.444 # 126
Carlos Arroyo 0.443 # 128
Bo Outlaw 0.411 # 165
Tony Battie 0.391 # 198
Trevor Ariza 0.365 # 244
Keyon Dooling 0.335 # 281
Travis Diener 0.324 # 288
Deshawn Stevenson 0.290 # 309
Pat Garrity 0.279 # 316
Stacey Augmon 0.249 # 337

Howard, Nelson, Milicic and Turkoglu give the team a great young core to build around. Arroyo, who was thrown in the Milicic trade, is a top backup point guard and gives the team some punch coming off the bench.

Daily Dime’s Finals Analysis

On yesterday’s Daily Dime, ESPN analysts Dr. Jack Ramsay and Chris Ramsay each made an argument for a different team to win the NBA Finals. Here’s the best bit from Chris Ramsay about the Heat:

Shaq dominates the middle. The guy is still more powerful than a locomotive and, having dropped 20-or-so pounds, even looks light on his feet. He’s figured out how to avoid offensive fouls on his post moves. He’s making the smart, patient play on the block — posting, passing, reposting, scoring. He’s getting deep position and making a much more upward offensive move to the basket instead of the inward offensive move that was getting him in trouble earlier in the playoffs. On defense, he shuts down the driveway. There will be no easy stuff at the rim for the Mavs.

Coach Pat Riley has really pulled this team together. I’m sure Shaq has had a big influence here, too. But ever since Miami’s meltdown in Game 4 of the Bulls series, the Heat have looked like a very cohesive unit. Since then, they’ve won 10-of-13 games, and Riley has done an excellent job of building team unity. There have been no knucklehead antics, no bickering and no selfishness. The Heat look very professional and focused on winning a championship.

I picked the Mavs in seven, so these two points are worrisome. I know Dwayne Wade is going to play pretty well, but O’Neal’s effectiveness is a bit more up in the air. Will he dominate? Will he be average? Or will he spend the majority of the series on the bench in foul trouble? His overall performance will likely decide the series. His second point is also valid. With the scent of a title so strong, the Heat are playing as a team, something I wasn’t sure could happen when Pat Riley brought Jason Williams, Antoine Walker and Gary Payton to the team. Can they keep it together for another series – one that will be more pressure-packed than the first three combined?

Likewise, Dr. Jack Ramsay made some good points about the advantages that the Mavs hold:

The Mavs’ trademarks are depth and quickness, two traits the Heat lack. The Mavs’ starting lineup is quicker than Miami’s, and they can bring in a number of talented, athletic players off the bench.

For Dallas, it starts with Dirk Nowitzki, who will be a very tough cover for the Heat. Udonis Haslem will probably need help covering Nowitzki, which will open up the court for the rest of Mavericks. As Chicago showed, a quick, penetrating team can get to the rim and create foul trouble for Shaq. Well, the Mavs are even more talented than the Bulls.

Likewise, the Heat have no natural matchup for Dallas’ secondary offensive stars, Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse. And that’s before you get to Devin Harris and Keith Van Horn, who also will be a handful against the larger, slower Heat.

With this kind of team speed, the Mavs at times will threaten to run the Heat right off the floor.

As I said in my preview, if the Mavs are able to consistently get the Heat into an up-and-down game, they’ll ultimately wear the Heat down. That might be the best defense for Shaq – when the big fella gets tired, he’s more foul-prone. The performance of the Mavs’ bench is also crucial. Guys like Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse and Keith Van Horn need to score well in order to counteract the advantage that the Heat has with Wade and O’Neal.

So there you have it – four keys to the series:

1. Shaq’s play inside
2. Miami’s cohesion under pressure
3. Dallas pushing the tempo
4. The Mavs’ bench play

It should be a good one.

Heat/Mavs Preview

The Finals are upon us and we have a star-studded matchup with the Miami Heat squaring off against the Dallas Mavericks. There are lots of subplots to this series – Pat Riley’s controversial offseason acquisitions, Gary Payton’s quest for a ring, Mark Cuban’s courtside antics, pretty much anything Shaq says or does – this matchup has it all. Here’s my breakdown position by position:

GUARDS

Marquee Matchup: Dwayne Wade vs. Jason Terry

I don’t think we’ll actually see Terry cover Wade much in the series, but Terry’s offense will be crucial in offsetting Wade’s game. Terry has been up and down in the playoffs (17.8 ppg on 43% shooting) and the Mavs will need him to be more consistent in order to keep Wade working defensively. And the Mavs need his points to take the pressure off of Dirk Nowitzki offensively.

Dwayne Wade has been phenomenal in the playoffs, averaging 26.2 points, 6.4 assists and 5.2 rebounds per contest. His 51% shooting (62% against the Pistons) makes it critical that Dallas do everything to try to limit him. If the Mavs are able to keep him in the low 20s and force him into five or more turnovers a game, it will greatly increase their chances of victory. They will throw any number of players at him defensively (Josh Howard, Adrian Griffin, Marquis Daniels, Devin Harris, Terry and even Jerry Stackhouse) and hope than one or more of them stick.

Advantage: Heat

Wildcard Matchup: Gary Payton vs. Devin Harris

Nick Van Exel was unable to handle Devin Harris’ speed and Gary Payton is going to be in the same boat. Harris has been inconsistent in these playoffs, averaging 19.3 points in a four-game stretch against the Spurs, but only managed an average of 9.4 points in the next eight games. Harris is going to need to penetrate when he’s being covered by Payton or Jason Williams because neither player has the speed to hold him.

Meanwhile, Payton brings loads of experience to this series, but it is a far cry from the player he once was. He’s not a particularly good shooter and he doesn’t get an opportunity to post up, where he was so effective for so many years. Pat Riley would be smart to take advantage when Harris is guarding Payton by allowing him to post the inexperienced guard up. This would offset some of the problems Harris is going to present defensively for the Heat.

Advantage: Mavs

FORWARDS

Marquee Matchup: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Udonis Haslem

I know, Antoine Walker is the bigger name, but I don’t foresee Riley putting the defensively-challenged Walker anywhere near Nowitzki. The big German has averaged 28.4 points and 11.9 rebounds per game and is shooting over 49% in these playoffs. Along with Haslem, who might have some problems with Dirk’s quickness, the Heat will probably use their best defender, James Posey, on Nowitzki, hoping to recreate some of the struggles that Nowitzki had with Tracy McGrady in last year’s playoffs. It will be up to Haslem and Posey to try to limit Nowitzki as much as possible.

Advantage: Mavs

Wildcard Matchup: Josh Howard vs. Antoine Walker

Josh Howard is quickly becoming one of the best young small forwards in the game. In 17 playoff games, he’s averaging 17.4 points and 7.2 rebounds per contest. He’s also shooting at a 48% clip making he and Nowitzki one of the most potent forward combos in the league. The Mavs would like to use Howard on Wade, but they need someone to cover Walker, who has averaged 13.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs, giving the Heat

Advantage: Mavs

CENTERS

Marquee Matchup: Shaquille O’Neal vs. DaSagana Diop/Erick Dampier

Shaq has been strong of late, averaging 20.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest. His conditioning will be tested by the tempo of the Mavs, who will look to push the ball at every opportunity. Diop and Dampier will try to limit O’Neal in the post, but they are going to have their hands full with the Diesel. Don’t expect either guy to do much offensively.

Advantage: Heat

Wildcard Matchup: Alonzo Mourning vs. ???

Don’t be surprised to see Avery Johnson play small ball when O’Neal leaves the game, matching Nowitzki up with Mourning. This move should favor Dallas as Mourning doesn’t have the speed to hang with the Mavs on the break. If Johnson chooses to use Diop or Dampier in such situations, Mourning would hold the advantage.

Advantage: ???

COACHING

Avery Johnson vs. Pat Riley

Avery Johnson has done a terrific job since he took over the Mavs, winning Coach of the Year honors in his first full year. He has brought a feistiness to this team that was sorely lacking in the Don Nelson era. He has proven he can make adjustments to help his team win and he has NBA Finals experience from his days with the Spurs. The only knock on the guy is his lack of coaching experience.

Pat Riley is under more pressure than Avery Johnson. Riley made a number of controversial offseason moves when he brought Antoine Walker, Jason Williams and Gary Payton to the team, but so far, he looks like a genius. Though you won’t hear him crow about it until this team wins a ring. Speaking of rings, Riley has four as a head coach, so he is quite familiar with the pressure that comes with the NBA Finals.

Advantage: Heat

PREDICTION

I think this is a very evenly matched series and on a neutral court, I’d give the Heat a slight advantage. The Mavs will try to speed the game up while the Heat will try to slow things down and use Shaq inside. Whichever team does a better job of playing their game will win the series. Considering Dallas will get four games at home, I have to give them the edge – but it’s razor thin.

My pick: Mavs in seven

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