Cap Situation

With the salaries of Anfernee Hardaway ($15.8 M) and Doug Christie ($8.2 M) coming off the books, the Orlando Magic have committed to a payroll of $51.4 M next season, giving the team precious little cap space this summer. However, Grant Hill’s $16.9 M contract expires next summer, putting the team in a great position for what could be a very good free agent class. Throw in the team’s 16-6 record over the last month and a half of the season, and there is reason for optimism in Orlando.

The team’s best player, Dwight Howard, will be under his rookie contract for two more seasons at the total price of $10.8 M. Considering that – in just his second season – he was the league’s 24th most efficient player (EPM=.578), he is an incredible bargain.

During the same draft, the Magic acquired point guard Jameer Nelson (.508) from the Denver Nuggets for a future first round draft pick. With the mid-season departure of Steve Francis, Nelson really shined, averaging 16 points and six assists after the All-Star break. Before the draft, there were questions about his lack of size (6’0”), but Nelson makes up for it with good quickness and terrific shooting; Nelson shot 48% from the field and 42% from long range last season.

The team also traded for Darko Milicic, who had taken up permanent residence in the Detroit Pistons’ doghouse. After the trade, Milicic wasn’t spectacular, but he did show flashes of the talent that made him the #2 overall pick in 2003 draft (ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade). He averaged eight points, four rebounds and two blocks in just 21 minutes per game for the Magic, resulting in an encouraging EPM of .470. Milicic’s salary of $5.2 M next season allows the team to determine if he’s in their long term plans. He’s got a face up game that compliments Howard’s low post game, so the two could be effective frontcourt running mates for years to come.

Hedo Turkoglu has developed into a nice small forward, averaging 15 points, four rebounds and three assists, resulting in a solid EPM of .444. At 27, he provided veteran leadership for the young Magic, and although he’s a capable starter, he’s probably best suited for sixth man duties.

Offseason Blueprint

Unless the team wants to unload Hill’s expiring contract along with a draft pick for a high-priced player (Paul Pierce would be a good fit, but Boston seems committed to building around him), Orlando’s best bet would be to stand pat this offseason and wait until next summer to make a splash in free agency, when they might be able to convince a superstar to change teams.

The team has the #11 pick and their biggest hole is at shooting guard, where DeShawn Stevenson wasn’t terribly effective (.290) in his 32 minutes per game. NBADraft.net predicts they’ll take Bradley center Patrick O’Bryant. This pick makes sense if the team has already given up on Milicic, but I don’t think that’s the case. JJ Redick and Ronnie Brewer (along with Rodney Carney, if he slips) make more sense. Redick would bring terrific shooting that would open the court up for Howard, while Brewer is a better defender who can slash to create shots for teammates.

The team has already capitalized on the pre-draft bad rap given to a four-year college starter (Nelson) and I think Redick might be another great fit. If they can add Pierce (or another star small forward) next summer, this would be a team to be reckoned with.

Notes:

Orlando’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Dwight Howard 0.578 # 24
Jameer Nelson 0.508 # 64
Grant Hill 0.479 # 93
Darko Milicic 0.470 # 100
Hedo Turkoglu 0.444 # 126
Carlos Arroyo 0.443 # 128
Bo Outlaw 0.411 # 165
Tony Battie 0.391 # 198
Trevor Ariza 0.365 # 244
Keyon Dooling 0.335 # 281
Travis Diener 0.324 # 288
Deshawn Stevenson 0.290 # 309
Pat Garrity 0.279 # 316
Stacey Augmon 0.249 # 337

Howard, Nelson, Milicic and Turkoglu give the team a great young core to build around. Arroyo, who was thrown in the Milicic trade, is a top backup point guard and gives the team some punch coming off the bench.