Most people know that Stephen A. Smith is more about style than substance, typically barking at people with opposing views until he gets his way. This montage of clips of Smith talking about the Portland Trailblazers is a great example of how sometimes, he just doesn’t have any idea what he’s talking about.
See more funny Stephen A. Smith videos here.
In Part 1, we looked at the members of the draft class of 2004. Those players are restricted free agents this summer because last summer they failed to agree on an extension with their team. In Part 2, we’ll look at members of the draft class of 2005, who have the option to sign long-term deals with their current teams. Typically, this means that they are looking at less money than they could sign for as a restricted or unrestricted free agent, but they have the peace of mind of all that guaranteed money (in case of injury) and knowing where they’ll be playing for the next five or six years.
Two players from the draft class of ’05 – Chris Paul and Deron Williams – are widely considered to be no-brainer max extension players. In fact, Paul has already extended for four years and $68 M, and Williams’ camp is currently negotiating with the Jazz. It would be a coup if Utah could convince their young point guard to take a bit less money to allow for the team to have salary cap flexibility in the future.
So let’s take a look at the other big-name players from the class of ’05 and try to gauge their total value. Remember, this includes performance (John Hollinger’s PER), age, potential, and the salaries of comparable players.
Andrew Bogut, C, Milwaukee Bucks
Age: 23
PER: 17.55
Comparables: Chris Kaman ($10.9 M), Tyson Chandler ($11.4 M), Brad Miller ($11.8 M)
The market for skilled seven-footers is always strong, but the league is getting smaller and quicker, so there might be a little bit of a disconnect between what the Bucks think Bogut is worth and what Bogut and his agent think he’s worth. Luckily, in Kaman, Chandler and Miller, the two parties have three very good comparables. Complicating matters is Bogut’s strong performance after the All-Star break (16.3 points and 11.6 rebounds per game) and his improved play on defense (1.7 blocks). Bogut is a legitimate post threat and is a terrific passer for his size, though he has had trouble scoring on athletic defensive centers like Chandler, Dwight Howard, Marcus Camby and Samuel Dalembert. Small market teams tend to have to overspend to keep their stars, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bucks do so here. His upside seems limited, but he’s a safe investment as a #2 offensive option.
Value: $12.0 M – $12.5 M per year
Marvin Williams, F, Atlanta Hawks
Age: 22
PER: 14.53
Comparables: Tayshaun Prince ($10.3 M), Andres Nocioni ($7.6 M), Al Harrington ($9.6 M), Nick Collison ($6.4 M), Drew Gooden ($7.1 M)
Williams was the #2 pick in the ’05 draft and at 22, he still has a lot of upside. He can play either forward position, but his jumper is limited. (He was 1-10 from long range last season.) It’s doubtful that the Hawks will work out an extension this summer as both parties will want to see how much Williams improves before committing to a long-term contract. Still, if he wanted the long-term security, a deal in the Nocioni/Collison/Gooden range would be a nice deal for both sides.
Value: $7.5 M – $8.5 M per year
Raymond Felton, PG, Charlotte Bobcats
Age: 24
PER: 13.85
Comparables: Derek Fisher ($4.9 M), Jameer Nelson ($6.7 M), Beno Udrih ($6.0 M)
Given the Bobcats’ decision to draft D.J. Augustin, Felton’s future is up in the air. It’s safe to say that he hasn’t gotten it done in his three years, so it’s highly doubtful that the Bobcats are going to extend him this summer.
Value: $5.0 M – $5.5 M per year
Charlie Villanueva, F, Milwaukee Bucks
Age: 23
PER: 14.99
Comparables: Nick Collison ($6.4 M), Al Harrington ($9.6 M), Andres Nocioni ($7.6 M), Drew Gooden ($7.1 M)
It’s no secret that the Bucks are shopping Villanueva, as his laid-back style is likely to clash with new head coach Scott Skiles. So Milwaukee won’t extend him but if he’s moved, his new team might. He averaged 14.9 points and 8.0 rebounds in 31 games as a starter so there is talent there.
Value: $6.5 M – $7.5 M per year
Andrew Bynum, C, Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 20
PER: 22.60
Comparables: Al Jefferson ($13.0 M), Dwight Howard ($15.8 M), Chris Kaman ($10.9 M), Yao Ming ($16.4 M)
What’s Bynum worth? It’s tough to gauge considering he’s recovering from a knee injury. His camp has made it clear that they want a max deal, and there’s no reason for the Lakers to give him that kind of contract when there’s no downside to waiting to see if his knee is fully recovered. With the knee in question, his value is depressed, so it is unlikely that the two parties will come to an agreement unless Bynum chooses security over a bigger payday in the future.
Value: $12.0 M – $13.0 M per year
Danny Granger, SF, Indiana Pacers
Age: 25
PER: 16.76
Comparables: Josh Howard ($10.9 M), Ron Artest ($8.5 M), Hedo Turkoglu ($6.9 M), Gerald Wallace ($9.5 M), Richard Jefferson ($14.1 M)
Granger is old for his class, so it is more likely that he’s closer to topping out than some of the other guys on this list. That said, he put up very nice numbers on a mediocre team, so it will be interesting to see what kind of contract he ends up with. I see him as a Howard/Jefferson-type player, and I think RJ is a little overpaid, so Granger’s value falls somewhere in between.
Value: $11.0 M – $12.0 M per year
Hakim Warrick, F, Memphis Grizzlies
Age: 25
PER: 16.28
Comparables: Chris Wilcox ($6.8 M), Lamar Odom ($14.6 M), Nick Collison ($6.4 M), Al Harrington ($9.6 M)
Warrick is also old for his class so he has less upside than some other players on this list. He also played limited minutes (23.4) this season, so there’s no guarantee that his production would continue with more playing time. He seems to be kind of on the outs with the Grizzlies right now, so it’s unlikely that an extension is coming this summer.
Value: $7.0 M – $7.5 M per year
Nate Robinson, G, New York Knicks
Age: 24
PER: 15.38
Comparables: Jameer Nelson ($6.7 M), Beno Udrih ($6.0 M)
Robinson is a point guard that doesn’t pass the ball very well, so is unclear if he’s going to fit in Mike D’Antoni’s system. It’s unlikely that the Knicks will extend him this offseason, though he’s one of their better assets.
Value: $6.5 M – $7.0 M per year
Linas Kleiza, F, Denver Nuggets
Age: 23
PER: 14.43
Comparables: Tayshaun Prince ($10.3 M), Andres Nocioni ($7.6 M), Al Harrington ($9.6 M), Nick Collison ($6.4 M), Drew Gooden ($7.1 M)
Kleiza is a gifted scorer and he rebounds pretty well. He plays the same position as Carmelo Anthony, so it’s unclear if the Nuggets are going to commit to him in the long term. His name comes up a lot in trade talk, and he has value around the league. He reminds me of the second coming of Andres Nocioni and his value is in the same ballpark.
Value: $6.5 M – $7.5 M per year
David Lee, F, New York Knicks
Age: 25
PER: 18.01
Comparables: Shane Battier ($6.9 M), Chris Wilcox ($6.8 M), Lamar Odom ($14.6 M)
Lee is a double-double guy that gets most of his numbers by doing the little things. He is highly coveted around the league and his name comes up all the time in trade rumors involving the Knicks. Since he’s a “glue-guy,” I think his best comparable is Battier, and Lee’s value is in that range (though he is more productive).
Value: $7.5 M – $8.5 M per year
Monta Ellis, G, Golden State Warriors
Age: 22
PER: 19.01
Comparables: Kevin Martin ($11.1 M), Michael Redd ($17.1 M), Jason Richardson ($13.3 M)
Since he was a second round pick, he’s a 2005 draftee who is a restricted free agent this summer. Like Josh Smith, Ellis is a young player who has already managed to crack the top 40 in league PER. Hollinger’s numbers are adjusted for the Warriors’ frenetic pace, so Ellis is the real deal. At just 6’3”, the only knock on him is his height, as he’s quite short for a shooting guard. He has the potential to play some point guard, but thus far he’s been more of a finisher than a distributor. What’s truly amazing about Ellis is his FG% (53.1%) considering he doesn’t shoot a very good percentage from long range (23.1%). He is better (and three years younger) than Ben Gordon and deserves a slightly better deal, though the fact that he was a second round pick is bound to have some GMs asking, “Is this kid for real?”
Value: $10.5 M – $11.5 M per year
You know you’ve made a fair deal when both parties think they got screwed.
It’s that time of year again. Restricted free agents from the class of 2004 (Emeka Okafor, Luol Deng, Josh Smith, etc.) are being wooed by teams that are hoping to make them an offer that their current team won’t match. Likewise, players from the class of 2005 (Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Andrew Bogut, etc.) can negotiate extensions with their respective teams that will keep them off the free agent market for the foreseeable future.
These negotiations are a battle of will and expectations. The player’s job (via his agent) is usually to squeeze as much money out of the team as he can. The team’s job is to sign the player to a contract that is a good value for the team. Naturally, the player’s camp brings up all the positives about the player while the franchise has to balance this with the player’s negatives to try to convince the agent (or the player) that they aren’t worth what they’re asking. Teams that repeatedly bow to players’ demands are sure to find themselves in salary cap hell before too long.
So in an effort to predict a market value for these players, I am going to take a look at their total value – performance (John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating), age and potential – and try to come up with a yearly salary that fits with what other players of their caliber are making. I’ll list comparable players and their average salaries over the spans of their current contracts.
Let’s start with the class of 2004. These players are free to sign offer sheets from other teams, but their current team can (and usally do) match those offers. These are players that unsuccessfully negotiated extensions last summer, and since many NBA teams are reluctant to extend an offer to a restricted free agent, most of these players are likely to play out the final year of their rookie contract and become unrestricted free agents next summer.
Dwight Howard, Devin Harris, Al Jefferson and Kevin Martin took care of their extensions last year, while Beno Udrih just recently re-signed with the Kings. Here are the other big names, in their original draft order…
2004 DRAFTEES
Emeka Okafor, FC, Charlotte Bobcats
Age: 25
PER: 17.46
Comparables: Rasheed Wallace ($13.7 M), Zach Randolph ($16.0 M), Rashard Lewis ($20.5 M), Chris Wilcox ($6.8 M), Lamar Odom ($14.6 M), Chris Kaman ($10.9 M), Tyson Chandler ($11.4 M)
Okafor’s value is kind of tough to pin down. He’s more of a center-type, but he and the Bobcats want to play him at power forward. His comparables are all over the board, but the two guys who most resemble his game (and don’t have outrageous contracts) are Kaman and Chandler. Like those guys, Okafor is a double-double guy with decent (but not great) offensive skills. Okafor turned down a five-year, $60 million contract last summer, but that’s right in line with his value.
Value: $12.0 M – $12.5 M per year
Ben Gordon, SG, Chicago Bulls
Age: 25
PER: 16.52
Comparables: Richard Hamilton ($11.0 M), Mike Dunleavy ($9.8 M), Joe Johnson ($14.6 M), Mike Miller ($9.4 M), Jamal Crawford ($9.4 M), Leandro Barbosa ($6.6 M)
Last summer, Gordon turned down an extension worth $50 million over five years, which was a fair offer from the Bulls. At 6’3”, Gordon is small for a shooting guard, so he has trouble covering bigger off guards on the defensive end. He’s a terrific scorer, however. Of these comparables, I’d only rather have Hamilton, Johnson and maybe Miller, so I’d say that Gordon’s value is a bit more than what the Bulls offered him last summer.
Value: $10.5 M – $11.0 M per year
Josh Childress, SF, Atlanta Hawks
Age: 25
PER: 17.84
Comparables: Josh Howard ($10.9 M), Ron Artest ($8.5 M), Hedo Turkoglu ($6.9 M), Gerald Wallace ($9.5 M)
Childress continues to fly under the radar for three main reasons: 1) he plays with Josh Smith, 2) he comes off the bench and 3) he’s a jack of all trades and a master of none. His value is depressed because he doesn’t play as many minutes as his comparables, but at 30 minutes per game, he’s only averaging 5-8 fewer minutes that the rest of these guys. Given all the facts, it is unlikely that he’ll sign for his true value, so some lucky team is going to get a nice deal at some point in the next 12 months.
Value: $8.5 M – $9.5 M per year
Luol Deng, SF, Chicago Bulls
Age: 23
PER: 17.07
Comparables: Josh Howard ($10.9 M), Ron Artest ($8.5 M), Hedo Turkoglu ($6.9 M), Gerald Wallace ($9.5 M), Richard Jefferson ($14.1 M)
Like Gordon, Deng turned down a five-year extension worth $50 million, so it’s clear that his camp feels that he has more value than all of his comparables save Jefferson. Deng is a scorer, so his profile is subsequently higher than a guy like Josh Childress. With his name coming up in all the Kobe trade talk, he had a disappointing season, so the perception is he’ll bounce back (though I’d argue that he showed a lack of mental toughness by not playing through that). Plus, at 23, he’s younger than most of the guys on this list, so there is still a lot of upside in his game.
Value: $11.0 M – $12.0 M per year
Andre Iguodala, SF, Philadelphia 76ers
Age: 24
PER: 19.05
Comparables: Paul Pierce ($19.8 M), Josh Howard ($10.9 M), Ron Artest ($8.5 M), Hedo Turkoglu ($6.9 M), Gerald Wallace ($9.5 M), Richard Jefferson ($14.1 M)
Iggy stuffs the stat sheet for a mediocre team, so the Sixers are probably wise to let him test the market a bit. Popular opinion is that he’s not going to be a talent on the same level as Paul Pierce or Kobe Bryant, so a max deal should be out of the question. The Bucks went through something similar with Michael Redd a few years back… just because a guy is the best player on his team doesn’t make him a franchise (or a max) player. Iggy turned down a $57 M extension, so it’s clear that he has a lot of confidence in himself.
Value: $12.0 M – $13.0 M per year
Andris Biedrins, C, Golden State Warriors
Age: 22
PER: 19.18
Comparables: Chris Kaman ($10.9 M), Tyson Chandler ($11.4 M)
Biedrins’ value is another tough one to pin down. The Warriors play at a very high pace so his numbers (10.5 points, 9.8 rebounds) are a little inflated. He’s not a guy you can give the ball to on the block and expect him to score. He’s more like Chandler in that he’s going to get his points off put backs, which is why his FG% (63%) is so high. He’s young for his class, which adds to his upside, but one wonders if he’ll ever develop a low post game. I’d rather have Kaman or Chandler, and I don’t know where else Biedrins averages a double-double, so I don’t think he deserves a deal averaging more than $10 M per season.
Value: $8.0 M – $9.0 M per year (buyer beware)
Josh Smith, F, Atlanta Hawks
Age: 22
PER: 19.08
Comparables: David West ($9.1 M), Antawn Jamison ($12.5 M), Zach Randolph ($16.0 M)
Teams are drooling over Smoov’s potential, and they should be. He’s just 22 and is already in the top 40 in PER. For their part, the Hawks have said they will match any offer, but Atlanta’s fractured ownership has a few teams wondering if the Hawks would balk at a max (or a near-max) contract. Is he worth it? I don’t think it’s a no-brainer. His accuracy from long-range and from the charity stripe hasn’t improved over the last three seasons and his FG% (46%) isn’t great for a guy who gets so many dunks. The Hawks offered him $45 million last summer and he (wisely) turned it down. Barring injury, he’s going to get much more either this season or next.
Value: $13.0 M – $14.0 M per year
J.R. Smith, SG, Denver Nuggets
Age: 22
PER: 18.15
Comparables: Richard Hamilton ($11.0 M), Mike Dunleavy ($9.8 M), Joe Johnson ($14.6 M), Mike Miller ($9.4 M), Jamal Crawford ($9.4 M), Leandro Barbosa ($6.6 M)
Smith’s situation is similar to Gordon’s, only he’s three years younger, three inches taller and has a reputation for clashing with coaches and getting in trouble off the court. He has all the offensive ability to be a great off guard in the NBA, but his commitment to defense has been questioned and this, coupled with his bad rep, severely depresses his value around the league.
Value: $6.5 M – $7.5 M per year (buyer beware)
Delonte West, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers
Age: 24
PER: 12.13
Comparables: Leandro Barbosa ($6.6 M), Beno Udrih ($6.0 M), Jameer Nelson ($6.7 M)
Looking at these comparables, it seems like it would be easy to gauge West’s value. The only problem is that, for the season, West didn’t play as well as Nelson or Barbosa, and I think the Kings overspent on Udrih. West had a PER of 15.11 in his second season with the Celtics and showed similar flashes once he showed up in Cleveland. He’s an injury risk, but I think the Cavs would be wise to lock him up to a less than mid-level deal.
Value: $4.0 M – $5.0 M per year
Sasha Vujacic, SG, Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 24
PER: 15.06
Comparables: Leandro Barbosa ($6.6 M), Anthony Parker ($4.6 M), John Salmons ($5.5 M)
The main thing that Vujacic brings is shooting (44% from long range). He is bad off the dribble and can’t do much else offensively. Defensively, he brings a lot of energy, but as Ray Allen proved in the Finals, Sasha doesn’t make great decisions when fighting through screens. The Lakers should be careful here as they are probably bidding against themselves, and history has proven that they don’t do a very good job when they’re in that situatoin. (Exhibit A: Luke Walton’s six-year, $30 million deal.)
Value: $3.0 M – $3.5 M per year
Elton Brand is dominating the NBA landscape right now, so if you’re interested in reading another take on how we got to this point, check out this post over at Clips Nation. It ponders the big question – how did Baron Davis and Elton Brand both know to opt out?
I’m not sure why, but I was watching ESPN’s “First Take” this morning and the subject of Elton Brand came up. Scoop Jackson and Skip Bayless debated what Brand should do now that he has two offers on the table, one from the Clippers and one from the Warriors.
Jackson said – and I’m paraphrasing here – that since the Warriors made Brand a max offer that it is “honorable” to consider it and go and talk to them about it because this might not be the last contract that Brand will sign and he might need the Warriors down the road. He went on to say that if the Clippers match the Warriors offer (which they can’t) then all bets are off.
What?
I don’t find myself agreeing with Bayless too often, but he was (as usual) acting incredulous that Jackson could call such actions “honorable” since it was Brand who told the Clippers to go after Baron Davis when he opted out and even said that Brand recruited Davis to come to L.A. to play with him.
The honorable thing to do is to forsake the extra $20 million and re-up with the Clippers.
Bayless knows this, I know this and I suspect even Jackson knows this. This was probably part of the manufactured conflict that is so prevalent on ESPN these days. It’s not enough to just discuss issues intelligently; there has to be an argument because that’s (apparently) what gets ratings.
What a sad world we live in that Jackson has to say something so stupid just to get people to watch.
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