This year, I’m going to preview the NBA season by starting with the lowest of the low and working my way up to my Finals picks. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff also-ran, I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason.
#5: Orlando Magic
Doesn’t it seem like the mojo that the Magic had a couple of seasons ago is long gone? The Vince Carter trade backfired and the supporting pieces don’t seem to fit as well as they used to. Rashard Lewis is coming off his worst season in a decade, and the team didn’t do much of anything to improve in an offseason where the rest of the East got a lot better. That said, there’s still a lot of talent in Orlando and they’ll compete each and every night, assuming the players don’t start to tune Stan Van Gundy out. But unless Dwight Howard suddenly finds a go-to post move, I don’t see the Magic getting out of the East when they have to get by the Heat, Celtics and Bulls. Cap-wise, Orlando’s payroll is bloated ($94 million) and there’s no relief in sight until the Summer of 2013, when Lewis finally comes off the books. More and more, the Magic are starting to resemble the Dallas Mavericks. A huge payroll can buy lots of talent, but it can’t buy a championship.
#4: Oklahoma City Thunder
I hesitate putting the young Thunder this high, but OKC took the Lakers to seven games last spring and Kevin Durant’s performance at this summer’s FIBA World Championships indicates that he’s hasn’t yet reached his ceiling. Throw in and improving Russell Westbrook and the fact that the West is going to be a bit down with the loss of Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer (and potentially Carmelo Anthony), and the Thunder could very well finish the season with the second-best record in the conference. They could just as easily finish #7 or #8, which goes to show how much parity there is in the conference. Barring a banged up Kobe or Pau Gasol, I don’t see the Thunder getting past the Lakers (or the Heat or Celtics, for that matter), but they are more than capable of making a deep run if all goes well. OKC also has one of the best payroll situations in the league, and are projected to have about $24 million in cap space next summer. On the whole, the future looks very bright for Durant and Co.
It’s tough to handicap Denver’s chances this season given the uncertainty surrounding Carmelo Anthony’s future with the franchise. There’s very little doubt in my mind that if the Nuggets hold onto Melo for the entire season, he’s going to sign elsewhere next summer. Will they risk losing him for no compensation after watching Chris Bosh bolt Toronto last summer? It seems doubtful, though it’s going to be very difficult to justify trading Anthony away in the middle of the season if the team is playing well and looks to be amongst the West’s elite. The truth is that the Raptors did get something out of Bosh’s departure. People forget, but Toronto and Cleveland actually worked out sign-and-trades with the Heat and each garnered a couple of first round picks (and a trade exception) out of their respective deals. The Nuggets could wait and (probably) do the same thing, but they’ll get better value if they trade Anthony before the deadline. With one foot out the door, the Nuggets are going to be answering questions all season about the status of their superstar and it’s going to be a distraction. There’s no way around it. With a pretty good roster, the Nuggets will be good, but they’re not good enough to overcome all the drama. If Denver moves Anthony and eventually trades Chauncey Billups as well, they’ll be in great shape financially, building around Ty Lawson and whatever young players (Derrick Favors?) they can acquire for their two stars. But make no mistake — this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
For the first time in six seasons, the Jazz head into the season without the potent duo of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. Williams is basically the franchise cornerstone and is still there, but Boozer is long gone. So the Jazz are going to take a step back, right? Not necessarily. They have one of the best backup power forwards in the league (Paul Millsap) ready to take Boozer’s place and they stole Al Jefferson from the T-Wolves, so the front line will be fine assuming Mehmet Okur’s recovery from an injury to his Achilles. Of greater concern is the wing, where the losses of Kyle Korver and Wes Matthews will hurt if C.J. Miles, Raja Bell and Gordon Hayward are not up to the task. Head coach Jerry Sloan will have his team competing and it’s rare that the Jazz are ever out-executed on any given night. Another 50+ win season looks likely.
The Knicks missed out on LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh this summer, but they did land Amare Stoudemire, and also acquired Raymond Felton to run the point. David Lee is gone, but New York did get a good young player in Anthony Randolph to take his place. In other words, this Knicks team is going to look a lot different than last year’s club, and probably for the better. Newcomers Ronny Turiaf, Kelenna Azubuike, Roger Mason, (promising) Russian center Timofey Mozgov along with Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas will round out Mike D’Antoni’s rotation. Cap-wise, the Knicks are still in good shape. Eddy Curry’s $11 M expiring deal can be used as trade bait or the franchise can just let it come off the books, creating around $18 million in cap space next summer, which they could use to sign Carmelo Anthony if he hits free agency. The only big contract on the payroll is Stoudemire’s deal, and the Knicks really need him to stay healthy in order to get their money’s worth. This looks like a franchise on the rise, but they need to land one more star to threaten the upper echelon of the East.
