Category: Fantasy Football (Page 64 of 324)

2010 Fantasy Football Preview: The Perfect Draft

OAKLAND, CA - JANUARY 03: Zach Miller #80 of the Oakland Raiders catches a touchdown pass in the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens during an NFL game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on January 3, 2010 in Oakland, California.  (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve outlined my strategy for the upcoming fantasy football season in the various segments of the 2010 Fantasy Football Preview. In this post, I’ll attempt to pull them all together to provide a (somewhat) coherent strategy that you can, if you so choose, use on draft day.

Below is an overview of the various components. Note: I’m assuming this is a 12-team, TE-required PPR league.

1. Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)
This year, I am recommending that fantasy owners draft Eli Manning in the 7th round and Ben Roethlisberger in the 9th (since it looks like Roger Goodell is going to shorten his suspension to four games and in effect, raise Ben’s fantasy stock). I’m going with 7th/9th because it looks like Eli’s ADP is creeping up as the fantasy preseason wears on. If Eli goes before your pick in the 7th, then go with Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or Carson Palmer, in that order. Their schedules all mesh well with Big Ben’s.

2. Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC)
I’m targeting the Chargers in the 14th, and then using my next pick on the Patriots, Dolphins, Colts or Bears, in that order. If you miss out on the Chargers, there are various other options outlined in the DTBC piece.

3. Draft Zach Miller in the 8th round.
Here’s what I wrote about Miller in our TE preview:

Jason Campbell is in as the starter in Oakland, which means that for the first time, Miller will have a capable QB throwing the ball. Campbell loved throwing it to Chris Cooley in Washington, so Miller projects to have a nice year. He caught 37 passes over his final six games and with a solid QB under center, he should be able to build off of that success.

Of course, if Tony Gonzalez or Brent Celek somehow slip into the 8th, I’d take either over Miller, but barring that, Miller is my man in the 8th.

The rest is fill in the blanks and it largely depends on your draft position and who you like in each round. I put together the table below as an outline. Along the top you’ll see different picks (1-4, 5, 6-7, 8-12) which represents all the picks in the first round. (Note: You can see a bigger version of the table by clicking on it.)

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Will TJ start over Jamaal Charles?

CINCINNATI - DECEMBER 27: Jamaal Charles #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs breaks free from Leon Hall #29 of the Cincinnati Bengals in their NFL game at Paul Brown Stadium December 27, 2009 in Cincinnati, Ohio.    (Photo by John Sommers II/Getty Images)

Those fantasy owners thinking about drafting Jamaal Charles in the second round should take note: The Chiefs released their first depth chart of the preseason and Thomas Jones is listed ahead of Charles.

I just spoke with Anthony Stalter and he said that owners shouldn’t read too much into this. I tend to agree, but this is a 2nd round pick we’re talking about. It’s too early to draft a guy that isn’t even listed first on his team’s depth chart. I still like Charles this year, but even if he gets 50% of the touches, it’s still not going to be enough to justify a second round pick over more defined backfields like Green Bay (Ryan Grant), San Diego (Ryan Matthews) or New Orleans (Pierre Thomas) — teams that are much better offensively and feature better-defined roles.

Charles is still worth a pick in the 3rd or the 4th and could move back into the 2nd if the reports out of camp indicate that he’ll get 60% of the carries. Right now, it looks like a timeshare. Ugh.

This quite perplexing considering Charles’ age (23) and performance down the stretch last season. He averaged 141 total yards and 1.0 TD per game over the last eight games. His is a situation to keep an eye on.

Is Bradshaw passing Jacobs on the depth chart?

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - DECEMBER 06:  Brandon Jacobs #27 and Ahmad Bradshaw #44 of the New York Giants celebrate after Jacobs scored a 74 yard touchdown reception in the third quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Giants Stadium on December 6, 2009 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Giants beat writer Mike Garafolo of the The Star-Ledger seems to think so

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (yes, I put him in the starter category because he’s taking all of the first reps with the starters, it seems) continues to look like his rookie self. He went off left edge and moved well, changing direction a few times. RB Brandon Jacobs looked pretty good tonight as well.

Here are the stats from last season:

Jacobs – 224 rushes, 835 yards, 5 TD; 18-184-1
Bradshaw – 163 rushes, 778 yards, 7 TD; 21-201-0

Bradshaw averaged more than a yard more per carry and only finished 40 yards behind Jacobs in total yards despite 58 fewer touches.

How you feel about this situation depends on how you feel about Jacobs’ knees. If he’s healthy, he’ll almost certainly get enough first and second down work and goal line carries to keep Bradshaw from being a bona fide fantasy RB2.

But here we are, about a month away from the season and Bradshaw appears to be pressing Jacobs for the starting job. This could be a coaching ploy to motivate Jacbos (whom Garafolo also said looked good), it could be a way to reduce Jacobs’ workload in the preseason since he’s coming off of knee surgery, or it could be an actual change to the Giants depth chart. For what it’s worth, Tom Coughlin says that the press is “too hung up on that stuff.” (Spoken like a man who doesn’t have a fantasy football draft to prepare for.)

Considering Jacobs is going a full two rounds earlier than Bradshaw (who is a nice value in the 9th), the latter would appear to be a better value given his upside. Regardless, fantasy owners who draft Jacobs in the 6th or the 7th should definitely grab Bradshaw in the 8th as insurance.

Is Drew Brees the new face of the NFL?

LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 14: NFL quarterback Drew Brees speaks onstage after winning the ESPY for Best Male Athlete during the 2010 ESPY Awards at Nokia Theatre L.A. Live on July 14, 2010 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)

The Legend of Cecilio Guante (to find out who Cecilio Guante is, click here) argues that Drew Brees is the face of the NFL.

It probably hit many fans long before I’ve come to the realization — or should I say the strong opinion. There is no real way to assert that someone is or is not the face of the NFL. Such a thing is inherently not a fact-based proposition. But it occured to me today that despite the omnipotence of Manning, the allure (no matter the counter current of hatred) that surrounds The Gunslingerm, and the magnetism of young players like Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, there is only man who has emerged as the new IT representative of the National Football League.

Yup, Peyton may still deliver “cut that meat” lines better than any player in the game and sport a sick Sprint-inspired mustache time and again, but Brees has, at least temporarily, knocked him off the pedestal. Super Bowl MVP. Leader behind one big part of a city’s emotional resurrection. Endorser to more and more brands by the day. Madden cover boy. Brees is everywhere, and it’s not hard to see why. His numbers are off the chart. The story of the Saints is one of the best in rececnt team sports memory. Plus, he’s been highly involved in the NO community and is a former Walter Payton Award Winner, all of which were factors in SI naming Brees Sportsman of the Year in 2009.

‘Cecilio’s Scribe’ makes a strong argument, but Peyton Manning is still the face of the NFL, and will be for some time, barring a two- or three-Super Bowl run by Brees or Tom Brady. Manning is arguably the league’s best player and he’s has tons and tons and TONS of national endorsements, and that’s a strong combination.

So who do you think is the face of the NFL? Vote after the jump…

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