Category: Fantasy Football (Page 32 of 324)

2010 Fantasy Football: Week 11 Rankings

I’m in a pretty good mood this evening after finding out that I was able to hold onto the top spot in FantasyPros accuracy contest.

Make it 6 weeks in a row for John Paulsen (The Scores Report) as the #1 overall expert. We’re running out of superlatives to describe his performance so we’ll just say that it’s been quite an impressive run. While Paulsen continues to be locked in a tight race for the top spot with Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Sports), this marks the 2nd consecutive week that he has extended his lead. The current lead also represents Paulsen’s largest advantage since week 5 so he has more than held his ground while facing some tough competition.

Below are my early rankings for Week 11. Be sure to check back throughout the week because they will change as the news begins to trickle in. For the first time, I’m also taking a stab at kicker rankings. I generally don’t like to rank kickers because they are so erratic, but I have a numbers-driven analytical process that I’m testing, and I’m interested to see how it fares. As always with kickers, keep an eye on the weather — you don’t want your game to be decided as your kicker has to try to hit a 42-yarder in a driving rainstorm. Generally-speaking, it’s better to start the guy that is kicking in a dome or in warm weather.

Updated Saturday, November 18.


Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 11

OAKLAND, CA - NOVEMBER 07: Johnnie Lee Higgins  of the Oakland Raiders is tackled after a catch by Brandon Flowers  and Eric Berry  of the Kansas City Chiefs during an NFL game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on November 7, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 10 picks fared:

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Strength of Schedule: Week 11

This has been in the works for a couple of weeks now, but I’m pleased to present strength of schedule for all the main fantasy football positions, including PPR SOS for RBs, WRs and TEs. For years, I’ve been using the SOS over at Footballguys.com, but they don’t provide PPR SOS, so I thought I’d develop my own process.

What am I looking at?

Below you’ll see a table for each position with a list of team names on the left. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup. On the far right, the column “R16” shows the average SOS for the remaining weeks.

It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.

How do I use these tables?

Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting Fred Jackson and Ronnie Brown. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if Jackson has a great matchup and Brown has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if Jackson just has a mediocre matchup while Brown has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with Jackson.

Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.

Note: I apologize for the size of the text, but there really is no other way for me to present this data, at least not at this point.

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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 11

Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?

I’m here to help.

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (usually Wednesday or Thursday) when I’ll release my official Week 11 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Waiver Wire Watch, Week 11: Where we all wonder if Rob Gronkowski is worth a pickup

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Josh Freeman (57.1)
In a not-so-great matchup against the Panthers, Freeman still produced. Other than a poor Week 3 outing against the Steelers, he’s been remarkably consistent throwing for at least 212 yards or 2 TDs in every game this season. Other than a shaky Week 12 matchup in Baltimore, the rest of his schedule is quite favorable.

David Garrard (56.5)
Garrard was the beneficiary of a fluke Hail Mary TD to win Sunday’s game against the Texans, but he still would have posted nice numbers without it. He has a nice matchup with the Browns this week before two tough matchups with the Giants and Titans.

Jon Kitna (8.8)
I’m shocked at Kitna’s line from Sunday in a matchup with a very good Giants pass defense: 327 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. The Lions are a pretty good matchup in Week 11.

Shaun Hill (5.4)
I’m pretty surprised that Hill struggled in the first half against the Bills, but maybe he was just shaking the rust off. He finished with solid numbers (323 yards, TD, INT) though another TD would have been nice. He has the Cowboys and Patriots coming up, so he’s a fine starter in the short term.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (39.5)
It was a surprisingly quiet day for Fitzy against a suspect Lions pass defense, but he still finished with 146 yards and a TD. He almost connected with Lee Evans on a long TD pass earlier in the game as well. The Bengals held Peyton Manning in check in Week 10, so the Buffalo pass offense might have problems in Week 11.

Matt Cassel (39.3)
The Chiefs were in catch-up mode for the entire Denver game, so don’t let Cassel’s numbers fool you — the Chiefs are a running team. Still, Cassel now has 12 TDs in his last five games, and that’s not bad at all. His upcoming schedule (ARI, @ SEA, DEN) is favorable.

Sam Bradford (28.6)
The rookie keeps chugging along, throwing for 251 yards and a TD on the 49ers. His short term schedule (ATL, @ DEN, @ ARI) is nice.

Troy Smith (3.1)
Smith now has three touchdowns (2 pass, 1 rush) in two games and will continue to start for the 49ers. His next two matchups (TB, @ ARI) are favorable.

Jason Campbell (7.4)
It looks like Tom Cable is going to stick with Campbell and why not — he has thrown for 743 yards and five TDs in three straight wins. If the Raiders can get Zach Miller and Louis Williams healthy, they could be in business. Too bad Oakland faces the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 11.

Vince Young (59.6)
He’s really nicked up, but he has Randy Moss and Nate Washington to throw to and the threat of Chris Johnson to keep the safeties honest.

Tyler Thigpen (0.2)
Please see: What can we expect from new Miami QB Tyler Thigpen?

Colt McCoy (3.5)
Outside of a quiet game in Week 7, McCoy has thrown or ran for one TD in his other three starts. He’s not a bad start this week against a very sketchy Jags defense.

Matt Hasselbeck (14.5)
He threw for 333 yards and a TD against the Cardinals, but did break a bone in his non-throwing wrist. Given a matchup with a pretty stout Saints defense in Week 11, he’s not starter-worthy anyway.

Derek Anderson (3.8)
He’s something of a turnover machine, but Anderson has thrown three TDs in the last three games and his upcoming schedule isn’t terrible.

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