After free agency, the draft is the next big event in the NFL calendar. A good fantasy season starts in the offseason, and a savvy fantasy footballer should pay attention to the draft. Specifically, we need to identify those skill position players that will have an opportunity to shine come September.
Running back is the most important position to consider. Of all the skill positions, tailbacks have the easiest transition to the pros, and there are usually a few rookie standouts every season. Last year, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch burst onto the scene in a big way. Two seasons ago, Maurice Jones-Drew, Joseph Addai and Reggie Bush became household names. (At least in fantasy households, that is.)
To a lesser extent, it’s also important to identify those wide receivers and tight ends that will have a chance to play right away. The transition to the NFL is much more difficult for these positions, but anyone who picked up Marques Colston off the waiver wire two seasons ago will tell you that there are exceptions. Last season, Dwayne Bowe and Calvin Johnson were starter-quality in many fantasy leagues and there are no doubt a few wideouts from the ’08 class that will have an impact this fall.
Conversely, it’s rare for a first-year quarterback to have any appreciable success in his rookie season, so it’s better just to pretend they don’t exist.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at this weekend’s draft and try to identify a few rookies that will make an impact this fall.
RUNNING BACKS
Darren McFadden, Raiders
Al Davis’ flashy offseason continues. The Raiders added the top RB prospect in the draft to a rushing corps that includes Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, Dominic Rhodes and LaMont Jordan. Conventional wisdom says that McFadden will eventually start, but Fargas played well last season, Bush has some upside, and both Rhodes and Jordan are proven veterans. If McFadden sits atop the depth chart come August, you can bet he’ll be a third- or fourth-round pick (at least).
Matt Forte, Bears
Thus far in his career, it’s fair to say that Cedric Benson has been a disappointment, so it’s no surprise that Chicago decided to shore up its running game in the draft. GM Jerry Angelo considers Forte to be a “three-down back” which means that Benson’s job is in serious jeopardy. Forte is a big, strong back, has good hands and is an instinctive runner. He lacks breakaway speed, but should be a good fit for the Bears grind-it-out offense.
Kevin Smith, Lions
Detroit released Kevin Jones, and now has Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun sitting atop its depth chart, so there are carries to be had in the Motor City. Smith was the eighth RB selected this weekend and he played college ball for Detroit, so the Lions have had ample opportunity to scout him. He is patient, strong and runs with a mean streak, but there are questions about his speed and character.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Just when fantasy owners thought that DeAngelo Williams would have the Carolina backfield to himself, here comes another talented back. With the departure of DeShaun Foster, there are a lot of carries to go around in Carolina’s run-heavy attack and Stewart is talented enough to challenge Williams for the starting job. He’s quick and agile, but the big concern for Stewart is his durability, as he always seemed to be nicked up. He doesn’t have a lot of experience carrying the full load, so it looks like we may have a RBBC in Carolina… again. (Great.)
Other RBs to watch: A number of teams set themselves up for “Thunder and Lightning” combinations. The speedy Felix Jones will join Marion Barber in Dallas. Likewise, the even speedier Chris Johnson will provide a big change of pace from LenDale White’s plodding style. In Pittsburgh, Rashard Mendenhall, who was projected to be the second back off the board, landed in Pittsburgh (as the fourth RB selected), where he’ll likely share the load with Willie Parker… A few mid-round RBs went to teams with vulnerable starters. The shifty and speedy Steve Slaton will try to poach Ahman Green’s job in Houston, while Tim Hightower, a strong but plodding runner, joins an Arizona backfield that is thin on talent.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Devin Thomas, Redskins
Although he only had one good season at the major collegiate level, the scouts are high Thomas’ great hands and ability to make people miss after the catch. He has good speed and is a smooth runner. Since Antwaan Randle El is better suited as a slot receiver, a good preseason could earn Thomas a starting job in Washington.
James Hardy, Bills
At 6’5”, Hardy is the prototypical “big” receiver. He’s athletic and has good speed. Like most rookie wideouts, he needs to work on his route running, but he’s capable of contributing right away given Buffalo’s options after Lee Evans.
Limas Sweed, Steelers
Scouts, Inc. had Sweed rated as their most talented WR in the ’08 class, but a wrist injury is an on-going concern. Sweed was drafted as the heir-apparent to Hines Ward, but it will take an injury to Ward or Santonio Holmes for him to crack the starting lineup.
Malcom Kelly, Redskins
Kelly is another highly rated wideout heading to a good situation. He’ll have to battle fellow rookie Devin Thomas for playing time, but there is a lot of opportunity for targets in Washington and someone has to get them. Kelly lacks top end speed, but otherwise he’s a solid receiver with nice hands and good quickness.
DeSean Jackson, Eagles
With Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis holding down the starting jobs in Philly, there isn’t a whole lot standing between Jackson and a starting job. He was one of the highest rated wideouts in the draft and if he can keep his focus, he should have an opportunity to shine for the Eagles.
Donnie Avery, Rams
Avery has tremendous speed, so if he improves his route running, he could play a lot of snaps as the Rams third wideout. Isaac Bruce is gone, so Avery just has to beat out guys like Dane Looker and Reche Caldwell for that WR3 spot.
Other WRs to watch: Playing time is going to be the problem for Jordy Nelson, who joins Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones in the Packers’ stacked receiving corps. If one or more of those players misses time with an injury, Nelson should be ready to step in. He is big and strong (and surprisingly quick) and has good hands. He should thrive in the West Coast offense once he gets a chance… Eddie Royal joins a Denver team that is reshuffling its WR corps after the departure of Javon Walker. He’s small, quick and speedy, and will probably contribute more as a return man than a wideout unless injuries push him into action… It looks like the Giants got nice value in Mario Manningham, who some thought would be drafted in the first or second round. He is a playmaker, but has character and durability concerns that caused him to drop into the third round. The Giants will try to find Amani Toomer’s replacement over the next couple of seasons, and Manningham is a contender… Jerome Simpson joins a Bengals WR corps that is in flux. He has great hands and terrific leaping ability, and while his speed isn’t great, he doesn’t have any major weaknesses in his game.
TIGHT ENDS
Dustin Keller, Jets
Keller is more of a big wide receiver than a tight end. He’s athletic and is a weapon in the passing game, but isn’t much of a blocker. With Chris Baker and Bubba Franks ahead of him, Keller has an opportunity to be the Jets’ main TE in the passing game next season.
John Carlson, Seahawks
The Seahawks acquired Jeb Putzier in the offseason, but they drafted Carlson to be their future TE. He has to work on his footwork, but he has all the tools to be a quality starter in the NFL.
Other TEs to watch: The Redskins drafted Fred Davis despite having one of the best pass-catching TEs in Chris Cooley. He’s very reliable in the short to intermediate passing game and has good quickness and a knack for making catches… The Chiefs drafted Brad Cottam to be the heir-apparent to Tony Gonzalez, who has said that he’s only planning to play one more season. Cottam is big, quick and fast, but has had trouble staying on the field.
