Category: Fantasy Football (Page 24 of 324)

2010 Fantasy Football: Week 15 Rankings

I’m pleased to report that I finished #1 overall in Week 14 in the FantasyPros accuracy contest, so I extended my lead and am still ranked #1 on the season.

Congratulations to John Paulsen (The Scores Report) for taking home the honor as the most accurate expert in week 14. As the #1 expert in our competition for several months running, it’s fitting that he would step up his game as the playoffs arrived. As Bill Parcells once famously said, “Big players make big plays in big games” and it certainly seems like this quote can be adapted to describe Paulsen’s performance. In typical fashion, he delivered a solid set of advice across several key positions: WR (#2 rank), RB (#5 rank) and TE (#9 rank). For his WR picks, Paulsen rode the success of many of week 14’s top studs including DeSean Jackson (PHI), Deion Branch (NE) and Marques Colston (NO). Perhaps even more impressively, he also anticipated several of the week’s biggest underachievers. For instance, he had Dwayne Bowe (KC) slotted lower than most experts (WR #23) and Bowe’s disappearing act (just .3 points) helped solidify his high accuracy rating.

With his 1st place finish in week 14, it should come as no surprise that John Paulsen (The Scores Report) remains in the top position in the YTD standings. For those keeping score at home, this now makes it 10 weeks in a row that Paulsen has occupied the #1 overall spot. That’s a very impressive feat given the quality of competition that’s involved in the contest. Most importantly for Paulsen, he has now extended his lead in the competition and must only stay ahead of the pack for two more weeks in order to claim the crown as 2010’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert.

Two weeks to go! Feet don’t fail me now!

Below you’ll find my first stab at the Week 15 rankings. Be sure to check back as they’ll certainly change as the news trickles in.

If you can’t see the rankings, it’s due to the heavy traffic at the FantasyPros site. I’ll have a set of text rankings up Sunday morning. If you are wondering specifically about Vincent Jackson with Malcom Floyd out. I have him at #13, so he’s a very good WR2 start this week.

Text rankings below…

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Strength of Schedule (SOS): Week 15

What am I looking at?

Below you’ll see a table for each position with a list of team names on the left. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup. On the far right, the column “R16” shows the average SOS for the remaining weeks.

It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.

How do I use these tables?

Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Ronnie Brown. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Brown has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Brown has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.

Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.

Note: I apologize for the size of the text, but there really is no other way for me to present this data, at least not at this point.

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Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 15

CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 12: Jerod Mayo  of the New England Patriots tackles Earl Bennett  of the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 12, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Patriots defeated the Bears 36-7. (Photo by Scott Boehm/Getty Images)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 14 picks fared:

#1 Falcons: 10 PA (6) + 5 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR = 13 fantasy points
#2: Patriots: 7 PA (6) + 2 SK + 2 INT + 2 FR + 1 RET TD = 18 fp
#3: Bills: 6 PA (8) + 1 SK + 1 INT + 2 FR = 12 fp

Now that’s more like it. DTBWW has been a little spotty this season, but it came through in a big way in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Truth be told, W14 was the best scoring week for defenses around the league — 14 DTs scored 10+ points, which was the most of any week this season.

On the season, my picks are averaging 8.0 | 8.9 | 7.6 (1st, 2nd, 3rd) for an overall average of 8.2 fantasy points per game. Those are DT6 numbers when you account for each team’s bye week.

Let’s take a look at my Week 15 picks keeping in mind that to be eligible, defenses must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. There are five DTs that I really like this week, so I’m going to list all five and hope that my readers can find at least one on their waiver wire this week:

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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 15

It’s playoff time!

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (Wednesday) when I’ll release my official Week 15 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Also, follow me on Twitter @fantasytips.

Waiver Wire Watch, Week 15: Where Ryan Torain is once again the Redskins’ starting RB

Washington Redskins' running back Ryan Torain runs for a short gain against the the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second quarter at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland on December 12, 2010. UPI/Kevin Dietsch Photo via Newscom

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Josh Freeman (59.0)
Save for a bad game against the Steelers in W3, Freeman has been solid all season throwing for at least one TD in 12 of 13 games. He’ll also add 10-40 rushing yards, which helps the bottom line. He should be able to post nice numbers in a W15 matchup against the Lions.

Jon Kitna (18.2)
Kitna has a pretty good matchup with the Redskins, who have struggled to stop the pass this season. He has thrown at least one TD in seven of his last eight games, so I’d expect 200+ yards and 1-2 TDs against Washington in W15.

Matt Hasselbeck (14.3)
The Falcons have struggled against the pass and Hasselbeck has shown that he can be productive against suspect secondaries. It would certainly help if Mike Williams and/or Ben Obomanu could make it back, since the Seahawks lost Deon Butler to a broken leg.

David Garrard (43.2)
I’m not psyched about Garrard’s matchup with Indy. He played well against the Colts in W4, but the Jags will continue to feature the run, so I don’t see another three-TD game in his near future. Still, he’s a decent matchup and has had success against the Colts recently.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (33.6)
I do like the idea of Fitzy in W16 against the Pats (though they’ve managed to shut down Mark Sanchez and Jay Cutler in recent weeks). But the Dolphins are pretty tough against the pass, so I expect I’ll rank Fitzpatrick in the high teens this week.

Jason Campbell (6.7)
Campbell played well in a good matchup against the Jags in W14 and now he has another good matchup against the reeling Broncos. Campbell has had his share of stinkers (W6 against the 49ers and W11 against the Steelers come to mind), but he has played well in good matchups, so I’d expect a good line this week against the Broncos.

Kerry Collins (1.2)
Talk about inconsistent. Collins went from dreadful against the Jags in W13 to great (fantasy-wise) against the Colts in W14. He has the Texans in W15, so I’d expect good fantasy numbers.

Sam Bradford (34.5)
What’s happened to the rookie? He had a run of six straight games with at least one TD pass, but has failed to throw any in the last two weeks. His matchups the next two weeks are decent, but his recent failings have shaken my confidence in the youngster.

Drew Stanton (0.7)
Stanton was shaky against the Packers, but Green Bay is tough to throw on. The Bucs should be a bit easier, especially with Aqib Talib out for the season.

Chad Henne (46.9)
With back-to-back stinkers, as well as losing his job midseason, I’m not sure how Henne is owned in almost 47% of ESPN leagues. He does have the Bills and Lions the next two weeks, so if you’re really desperate, you could do worse. (See below.)

Alex Smith (6.7)
Smith torched the Seahawks, but the Chargers are another story.

Matt Flynn (0.0)
He had one good drive against the Lions, but threw a costly pick in the endzone. I am not optimistic about his chances against the Pats, who have played pretty good pass defense of late.

Jake Delhomme (1.4)
Ugh.

Tarvaris Jackson (0.9)
UGH.

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