Category: Fantasy Football (Page 104 of 324)

      Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 3

      September 23, 2009 /

      The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, usually one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

      Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s take a look at how they performed:

      #1 Falcons: 1 SK + 1 FR + 1 INT = 3 fantasy points
      #2 Redskins: 7 PA (6) + 1 SK + 1 FR = 8 fp
      #3 Broncos: 6 PA (8) + 4 SK + 1 INT + 2 FR = 15 fp

      So far, my #1 pick is averaging 3.5 fantasy points (not good), my #2 pick is averaging 11.0 points (very good) and my bonus pick is averaging 10.0 points (very good). The overall average is 8.2 fantasy points.

      Here are this week’s recommendations. All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. If the Packers are available in your league, I’d start them (against the Rams) before any of these teams this week.

      Pick #1: Broncos (@ OAK)
      Through the first two weeks, the Broncos own the #2 fantasy defense. Is this going to last? Probably not. But after two great matchups with the Bengals and Browns, the Broncos get another potentially good matchup with the Oakland Raiders.

      Pick #2: Redskins (@ DET)
      Washington’s defense is solid, yet unspectacular. In the last three seasons, the Redskins have finished no higher than 19th in fantasy defense. But last week they held the Rams to just seven points, and this week they get a tasty matchup with the Detroit Lions.

      Bonus Pick: Cowboys (vs. CAR)
      Believe it or not, the Cowboys have failed to register a sack or create a turnover through two games. But with Jake Delhomme coming to town, that should change. I’d expect the Cowboys defense will be fired up and ready to play after a tough loss against the Giants last week. Wade Phillips is a good defensive coach, so he should be able to turn things around.

      Fantasy Football

      Fantasy Quick-Hitters: Fitz, Marshall, and more

      September 22, 2009 /

      Larry Fitzgerald isn’t happy with the number of balls being thrown his way. In PPR leagues, Fitz is averaging 16.3 fantasy points through two games, which isn’t bad, but he’s only averaging 53 yards per game, well off last season’s average of 89 ypg. If he weren’t catching TDs, fantasy owners might be a little panicked.

      Mike Bell is likely to miss Week 3, at least according to Jay Glazer, who is usually right about such things. Pierre Thomas is coming back from his own knee sprain and was active on Sunday, so if Bell misses, he’ll have a shot to post some nice numbers against Buffalo if the Saints give him his usual workload. The good news for Bell is that an MRI revealed no structural damage.

      Troy Williamson is out for the year. The Jags also cut Nate Hughes, so the starting duties are left up to Torry Holt and Mike Sims-Walker (who posted some nice numbers in garbage time on Sunday). Sims-Walker is worth a pickup in most 12-team leagues. Let’s just hope he can stay healthy.

      HC McDaniels says that B. Marshall is a rotational player. This is not what we wanted to hear. It’s not clear why McDaniels is rotating his WRs when Marshall and Eddie Royal are far and away the Broncos’ two best wideouts. Royal has been getting consistent snaps, so this looks like some sort of punishment for Marshall. Not good. Fantasy owners can feel free to bench Marshall if they have a better option waiting in the wings. It looks like Marshall’s days of 10-15 targets a game are long gone, at least for now.

      Fantasy Football

      Waiver Wire Watch: Week 3

      September 22, 2009 /

      Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

      Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

      Trent Edwards is available in 57% of ESPN leagues, so if he’s out there, pick him up first before moving onto the rest of the list…

      Mark Sanchez (31.5)
      The rookie has looked solid in his first two games and fared pretty well against a pretty tough New England defense last week.
      Byron Leftwich (4.9)
      The Bucs propensity to trail keeps Leftwich throwing a ton throughout the game.
      Shaun Hill (10.9)
      His defense and running game might prevent him from fulfilling his sleeper status this season.
      Chad Pennington (24.6)
      Kerry Collins (10.5)
      If the Titans’ poor pass defense keeps up, they’ll have to keep throwing in the second half.
      Jake Delhomme (26.1)
      JaMarcus Russell (10.4)
      Marc Bulger (2.8)
      Kevin Kolb (0.3)
      Has KC this week, so if McNabb doesn’t play, he’s a viable fantasy start.
      Jason Campbell (21.9)

      Continue reading »

      Fantasy Football

      Revisiting the Santonio Holmes Postulate

      September 21, 2009 /

      Last week, I posed a theory that Santonio Holmes puts up much better numbers when the Steelers struggle to run the ball.

      Intuitively, this makes sense. The Steelers have always wanted to be a running team, and generally don’t cut the passing game loose unless they’re having real problems on the ground. In the 17 games over the past two-plus seasons where the Steelers have averaged fewer than 4.0 ypc, Holmes has averaged 4.3 receptions for 74 yards and 0.8 TD, which equates to 16.6 fantasy points per game. Last season, eight WRs — Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Bryant
      and Steve Smith — had higher averages.

      What does this all mean? Well, when the Steelers have trouble running (i.e. they are unable to rush for 4.0 ypc or more), then Santonio Holmes is a top 10 receiver. This happened in 17 of the Steelers’ last 34 games, and 12 of those 17 games were in 2008 or 2009, so as the Steelers continue to have bigger and bigger problems running the ball, Holmes’s average production should continue to rise.

      It’s worth noting that in games where the Steelers rushed for 4.0 ypc or more, Holmes averaged 3.7 receptions for 57 yards and 0.2 TD (or 10.5 fantasy points). These are WR30-WR35 numbers.

      In Week 2, the Steelers visited the Bears, who traditionally have a good rush defense. Pittsburgh running backs gained 99 yards on 19 carries, which equates to a healthy 5.2 yards per carry. But a good portion of those yards came on one play, a Rashard Mendenhall 39-yards scamper in the middle of the third quarter. Removing that play, the Steelers rushed for just 3.3 yards per carry.

      For his part, Santonio Holmes had a pretty nice day in the receiving game. He caught five passes for 83 yards, but dropped a couple of balls, including a potential TD in the endzone. Still, in PPR leagues, this is a very reasonable 13.3 fantasy points.

      Though the YPC doesn’t reflect it, the Steelers had a tough time running the ball on Sunday. And, once again, Holmes thrived. The Steelers play Cincinnati next week, and the Bengals have been pretty stingy against the run thus far, allowing just 3.6 ypc to opposing running backs. If the Steelers can’t get the Parker-Mendenhall-Moore RBBC going in the first half, Holmes should have another good day.

      Fantasy Football

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