Category: Fantasy Basketball (Page 204 of 274)

      Suns’ makeover a work in progress

      December 19, 2008 /

      Steve Kerr took over as GM of the Suns in the summer of 2007 and his first move was to trade the rights to Rudy Fernandez to the Blazers for cash considerations. Obviously, with Fernandez on the short list of serious Rookie of the Year contenders, this was a bad, bad move. He came out of that draft with University of Wisconsin standout Alando Tucker, who has only played 48 total minutes in a season and change.

      He then traded Kurt Thomas and two future first round picks to the Seattle Supersonics in a straight salary dump. The next move was his biggest — he traded Shawn Marion to the Heat for Shaquille O’Neal.

      At the time, I thought it was a mistake to break up that Suns team that was a couple of bench-clearing infractions away from upending the Spurs in the 2007 playoffs. No matter how much of a distraction Shawn Marion was at the time — and as I remember, the Matrix was a pretty good citizen for most of 2007 — he was essential to the success of Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo attack.

      Those Suns were fun to watch and, more importantly, they were damn good. They made the Western Conference Finals in 2006 and lost to the eventual champs in the aforementioned 2007 playoffs. Who’s to say that one more season wouldn’t have made the difference?

      Steve Kerr, that’s who.

      Kerr is well-liked and well-respected. I always enjoyed listening to his color commentary and found him to be quite knowledgeable. But in one and a half seasons running the Suns, I am not impressed with his skills as a GM. Sure, there’s a chance that Shaq finds the Fountain of Youth and, as Roland Lazenby of HoopsHype writes, this team will be suddenly able to put it all together in time for a serious playoff run, but right now they look like a mediocre team with a bunch of good players whose best years are far behind them.

      Close your eyes for a moment and imagine this Suns team, still led by Mike D’Antoni, with Marion instead of O’Neal, and Rudy Fernandez filling the wing. Is that better or worse than what we’re watching now?

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA

      Carlos Boozer confirms that he intends to opt out

      December 19, 2008 /

      Carlos Boozer raised a few eyebrows recently when he told ESPN’s Chris Sheridan that he did intend to opt out after this season. He confirmed this to The Salt Lake Tribune via a conference call.

      Since I wasn’t there for the conversation between Carlos Boozer and ESPN.com’s Chris Sheridan on Wednesday night, I can’t say what was and wasn’t said. What I can report is that there are some in the Jazz organization who believe Boozer was, to borrow the description of one, “sideswiped” by the whole report.

      That’s not excusing anything Boozer said. But Boozer thought he was chatting with Sheridan, who covered the U.S. Olympic team in Beijing, and might have been talking through the various scenarios associated with opting out more than making any definitive statements about his future.

      As the Jazz note, Boozer gains nothing by announcing he’s opting out right now. Maybe it would have made sense to do so before the season. But right now, all Boozer’s achieving is calling attention to himself when he’s not playing and undergoing second MRI exams. In other words, he’s hurting his value.

      The Jazz also continue to believe the Boozer-to-Miami rumors are more media driven than grounded in fact. There are questions, first of all, about whether the Heat will even have $10 million of cap space to sign a free agent this summer. The Heat also have forwards Udonis Haslem and Michael Beasley, both similar to Boozer.

      Boozer took part in a conference call this afternoon with the Deseret News’ Tim Buckley and me. Here’s the transcript of what he had to say:

      “First of all, I just want to say when I was talking to Chris yesterday, obviously I was thinking it was more of a casual conversation, but he was asking about the future, for myself and also for Paul and for our team. Obviously, the thing that came out in the papers, or the Internet, whatever, what I was trying to say to him was obviously in my business, like in most people’s businesses, you get a chance every now and then to sign a long-term contract and have stability.

      “So the smart thing for me as an individual obviously would be to opt out and have a chance to have stability. Obviously, I wanted to stay here with the team. I wasn’t trying to say I was going to leave or anything like that. Obviously, I’ll look at my options, but the smart thing for me is to opt out and instead of having a one-year deal, the possibility of having a six-year deal. That makes sense for my business. That’s what I was trying to tell him yesterday. I didn’t know it was going to turn into this big rainfall type of thing.”

      I don’t know why Jazz owner Larry Miller is upset.

      Jazz owner Larry Miller slammed Boozer in his weekly radio appearance on KFAN 1320, saying, “It’s one of the top 10 stupidest things I’ve heard an NBA player do in 20 years.”

      Miller said Boozer’s timing detracted from the Jazz’s victory over New Jersey and came not only as he has missed 15 games with a strained left quadriceps tendon but after he missed 80 games early on after coming to the Jazz.

      Those memories are hard to shake, with Miller saying, “a lot of people are still suspicious about that, a lot of fans and stuff, and we’ve covered for him and protected him, justifiably.”

      Of course he’s going to opt out. He’s due to make $12.7 million next season which is well below the market value of a player with his skill set. Assuming he’s healthy — and he has battled injuries in the past — he’s going to be able to sign a max or near-max contract next summer. Why would anyone play out the final year of a deal when they could sign a five- or six-year guaranteed contract and start at a higher salary?

      The timing is odd, considering that Boozer has missed the last 15 games with a quad injury. It doesn’t sound like he planned to share this information with the world, but I don’t know why anyone is really surprised.

      Paul Millsap has averaged 17.8 points and 11.1 rebounds in 13 games as a starter filling in for Boozer. He too is a free agent after the season, so it will be interesting to see how the Jazz handle these two players as they bring similar things to the table. In my latest column, I suggested that Utah trade Boozer to Dallas for Dirk Nowitzki. To me, it’s likely that he’s going to leave and sign with Miami, but he continues to state that he intends to stay in Salt Lake City.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, Rumors & Gossip

      Four NBA trades that need to happen

      December 18, 2008 /

      About this time every season, the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders and teams that are struggling to stay in the playoff hunt are starting to look forward to next year. With that in mind, here are four trades that I’d love to see pop up amongst the NBA headlines in the coming weeks. I’ve done my best to make these trades equitable and realistic, but if you’re a fan of one of these teams, or just a fan of the NBA in general, I’d love to hear your thoughts.

      1. Shawn Marion for Lamar Odom and Sun Yue
      Yes, I know that the Lakers have the best record in the West, but let’s get real – they’re starting Luke Walton at small forward. No matter what the Laker faithful believes, they have a hole in their lineup. Lamar Odom can’t play alongside Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol because he can’t shoot. He proved in the Finals against the Celtics that he wasn’t tough enough to battle Kevin Garnett. Trevor Ariza is a slightly better option, but after a quick start, he’s shooting 29% from long range. Vladimir Radmanvoic? Sasha Vujacic? Come on.

      Is Marion the perfect fit? Not really. His three-point accuracy (34%) could be better, but he’s still more of a threat than Odom (32%), especially from the corners. Are there any other holes in his game? He thrived in the Suns’ up-tempo system and the Lakers boast the third-fastest pace in the league. He’s a much better defender than Odom and is far more versatile on that end of the court. Marion could even give Kobe a break defensively by covering the other team’s best perimeter player. That would keep Kobe’s legs fresh for crunch time. (Sun Yue is a throw-in to make the numbers work.)

      What’s the upside for the Heat? Well, they can still make a run at Carlos Boozer if they choose, and if that doesn’t pan out, they can re-sign Odom, a versatile forward that can play alongside Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley. He’s a better passer than Marion (so he can better set up Wade and Beasley) and is every bit the rebounder. Odom had one of his best years when he was in Miami and would be a solid backup plan if Operation Boozer doesn’t succeed. It doesn’t look like the Marion experiment is working, so they should acquire a player they at least might want to re-sign next summer.

      See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine.

      2. Michael Redd for Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and J.J. Hickson
      Redd still has two more seasons on his deal at the tune of $35 million, but that shouldn’t matter to the Cavs. Right now, it’s all about surrounding LeBron with enough talent to get to the Finals. Redd’s numbers have taken a dip this season, but that probably has more to do with fewer attempts (-2.1) than anything else. His shooting percentage is down (-2.3%), but he’s a career 45% shooter, so there’s no reason to believe that he wouldn’t get back to that level of accuracy playing alongside LeBron and Mo Williams.

      Barring a mid-season surge by the Bucks, they are once again looking at finishing in the lottery. They’ve struggled with injuries and may yet make a push, but right now it looks like another year of rebuilding. This trade would get the team out from under Redd’s monster contract (because Wally’s deal is expiring) while also giving the team a starter-quality shooting guard (West) and a nice power forward prospect (Hickson) who isn’t getting any minutes in Cleveland. With Redd’s contract jettisoned, the Bucks would have a significant amount of cap space (~ $14 million) to throw at a guy like Joe Johnson.

      See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine.

      3. Dirk Nowitzki for Carlos Boozer, Ronnie Price and Jarron Collins
      Right now, Carlos is saying all the right things, but if he has the option of a max contract in Utah and a max contract in Miami (where he lives in the offseason), which do you think he’ll choose? Sure, he and Deron Williams make a nice combo, but with Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley, Miami is just as attractive. So if you’re the Jazz and you see the writing on the wall, don’t you want to get something in return? Nowitzki would replace Boozer’s scoring and rebounding and keep Utah’s winning ways going. Dirk really needs a change of scenery (to put the memory of the 2006 Finals behind him) and the Jazz would be one step closer to putting together an all-international roster.

      For Dallas, it’s about changing things up. They’d get younger – Boozer is 27 while Dirk is 30 – and he’d give the team someone to build around for the next few years. This move would make a lot more sense for the Mavs if they hadn’t traded away Devin Harris (because re-signing with Dallas would make a lot more sense for Boozer), but if they could get a commitment from Boozer that he would re-sign, the deal makes sense. (Of course, as Cleveland fans know, trusting Boozer’s word is awfully dicey.)

      See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine.

      4. Mike Miller for Bruce Bowen, Roger Mason and a first round draft pick
      At 28, Mike Miller is one of the best shooters in the league and is languishing on a team that is going nowhere. Spurs fans may not want to give up Mason, but Miller is the better shooter, passer and rebounder. Plus, he’s a natural small forward, which would make him a better fit alongside Manu Ginobili on the wing. He would be deadly spacing the court for Tim Duncan’s post play and Tony Parker’s penetration.

      What’s the upside for the T-Wolves? Well, they’d get a solid player in Mason and another first round pick, which would give them five for next summer’s draft. They should be able to turn five picks into two (or three) star- or starter-quality players.

      See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA

      Shawn Marion to Cavs?

      December 16, 2008 /

      Yahoo! Sports is reporting that the Miami Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers are in trade discussions involving former All-Star Shawn Marion.

      The Cavaliers have had ongoing discussions with the Miami Heat about an Anderson Varejao and Wally Szczerbiak for Shawn Marion trade, a league executive familiar with the discussions said.

      Miami has had discussions with several teams lately on Marion, including the Toronto Raptors and Sacramento Kings, sources say, but Cleveland could deliver the most intriguing proposition. Marion has struggled with the Heat – averaging well below his career averages in scoring and rebounding – but several league executives believe he’ll be more motivated and valuable with a championship contender. That’s the reason Cleveland is entertaining the possibility. GM Danny Ferry and coach Mike Brown are wondering whether Marion could be the difference in a conference final against the Celtics.

      Nothing is imminent, but it’s an intriguing possibility. Since Marion’s trade to Miami for Shaquille O’Neal last season, his value has steadily declined. Before the season, his agent, Dan Fegan, turned down a three-year, $30 million extension. Marion will be lucky to get more on the market this summer. Marion, 30, makes $17.8 million this season.

      For the Heat, Szczerbiak has a $13 million expiring contract, and Varejao has a player’s option on $6.2 million. He’ll likely opt out. This leaves Miami with a chance to negotiate a new contract with Varejao, or let him lapse and allow the Heat even more cap space for the summer.. Still, Cleveland is 20-4 and hesitant to mess with the chemistry. Nevertheless, the Cavs are trying desperately to win a championship with James prior to 2010 free agency.

      Brown loves to play big lineups with Varejao on the floor, but Marion could give the Cavs the versatility on defense that he did the Suns. In the same series, Marion could cover Tony Parker and Tim Duncan. Against the Celtics, Marion could spend time on Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett. For the Cavs, it’s something to consider as the days and weeks churn toward the Feb. 17 trade deadline.

      Varejao has played very well this season (PER: 17.82, #17 amongst PFs) while Marion has not been as productive as in years past (PER: 15.92, #15 amongst SFs), but he’s still an above average forward. As the article stated, the upside for the Cavs is Marion’s versatility, especially on the defensive end. Offensively, he’s a nice match for LeBron and Mo Williams because he doesn’t need to have plays run for him to have an impact. He’ll get many of his points on offensive rebounds or on the break.

      If I were running the Heat, this is not a trade I would make. Szczerbiak’s contract is expiring, so he’s not the problem. The article states that Anderson Varejao is likely to opt out of the final year of his contract, but what if he doesn’t? If the Heat want to make a run at Carlos Boozer next summer, they need to get rid of Mark Blount’s contract, not potentially take on another deal that runs through the 2009-10 season. If they can get rid of Blount (or Udonis Haslem, which would be a lot easier), they’ll have enough cap space to sign Boozer and will then have a great shot at locking Dwyane Wade up long-term in the summer of 2010.

      If Miami is certain that Varejao will opt out, then there is little risk to the trade. They’ll give themselves a backup if Boozer decides to stay in Utah or sign elsewhere, but they’re likely to have that backup plan anyway if Varejao stayed in Cleveland. But if they pull the trigger on this trade and Varejao elects to play out his contract (or gets injured), then they won’t have the cap space necessary to sign Boozer.

      I wouldn’t risk it.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA

      A few interesting NBA pace and efficiency stats

      December 16, 2008 /

      Looking at John Hollinger’s team statistics, a few interesting things jump out:

      1. No big surprises at the top of the pace list — that’s the number of positions a team plays on average per game. The Warriors, Knicks, Lakers and Nuggets are #1-#4. There are a couple of surprises at the bottom with the Hornets at #29 and Blazers at #30. Since New Orleans has the best point guard in the league, you’d think that they’d want to get out and push the ball and allow him to create. On the other hand, Portland’s youth might provide a conditioning advantage, but the Blazers have been content to slow things down. It’s funny to see the Suns at #11, but that just goes to show how differently they play with Shaq and without Mike D’Antoni.

      2. The Cavs are tops in offensive efficiency (points scored / # of possessions). They were #18 last season, so this is a huge jump and explains why Cleveland is off to such a hot start. They are #2 in defensive efficiency, which is also a big jump from last year, when they finished #11 in that category. It would appear that the Mo Williams trade has helped offensively while not hurting the Cavs on the other end of the court. The bottom line is that Mike Brown is doing a nice job this year.

      3. The worst defensive team in the league? The Wizards. The worst offensive team in the league? The Thunder.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA

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