Phoenix Suns guard Steve Nash celebrates after his teammate Hakim Warrick scored to put the New York Knicks down nine points very late in the fourth quarter of their NBA basketball game at Madison Square Garden in New York January 17, 2011. REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine (UNITED STATES)
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Who is the best overall point guard in the NBA? The answer to this question depends on your criteria. Are you using the eye test or are you more interested in basic stats like points, assists and turnovers. Or do you want to use advanced statistics like Player Efficiency Rating (PER) or plus/minus numbers?
I am a stathead, but numbers only go so far. A point guard’s leadership, presence, poise, vision and defense is just as important as his shooting percentage or his assist to turnover ratio. As a former college player I think I know the game pretty well and I understand that numbers only go so far.
That said, let’s look at some numbers!
I like to use Efficiency Per Minute as a good overall gauge of a player’s production when he’s on the court. For this study, I took the top 30 players in Efficiency Per Game and then added a few players so that every team would be represented at least once.
EPM doesn’t take into account defense (except for steals, blocks and defensive rebounds), so for that side of things, I am putting together a custom statistic that uses both Opponent PER and on/off defensive stats from 82games.com. So, for Tony Parker, I’ll use his 48-minute opponent PER (15.1) and his Net Defense per 100 Possessions (-3.8). Both of these stats are flawed. Opponent PER doesn’t take into account what kind of team defender Parker is while his net defense could be impacted positively (or negatively) if his backup is really poor (or really great) defensively. There may also be bias of strength of schedule (i.e. there are better point guards in the West). But this is what we have to work with.
Using both Opponent PER and Net Defense, I came up with a Defensive Rating that weights each number equally versus others in this study. If the Defensive Rating is positive, he’s a better than average defender. If it’s negative, he’s below average.
Keep in mind that the EPM numbers are for an entire season while the 82games stats are only for a player’s current team, so the defensive rating for players who were traded midseason — Ray Felton, Chauncey Billups, Mike Bibby, Deron Williams, Mo Williams, Baron Davis, Devin Harris and Kirk Hinrich — will only factor in games after they were traded.
Here’s a look at the resulting chart. As always, click on the chart for a bigger version.
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UFC officials announced the match up earlier this week.
