Author: John Paulsen (Page 628 of 937)

Ryan Torain the latest Denver RB to go down

The hits just keep on coming for Mike Shanahan and the Denver Broncos running backs.

For the fourth time this season, Denver is expected to place a running back on injured reserve.

This time, rookie running back Ryan Torain has been lost with what is thought to be a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Torain will undergo more testing this weekend but the prognosis is not good.

The shame of it for Denver is that Torain was effective in the first half. He had 12 rushes for 68 yards (5.7 avg., 19-yard long), with one touchdown before leaving the game.

Maybe this is karma biting Skeletor in the ass for messing with fantasy owners all these years.

Selvin Young would be the guy if his groin were healed, but he re-aggravated it Thursday night. He might be a guy to stash on your roster that could help you out over the stretch run. FB Peyton Hillis got a lot of work once Torain left the game, while P.J. Pope and Cory Boyd are possibilities too.

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 10

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Donovan McNabb, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

LOVE ‘EM

QB: Brett Favre has a good matchup with a sketchy Rams defense and should be in starting lineups this week…There are a number of fantasy backup QBs that have nice matchups in Week 10. Chad Pennington faces a Seattle defense that has yielded 258 yards and 1.6 pass TD per game…Joe Flacco plays the Texans, who have given up an average of 203 yards and 1.5 pass TD this season…Tyler Thigpen has played pretty well the last two weeks, and he’ll have an opportunity to rack up some numbers against a Chargers defense that is dead last in the league against the pass…If you’re REALLY desperate, pick up Shaun Hill. He faces an Arizona defense that has allowed 2.0 pass TD per game.

RB: Be sure Maurice Jones-Drew is in your lineup as he faces a dreadful Lions rush defense that has yielded an average of 162 yards and 1.4 rush TD per game…Rumor has it that Willie Parker might miss Sunday’s matchup against the Colts, and if so, Mewelde Moore becomes a great start in his place. The Colts give up an average of 144 yards and 1.3 rush TD per game…Thomas Jones is looking like a strong start against the Rams, who are 29th in the league against the run…Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are still splitting time, but a great matchup against the league’s 30th-ranked Raider rush defense makes them both solid plays this week.

WR: Lee Evans should be in lineups this week against a New England defense that has given up 13 pass TD this season. It’s likely that Evans will be able to sneak deep for a score this week…Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles are nice starts against the Rams, who have allowed 246 yards and 1.5 pass TD per game…Greg Camarillo (and to a lesser extent, Ted Ginn) is a good start against the Seahawks, who have struggled against the pass this season…Assuming he’s not suspended between now and Sunday, the suddenly productive Matt Jones is a nice start against a terrible Lions pass defense.

LEAVE ‘EM

QB: I wouldn’t trust Rex Grossman to quarterback my fantasy team this week. He faces the Titans, who have only allowed four pass TD all season…JaMarcus Russell has a bad matchup against a Carolina defense that has held teams to 195 yards passing and 0.9 pass TD per game. Based on the way the Oakland offense looked last week, I don’t expect them to have much success against the Panthers…Whether it’s Ben Roethlisberger or Byron Leftwich, the matchup with a Colts pass defense that has allowed just two pass TD all year is a bad one…Gus Frerotte (vs. GB) and Matt Cassel (vs. BUF) are startable in a pinch, but neither guy has a particularly good matchup.

RB: Ryan Grant has been running better of late, but don’t expect him to do much against a Vikings rush defense that is 2nd in the league in yards allowed…He’s still startable due to his prowess in the pass game, but Steve Slaton will find the running room hard to find against the Ravens, who have allowed a league-best 64 yards and 0.1 rush TD per game…I wouldn’t start any of the Oakland or Seattle running backs in their matchups against the Panthers and Dolphins, respectively.

WR: I wouldn’t start Rashied Davis or Devin Hester this week against a strong Titans pass defense…Marvin Harrison is still startable, but he’s probably going to struggle against the #1 pass defense in the league…Again, he’s startable, but lower your expectations for Plaxico Burress. He faces an Eagles defense that has been pretty stingy against the pass this season…Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are probably going to struggle some this week. I’d still feel okay starting them, but if you have a great option, go ahead and use it. The Colts have been terrific against the pass, and the uncertainty at QB makes either guy a risky play.

DTBWW

Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire. Each week, you pick up a defense, usually playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

I would pick up the Cardinals (vs. SF), the Panthers (vs. OAK), the Jets (vs. STL), the Jaguars (@ DET), and the Chargers (vs. KC) – in that order – before either of these picks. Those teams aren’t available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues, so they don’t qualify.

This week’s picks:

MIA (vs. SEA)
HOU (vs. BAL)

Last week’s picks:

Browns: 37 PA + 2 SK + 1 Ret TD = 8 fantasy points
Rams: 34 PA + 1 SK = 1 fantasy point

The return TD saved the Browns pick, but I really blew it with the Rams. I thought they’d play better at home against a turnover-prone Kurt Warner.

Four emerging NBA storylines

It’s early in the NBA season, but these four things have jumped out at me during the first week of action.

1. The Lakers are dominating, but Lamar Odom isn’t thriving off the bench.
The Los Angeles Lakers are 4-0 and have won those four games by an average of 20.8 points. Granted, they’ve already played the Clippers twice, but the Nuggets gave them a test in Denver. The Lakers are doing it with defense, holding opponents to just 39.3% shooting and 85.0 points per game. (The Lakers are second in the league in both categories.) The team is off to a quick start despite so-so play from Andrew Bynum (8.3 points and 9.3 rebounds) and Lamar Odom (10.0 points and 6.5 rebounds), who isn’t exactly tearing it up off the bench. His numbers are boosted by a pretty nice 15-point, nine-rebound effort against the Clippers last night. Those are kind of numbers that Odom should be posting on a regular basis. The Lakers are getting nice play from Trevor Ariza, who has produced 9.8 points and 4.3 rebounds in just 20.5 minutes of play. If he continues his deft shooting from long range (71%), it won’t be long before he cracks the starting lineup. One of the underlying strategies heading into the season was to cut back on Kobe’s minutes, and thus far the plan has worked. He averaged 38.9 last season and is only playing 33.3 this season. His minutes are likely to rise as the Lakers play in more close games, but right now Phil Jackson has to be feeling pretty good about how his team has started.

2. The Bucks are finally playing some defense.
Last season, Milwaukee was last in the league in defensive field goal percentage (48.0%), but through five games, they’re holding opponents to 44.2% shooting, which is #14 in the league. New head coach Scott Skiles demands a lot from his players on that end of the court and so far the Bucks are responding with increased effort. The addition of Richard Jefferson certainly helps defensively, but he’s also getting it done on the other end of the court. RJ is averaging 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game, even though he’s only shooting 41% from the field. Without Michael Redd in the lineup, Jefferson had a great 32-point, nine-assist effort in a 112-104 overtime win against the Wizards Wednesday night. The Bucks are also getting great play from a couple of unexpected sources. Second-year point guard Ramon Sessions turned a few heads last year when he averaged 12.9 points and 12.4 assists (including a franchise record 24 dimes against the Bulls) over the last eight games of the season. The Mo Williams trade that brought Luke Ridnour to team looked more like a salary dump than a personnel move, but maybe the Bucks decided they had their point guard of the future in Sessions, who is averaging 17.3 points and 8.3 assists on the year. Second round pick Luc Mbah a Moute has outplayed first round pick Joe Alexander thus far. Skiles likes Mbah a Moute’s great defense and toughness, which he learned playing in Ben Howland’s system at UCLA for three years. He’s playing 25.2 minutes and is averaging 8.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game. The Bucks are 3-2, but have a rough eight-game stretch ahead of them that features the Celtics (twice), Suns, Cavs, Spurs, Nuggets and Jazz. If they can come through that gauntlet close to .500, we’ll know that the Bucks’ improvement is for real.

3. The Spurs were thisclose to starting 0-4.
If not for last night’s 55-point, 10-assist, seven-rebound effort by Tony Parker that helped the Spurs survive a double-overtime scare against the Timberwolves, San Antonio would be looking at an 0-4 start. They lost to the Suns at home by five and to the Blazers by one in Portland, but it was the 98-81 loss to the Mavs at home that was really surprising. The Spurs’ problem is two-fold. Collectively, they’re getting older and they miss Manu Ginobili. Parker (33.3 points, 7.3 assists) and Tim Duncan (27.0 points, 11.8 rebounds) are doing all they can to keep the Spurs in games, but they aren’t getting much help from their supporting cast, specifically Michael Finley (33% FG%) and Kurt Thomas (14% FG%). The Spurs are getting good play from fifth-year guard Roger Mason, who is averaging 15.8 points per game on 60.5% shooting. He’s been extremely hot from downtown, knocking down 64% of this three-point shots. Right now, it’s a three-man show and that’s it; no other Spur is averaging more than 7.5 points per game. The schedule gets a little easier over the next two weeks, with winnable games against the Heat, Knicks, Bucks, Kings and Clippers. San Antonio should be back above .500 before too long.

In my 2008 NBA Preview, I had the Hawks ranked #20 to start the season. After a 3-0 start, they should definitely be in the top half, maybe even in the top ten. I thought the loss of Josh Childress and the steady decline of Mike Bibby would outweigh whatever improvements this young team could make, but they have proven me wrong. The Hawks’ three wins are impressive. They beat Orlando by 14 points on the road, beat Philly at home by seven and then beat the Hornets in New Orleans by eight. Joe Johnson has led the team in scoring in all three games, and is averaging 28.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists on the year. Even more impressive, the Hawks have won despite poor shooting from Josh Smith (42%), Mike Bibby (34%) and Marvin Williams (39%). If Johnson is able to keep up this level of play, the Hawks shouldn’t have a problem making the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Long-term, I like the direction this franchise is headed, but they still need to find their point guard of the future. Mike Bibby is on the decline and Acie Law hasn’t done much in his young career to indicate that he’s the guy they should lean on. The Hawks will have plenty of cap space over the next couple of seasons, so they should be planning to find a point guard that can complement Johnson and forward/center Al Horford.

Trade “shares” of players at OneSeason.com

OneSeason.com has created a market where fans can buy and sell shares (with real money) of players in the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL. Supply and demand drive the price of each share, and value would theoretically rise as the player gets better. This would allow savvy fans to identify players that are about to break out and make a profit in the process.

I actually had a similar idea several years ago, but I was never able to get my head around how the cycle for each player would end. A player’s stock would continue to be traded into his retirement, but other than a potential Hall of Fame induction, there is no more “potential” to speak of. When investors buy shares of a company in the stock market, they effectively own a piece of the company. And since all companies are (presumably) going to continue to be profitable into the future, there is only a small risk that the company goes out of business leaving the shareholder with nothing. At OneSeason, a player’s stock will be expected to fall as he tops out in his career. He no longer has “potential” and, assuming the number of total investors stays the same, his stock price will fall.

So it seems to me that this market will be driven by young players that are rising stars. Once a player hits 27 or 28 years of age, he probably won’t improve his game/performance, so his share price would take a dump. Investors would start to notice this, so they would want to sell their shares earlier to avoid this decrease, so players would start to see a share price dip at 26 or even 25 years old.

It’s an interesting idea, but without a continual increase in the number of investors, I don’t know how a player’s share will sustain its value through the end of his career and into his retirement. This virtual certainty of a loss in value would seem to play havoc with share valuations throughout his career, making the entire market a bad idea on the whole. I think people could make money in spots, but they would be capitalizing on the losses of fellow fans.

Catching up with Josh Childress in Greece

Josh Childress raised a lot of eyebrows by signing a contract to play in Greece this season instead of staying with the Atlanta Hawks as a restricted free agent. He sits down with Mark Schwarz of ESPN’s “Outside the Lines” to talk about his experience thus far in Greece.

He also showed Schwarz his condo (which the team paid for) and drove him around town…

Since European teams have no salary cap, they aren’t bound by the same restrictions as NBA teams. Owners are willing to lose money on their team in order to win, so they are willing to pony up big bucks for quality NBA players like Childress. Playing for Europe isn’t for everyone, but Childress is something of a trailblazer for pulling the trigger on the move.

However, it sounds like he’ll return to the NBA after this season if he gets a good offer, which is likely. Childress’ contract is structured so that he can leave Greece after this season.

The entire column is a good read.

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