Author: John Paulsen (Page 548 of 937)

      Ty Lawson toe injury update (3/24)

      March 24, 2009 /

      From UNC Basketball, a quote from UNC assistant coach, Joe Holladay, commenting on North Carolina’s practice on Monday.

      “I saw him today. We didn’t do a whole lot today, but we put up a lot of shots. He participated in everything we did [in practice today]. He’s sore, but he always moves around like an old man … He’s moving around a little cautiously and is able to shoot the basketball, which is a good sign because there for a week he couldn’t even come up on his toe to shoot. So I think he is doing as well as can be expected.”

      It’s a good sign (for Tar Heel fans) that he was able to shoot after hearing a “popping” sound in his toe against LSU on Saturday.

      College Basketball, March Madness, News

      Bracket update and Sweet Sixteen preview

      March 23, 2009 /

      Those of you that followed my picks, or at least leveraged my analysis to some extent, should find that you’re still alive in your pool. Unless, of course, your pool is so big that even if all of your picks come in, there is someone who’s already ahead of you that has predicted the same outcome.

      I’m in three moderately sized pools – 26, 31 and 105 brackets – and I’m still very much alive in each one. Essentially, I need to get three of my Final Four picks – Pitt, UConn, Louisville and Gonzaga – to come in, and Pitt needs to win it all. Granted, with the way the Panthers are playing (and the Bulldogs, to a certain extent), I don’t feel great about my chances, but I’m still alive and that’s all you can ask for. If I had it to do all over again, I think I’d take UConn to win it all. They have been by far the most impressive of the top seeds. Still, if I’m right and it’s a Pitt/UConn final, you have to like the Panthers’ chances after already beating the Huskies twice this year.

      If you’ve been following our coverage, you’ll probably know that the 2+ point Sagarin favorites got off to a rough start in the first round (21-8, or 72%). Normally, this system hits at about an 85% rate, so it makes sense that it bounced back in a big way (12-0) in the second round, making it 33-8 (80%) through two rounds. (Keep in mind, even though the Sagarin ratings change throughout the tourney, I’m sticking with the pre-tourney ratings when calculating overall records because that’s all we have to go by when we’re filling out our brackets.)

      The Kansas/West Virginia game was a tough call, but I sure didn’t think that the Mountaineers would lose to Dayton. Since I entered three pools, I picked Kansas in one pool to go to the Elite Eight instead of West Virginia, and needless to say, my margin for error is a bit wider in that bracket.

      But enough about my brackets – let’s move on to the preview of the Sweet Sixteen. I’ll give my thoughts on each of the eight games, provide some statistics and maybe recommend a wager or two for the gamblers out there. Any Sagarin stats I refer to from here on out are the updated numbers, because I’m going to try to predict the future instead of measuring the past.

      THURSDAY’S GAMES

      #5-seed Purdue vs. #1-seed UConn (in Glendale, AZ)
      Tip-Off: 7:07 PM ET
      Sagarin Ratings: UConn (93.81), Purdue (87.70)
      Line: UConn -6.5
      The Boilermakers got off to a great start against Washington and held off a late run with some solid defense. Meanwhile, UConn has coasted, outscoring their two opponents 195-113. The Huskies will be challenged in this game because Purdue isn’t going to give up. They’re going to keep coming at you, so if you don’t stay focused for 40 minutes, you may be in trouble. But the bottom line is that UConn has more talent, and they should be a six- or seven-point favorite. Purdue’s best bet is to run an effective pick-and-roll, which is a good way to pull Hasheem Thabeet away from the basket and potentially get him into foul trouble. Thabeet will probably be covering JaJuan Johnson, so if he screens for E’Twaun Moore 20 or 30 times over the course of the game, the Bollermakers might be in business. The Sagarin difference and the line are about the same, so I wouldn’t recommend putting any hard-earned dollars on this game. UConn should be able to pull this one out, but unless the Huskies run them off the court, Purdue should have enough grit to keep it close.

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      College Basketball, March Madness, MLB

      Correcting Bill Simmons, Part 3: Bill is at it again

      March 23, 2009 /

      “The Sports Guy” is killing me. He’s at it again, harping on players that take too many three pointers even though they aren’t accurate from behind the stripe. I’ve already gone through this once, about a year ago, after Simmons slammed Tracy McGrady from shooting too many threes. Now, in his otherwise fine “Dumbleavy” diary/column, Bill’s targets are Baron Davis, Zach Randolph and…gulp…LeBron James.

      7:35: LeBron bricks a 3-pointer that leads to Thornton’s fast-break dunk. Clips by 17, timeout Cavs. Let the record show that (A) LeBron is a 32.5 percent career 3-point shooter, (B) he went 0-for-6 in this particular game and (C) he should be fined every time he takes one.

      6:54: Speaking of guys who should never shoot a 3, it’s Baron Davis! He just bricked one. If he told you that he’s a 32.3 percent career 3-point shooter and averaging 29.5 percent this season, then I told you that he takes five per game, would you believe me? You probably wouldn’t, right?

      4:35: Randolph (aka Z-Bo) sinks an open 3 that he never should have taken because he’s a career 28.9 long-distance shooter. Maybe we should make it like a driver’s license — if you dip under 35 percent through 250 career attempts, you’re suspended from shooting 3s for a year?

      Coaches live with guys shooting in the low 30’s from long range because…well…the shots are worth an extra point. It’s (almost) that simple.

      LeBron is shooting 33.1% from long range on the season. He’s shooting 53.6% from two-point range. For argument’s sake, let’s say that for 100 straight possessions, LeBron launches a three every time down the court. If his numbers bear out, he’s going to make 33 of them, scoring 99 points. That’s 0.99 points per possession. Now, let’s say he shoots a two-pointer for 100 straight possessions. He’s going to make 54 of them, so he’ll score 108 points on 100 possessions, or 1.08 points per possession.

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      NBA

      March Madness News & Notes: Sunday

      March 22, 2009 /

      48 games over four days is going to produce some drama, and Sunday’s action was no different…

      – #1 seed Pitt gave another scare to those that had the Panthers going to the Final Four (or in my case, all the way to a title) with a less than stellar effort against Oklahoma State. They continue to underwhelm, but they’ve been getting the job done in crunch time. They’re not going to be able to phone in a win against Xavier next week, however, so they better bring their “A” game.

      – Syracuse continues its hot run that started in the Big East tournament. Arizona State pushed them a bit in the second half but the Orangemen were able to limit James Harden by utilizing their patented zone defense. I like Harden, but he has a tendency to disappear at times. There were long stretches over the two tournament games where he faded into the background.

      – Dayton pushed Kansas for a while, but the Jayhawks were able to pull away in the second half. Cole Aldrich had an unlikely triple-double — 13 points, 20 rebounds and 10 blocks — to lead the way for Kansas. The Jayhawks have a nice inside-outside game with Aldrich and point guard Sherron Collins (25 points, seven rebounds).

      – Arizona ended #13-seed Cleveland State’s Cinderella run, but in a way, the Wildcats have been fitted with their own glass slipper. It will be interesting to see how Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill and Co. can fare against Louisville next week. Everyone knew that Arizona was capable of winning a couple of games in the tourney, but they’ll really be tested against the Cardinals.

      – Tough finish for Marquette, who had a chance to tie (or win the game with a three) when Lazar Hayward stepped on the end line when trying to inbound the ball. In his defense, the inbounds play wasn’t drawn out very well, so the guy he was thinking about throwing the ball too was “kind of” open. Anytime you put a player in a position of indecisiveness, bad things can happen. Hayward had a nice game (13 points, 12 rebounds), so the Golden Eagles wouldn’t have even been in that position without him. Down four, Marquette head coach Buzz Williams wanted a foul on Maurice Acker’s three-point attempt, but there wasn’t much contact there and Acker was the one who created it. Williams was acting like a petulant child on the sideline down the stretch. Basketball is the only sport where a grown man can throw a two-hour tantrum and get away with it.

      Be sure to check back tomorrow for a complete preview of the Sweet Sixteen.

      College Basketball, March Madness, News

      Fake controversy mars end of Western Kentucky-Gonzaga game

      March 21, 2009 /

      There was some controversy at the end of the Western Kentucky/Gonzaga game. WKU head coach Ken McDonald tried to call a timeout, but the refs didn’t see him. There was one Hilltopper — A.J. Slaughter — trying to call a timeout, but even he didn’t look like he was sure about what he was doing. He was facing the middle of the court sort of half-heartedly calling a timeout instead of looking around and trying to get the attention of the ref. Moreover, Jeremy Evans grabbed the ball out of the basket and inbounded the ball almost immediately, so the refs did their job by trying to get down court. If McDonald wants his team to call a timeout there, he needs to cover that in practice. The clock stops on a make at the end of the second half, so there’s no rush to get the ball in. The players on the court have time to take a breath and look to the bench. Since Evans inbounded the ball so quickly, there wasn’t time for that to happen.

      In the post game, Greg Anthony and Seth Davis argued about whether or not the refs were to blame. Anthony said, “Absolutely the officials missed it on this occasion. There’s no doubt about it. You’ve gotta have some assumption there as an official and still if that play continues, Seth, you’ve at least gotta give them the benefit of the doubt.”

      Davis disagreed by pointing out that there was only one player signaling for a timeout and he didn’t do it emphatically. Meanwhile, he said, they inbounded the ball right away and the refs are running down court.

      Davis is absolutely right in this case. The officials are trying to officiate the game. They aren’t looking at every player to see if they are halfheartedly calling a timeout. They’re not even supposed to be looking at the coaches to see if they want a timeout, especially when the team inbounds the ball immediately. Their focus is supposed to be on the action.

      The bottom line here is that the Hilltoppers were ill prepared for this scenario and that McDonald’s fault. Period.

      College Basketball, March Madness

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