Author: John Paulsen (Page 147 of 937)

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 5

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 26: Eli Manning  of the New York Giants passes during a game against the Tennessee Titans at New Meadowlands Stadium on September 26, 2010 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Since I’m releasing weekly positional rankings this season, it occurred to me that the Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em picks were a little repetitive and lack context without discussing the player-by-player rankings as well. So going forward, I’m going to use a similar format, but I’ll often be referring to my positional rankings so that readers can get a sense of how I feel that player will perform against his peers.

It’s probably easier to dive right in than try to explain what’s bouncing around in my head. As always, I will still focus on those players that you’ll only start under certain circumstances (i.e. good matchups), so if you have a stud, just go ahead and plug them in.

Three lower-end fantasy QB1s — Matt Ryan (#7), Eli Manning (#6) and Joe Flacco (#8) — all have very nice matchups this week. I have Eli the highest because the Texans have the worst pass defense in the league and that’s the game that has the best chance at turning into a shootout. I could see the ATL/CLE and BAL/DEN games devolving into lower-scoring affairs…The Jaguars have given up 304 yards and 2.3 pass TDs per game this season, which is why I have Ryan Fitzpatrick ranked at #9. Fitzy is available in a lot of leagues, so if you need a readily available sleeper at QB, look no further…I think I’m probably higher on Kyle Orton (#11) this week than most fantasy ‘experts.’ It’s true that he has a very tough matchup, but with Knowshon Moreno still sidelined, the Broncos are going to have to spread the Ravens out and throw the ball a lot. Orton faced two pretty tough pass defenses in the last two weeks (IND and TEN) and he shredded both of them. The guy is just in a groove right now…Shaun Hill (#12) has averaged 301 yards and 1.7 TDs over the past three weeks, but the Rams are playing pretty good defense at the moment. Still, Hill has done it against three solid defenses (PHI, MIN, GB), so he should have a nice week.

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GMs pick Lakers, Durant

Los Angeles Lakers' Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher (L-R), pose for photos during the basketball team's media day at Toyota Sports Center in El Segundo, California on Sept. 25, 2010. The Lakers will try to three-peat this season after winning back-to-back NBA championship titles. UPI/Jim Ruymen Photo via Newscom

Per ESPN…

The annual NBA.com GM Survey, released Wednesday, says the Lakers are the team to beat, according to 63 percent of the 28 general managers who responded.

The Miami Heat, who picked up James and Chris Bosh to join Dwyane Wade during the offseason, were picked to win by 33 percent of the respondents.

The Boston Celtics were the pick of 4 percent.

In the MVP race, Kevin Durant of the Oklahoma City Thunder was the overwhelming pick, getting 67 percent of the votes. Kobe Bryant of the Lakers was second with 26 percent.

James, last season’s league MVP, picked up just a single vote, as did Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic.

I suspect that with all the hullabaloo surrounding Miami’s new Super Friends, the Lakers are coming into the season very motivated. They are the two-time champs and are the team to beat, despite all the goings on in South Florida. I give them the edge for an NBA title, but if the two teams meet in the Finals, then it means that LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh have worked out whatever kinks there were and managed to get out of what is shaping up to be a brutal Eastern Conference playoff draw.

The MVP race will be interesting, especially with LeBron and Wade sharing the stage in Miami. Unless LeBron averages a triple-double, either player would be hard-pressed to win the award because voters could make a strong case for the other guy. That leaves Durant and Kobe as the front-runners.

Henry Abbott of TrueHoop digs deeper into the GM survey.

2010 Fantasy Football: Week 5 Rankings

ATLANTA - OCTOBER 03: Frank Gore  of the San Francisco 49ers breaks a tackle by Stephen Nicholas  of the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on October 3, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Updated 10/10/10

Below are my rankings for Week 5. I’m participating in a study as part of Fantasy Pros, where they keep track of the accuracy of many of the top fantasy ‘experts’ around the country. As of Week 4, I’m ranked #2 out of 39 experts that post their rankings at the site. If you utilize my advice on the Q&A, please take a moment to sign up at Fantasy Pros (it’s free) and rate me as an expert.

These rankings are for a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. I’ll update these rankings as the week goes on, so be sure to check back.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers (GB @ WAS)
2. Peyton Manning (IND vs. KC)
3. Philip Rivers (SD @ OAK)
4. Drew Brees (NO @ ARI)
5. Tony Romo (DAL vs. TEN)
6. Eli Manning (NYG @ HOU)
7. Matt Ryan (ATL @ CLE)
8. Joe Flacco (BAL vs. DEN)
9. Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF vs. JAC)
10. Kyle Orton (DEN @ BAL)
11. Matt Schaub (HOU vs. NYG)
12. Shaun Hill (DET vs. STL)
13. Donovan McNabb (WAS vs. GB)
14. Sam Bradford (STL @ DET)
15. Brett Favre (MIN @ NYJ)
16. Carson Palmer (CIN vs. TB)
17. Bruce Gradkowski (OAK vs. SD)
18. David Garrard (JAC @ BUF)
19. Mark Sanchez (NYJ vs. MIN)
20. Matt Cassel (KC @ IND)
21. Vince Young (TEN @ DAL)
22. Kevin Kolb (PHI @ SF)
23. Alex Smith (SF vs. PHI)
24. Josh Freeman (TB @ CIN)
25. Max Hall (ARI vs. NO)

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Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 5

San Diego Chargers safety Steve Gregory (28) celebrates his first quarter interception as Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (11) and running back LaRod Stephens-Howling (36) look on during their NFL football game in San Diego, California October 3, 2010. REUTERS/Mike Blake (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Updated 10/7/10 with the news that Jay Cutler would miss Week 5.

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 4 picks fared:

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What can we expect from Brandon Tate?

New England Patriots wide receiver Brandon Tate (19) charges upfield on a kick return in the second quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on November 8, 2009. The Patriots defeated the Dolphins 27-17. UPI/Matthew Healey Photo via Newscom

Michael Lombardi of the NFL Network writes that second-year Brandon Tate is poised to become a big contributor in the Pats’ offense:

And BrandonTate will be the deep threat for the Pats, and he is really an explosive talented player who will become a major contribuator now

I did one of these “what can we expect” posts for Bruce Gradkowski, so let’s take a closer look at Tate and try to estimate what kind of numbers he’ll put up the rest of the way.

After four games, Tate is 4th on the Pats in targets (14), but of all the team’s receivers, he figures to see the biggest boost in snaps since he’ll be replacing Randy Moss in the starting lineup. Let’s say that, in addition to his current 3.5 targets per game, he gets two-thirds of Moss’s targets (5.5 * 0.67). That’s about 7.2 per game. He’s currently converting 79% of his targets into receptions, which is unlikely to continue since he’ll probably be running deeper routes. Let’s say he converts at 60% and averages, say, 14.0 ypc (he’s currently averaging 12.3 ypc). That works out to 4.3 catches for 60 yards per game. So in a PPR league, he’s already at 10.3 points, and I’ve been pretty conservative in my estimates. And we haven’t even accounted for touchdowns or his explosive return game yet.

I asked our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, what he thinks of Tate and this is what he said:

he’s lean, but has good size…good quickness, but not overly fast…he’s not that great of a route-runner at this point in his career and relies too much on athletic ability…he can be elusive, but like I said – he’s more quick than fast…soft hands, good body control…Davone Bess is a good comparison, although I think Tate may be faster straight-line.

Projecting out 4.3 catches for 60 yards and let’s say 0.3 TD per game, and Tate looks like a 69-960-5 player over a full 16-game season. Last season, those were WR22-type numbers in PPR leagues.

In other words, pick him up.

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