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Author: John Paulsen (Page 126 of 937)
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.
As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.
I like Shaun Hill again this week given his matchup at home with the Pats’ 31st-ranked defense…Eli Manning is a little short on weapons, but the Jaguars have given up 246 yards and 2.0 pass TDs per game this season and have enough offense to keep the Giants throwing…Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s matchup isn’t as bad as it looks. The Steelers are 22nd against the pass, though they’ve only given up 1.1 TDs per game this season. Still, I think Buffalo’s plan will be to spread Pittsburgh out and throw, throw, throw…Sam Bradford figures to have another solid outing against a Denver defense that has given up an average of 2.0 pass TDs per game on the year.
I found out late last night that I once again remained on top of the FantasyPros Accuracy Rankings. I finished a strong #7 in Week 11 and extended my lead over the second- and third-place experts.
Five more weeks…can I hold on?
Below you’ll find my rankings for Week 12. Be sure to check back as the week wears on because I’ll be updating them as news trickles in.
Updated Sunday, Nov. 28.
If the FantasyPros rankings widget isn’t come through, click below to see the rankings in text format.
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.
Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)
Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.
To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
Let’s see how my Week 11 picks fared:
What am I looking at?
Below you’ll see a table for each position with a list of team names on the left. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup. On the far right, the column “R16” shows the average SOS for the remaining weeks.
It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.
How do I use these tables?
Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting Fred Jackson and Ronnie Brown. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if Jackson has a great matchup and Brown has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if Jackson just has a mediocre matchup while Brown has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with Jackson.
Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.
Note: I apologize for the size of the text, but there really is no other way for me to present this data, at least not at this point.
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