Author: Anthony Stalter (Page 48 of 1503)

Fade Material: NFL Week 14 Predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert looks to throw the ball downfield against the Houston Texans in the first half at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas on October 30, 2011. The Texans defeated the Jaguars 24-14. UPI/Aaron M. Sprecher

Turns out I do have a pulse – who knew!

After weeks of bad to horrendous predictions, I’ve started to turn things around with my NFL picks. After going 3-1 in Week 12, I followed that performance with another 3-1 Sunday in Week 13 as the Texans, Chiefs and Saints all covered. (My lone loss was the Bengals, who forgot to get off the bus in Pittsburgh.) The latest 3-1 effort lifted my season record to 24-25-2. Let’s see if I can’t get over that .500 mark so I can save some of my dignity.

Texans @ Bengals, 1:00PM ET
The Bengals burned me last Sunday but I’m a glutton for punishment so I’m back for more this week. I think at some point the Texans won’t be able to overcome not having guys like Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams in the lineup. T.J. Yates outperformed a very shaky Matt Ryan last Sunday in Houston’s 17-10 victory over Atlanta, but he also didn’t pay for his biggest mistake (an interception returned for a touchdown that would have given the Falcons a second-half lead) because of a penalty on corner Dunta Robinson. I don’t point that out to criticize Yates because the bottom line is he helped the Texans notch a very huge win. But again, at some point Yates will play like a fifth-round rookie and all of these injuries that Houston has endured will eventually catch up to them. Methinks that point will be today in Cincinnati. The Bengals need to slow Arian Foster and Ben Tate to have a shot and I think they will. Their run defense has been consistent all season as long as Andy Dalton and the offense comes up with a couple of big plays, I like Cincinnati to notch a huge home win.
THE PICK: BENGALS –3

Falcons @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
This is what I wrote in my Week 13 recap last Sunday: You heard it here first: “The Panthers will beat the Falcons next Sunday in Carolina. The records say different but there’s not that big of a gap between Carolina and Atlanta right now. And with two of the Falcons’ top three corners out with injuries, Cam Newton should have a field day throwing the ball.” The two corners that I was referencing was Brent Grimes (knee) and Kelvin Hayden (toe), who will miss their second and third-straight games, respectively. With the inexperienced Dominique Franks and Christopher Owens starting in Grimes and Hayden’s places, I like Carolina to pull off the small upset.
THE PICK: PANTHERS +1

Bucs @ Jaguars, 1:00PM ET
This is the week that the Bucs get off the schnide. The Jaguars aren’t explosive offensively thanks to Blaine Gabbert and while their defense has kept them in most games, they’re extremely banged up in the secondary. Tampa Bay lacks explosion on offense itself, but I just think the Bucs are due. Some bettors will hesitate laying three points on a bad Tampa team that’s playing on the road, but this is a game where the Bucs could wind up taking all of their frustrations out on Jacksonville and cruising. I just think Tampa is due.
THE PICK: BUCS –3

Raiders @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
Given how poorly the Raiders played in Miami last Sunday, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to take Oakland this Sunday against a juggernaut like Green Bay. But then again, I don’t have a ton of sense so I’m going to do it anyway. The Raiders are in a dogfight with the Broncos in the AFC West so they can ill-afford not to play well in Green Bay today. The Packers aren’t playing like they’re taking anyone lightly but I could see their defense allowing the Raiders to keep things within 10 points. I just think 11.5 is too much to be giving a team in Oakland that could wind up winning its division.
THE PICK: RAIDERS +11.5

Pujols rejects $275 million offer from Marlins to sign 10-year deal with Angels

St. Louis Cardinals Albert Pujols swings, hitting a double in the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on September 3, 2011. St. Louis won the game 6-4. UPI/Bill Greenblatt

To many, it was shocking that Albert Pujols decided to leave familiar territory in St. Louis and sign with the Angels on Thursday. But maybe even more shocking is the fact that the Halos’ offer wasn’t even the biggest that Pujols received.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Marlins were actually the highest bidders for Pujols, who will earn $254 million over the life of his new 10-year contract with the Angels. Miami offered the slugger $275 million but Pujols ultimately decided to head out to Southern California, which is presumably where he’ll finish his career.

With ownership trying to attract fans to a brand new stadium in Miami, the Marlins have been linked to many big names since the start of the winter meetings. They’ve already locked up shortstop Jose Reyes to a new six-year deal worth $106 million and also signed closer Heath Bell to a three-year, $27 million contract. In the end though, the club couldn’t catch the biggest fish of all (no pun intended), as Pujols heads West to play with the Halos.

The Angels seemingly came out of nowhere to not only outbid the Cardinals but also impress Pujols enough for him to take less money to sign in Southern Cal. Alex Rodriguez was the only player to secure a contract worth more than $200 million before Pujols signed his deal, although it’ll be interesting to see how much Prince Fielder eventually signs for once he chooses a destination. He’s now the most attractive name left on the market, and should receive plenty of high-priced offers over the next couple of days.

As for the Cardinals, they fell nearly $50 million shy of the Angels’ offer for Pujols, who said back in spring training of last year that he wasn’t going to take a hometown discount to stay in St. Louis. His previous contract was very club-friendly, so the Cards knew they would have to pony up this time around if they wanted to keep his services. In the end, it obviously wasn’t enough. Now the defending World Series Champions are left to pick up the pieces from an offseason that not only saw their long-time manager Tony La Russa retire, but also their best player and most marketable star leave for a bigger contract.

2011 NFL Week 14 Primer

Denver Broncos Tim Tebow throws against the New York Jets during the second half at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver on November 17, 2011. Denver came from behind to defeat New York 17-14 on a 20-yard touchdown run by quarterback Tim Tebow UPI/Gary C. Caskey

Usually I would break down every NFL game on the schedule for that week, but I don’t even think Buccaneers and Jaguars fans care about Bucs-Jags, the “War on the Shore” this Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!

Thus, I’ll roll out a different format this week with only four games remaining on the regular season schedule. Hopefully you’ll enjoy it but if you don’t, well, it’s too late now. The words are already sprawled across your screen…

MARQUE MATCHUP: Giants vs. Cowboys, 8:20PM ET
Neither of these teams seem very motivated to win the NFC East right now. While the Cowboys have won four of their last five games, they barely beat Washington in overtime, had to hang on to beat Miami in the closing minutes, and lost outright to Arizona last Sunday in extra frames. The Giants, meanwhile, showed great effort in their 38-35 loss to the Packers last weekend but as Tom Coughlin said, the G-Men are beyond morale victories at this point. Morale victories won’t get them a division crown and a chance to make it back to the Super Bowl. So which team will step up this Sunday in Dallas? Will it be the Cowboy team that won four in a row before laying an egg against the Cardinals? Or will the Giants build off their solid effort last Sunday and force another tie with the Cowboys in the division? The way I look at it, you could flip a coin. It’s hard what to make of these teams because while the talent is certainly there, the execution sometimes isn’t.

THE POTENTIAL (NOTEWORTHY) UPSET: Panthers over Falcons, 1:00PM ET
Atlanta has a couple of underlying issues that could be its undoing yet again this week. First and foremost, Michael Turner isn’t 100-percent healthy. He’s been dealing with a groin injury and as I wrote last Sunday following the Week 13 games, he ran like he had nine tons of cement tied around his legs. If he’s slowed again this week, the Falcons’ offense may struggle to find balance, which affects Matt Ryan and the passing game greatly. Furthermore, two of Atlanta’s top three corners (Brent Grimes and Kelvin Hayden) are out again this week due to injuries. With the way Cam Newton continues to sling the ball around the field, don’t be surprised if Carolina pulls off the upset this Sunday at home. Granted, the Panthers still have plenty of issues that the Falcons can exploit. Their run defense is soft and their pass coverage is below average. But again, if Atlanta can’t get Turner going and the Falcons once again allow an inferior opponent to stay in the game, they could be primed for an upset.

THE GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY: Denver Broncos
Which team has a golden opportunity to improve its standing in its division and playoff race? Look no further than Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos, who host a wounded Bears team at 4:05PM ET on Sunday. Chicago will be without quarterback Jay Cutler and running back Matt Forte, making it difficult to generate points against an already stout Denver defense. Thrown in the fact that the Broncos are at home while the Raiders head to Green Bay to take on the undefeated Packers, and Denver arguably stands to benefit the most from this week’s schedule. Obviously the Broncos still have to beat the Bears and the Raiders have to succumb to the Pack. But with both Denver and Oakland tied at 7-5 in the AFC West, this is a perfect chance for the Broncos to seize first place in the division and take control of their own destiny.

PUT UP OR SHUT UP: Tennessee Titans
“Put up or shut up” could apply to several different teams. The Bengals certainly have a “put up or shut up” game this Sunday at home against the Texans. Houston is banged up on both sides of the ball and if Cincinnati wants to hold onto the number sixth seed in the AFC, then it better find a way to win. (Especially considering the Jets have a very winnable game against the Chiefs and are also in the running for a Wild Card spot in the conference.) The Falcons also need to prove that they can rebound from their loss to the Texans last week and both the Lions and Bears need to step up to prove that they’re going to remain in the NFC playoff picture. But looking at all of the games, the Titans stand out to me as the team that has the most to prove this weekend. The Saints are easily one of the top 5 teams in the NFL, if not top 3. They’ve also looked like a different team on the road this year than at home, so if the Titans wanted to play them anywhere, they’d want to take on New Orleans in Tennessee. Guess what? They have their shot this Sunday. The Titans are only two games behind the Texans in the AFC South but there’s also only four games remaining. Houston could lose this Sunday in Cincinnati but if Tennessee can’t rise to the challenge and pull off the upset against New Orleans, then the Titans’ odds of catching the Texans become slim and none. But this game versus the Saints is more than just about trying to catch Houston. For Tennessee, this is a measuring stick for what you are as a football team. Do the Titans belong in the mix of legit contenders or are they going to be blow out by a vastly superior team? It’ll be interesting to see if Tennessee raises its level of play.

2011 NFL Week 14 Point Spreads & Odds

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton celebrates after the Panthers score against the Washington Redskins in the second half of an NFL football game in Charlotte, North Carolina on October 23, 2011. Carolina won 33-20 UPI/Nell Redmond .

Four spreads of note:

Giants +3 @ Cowboys, 8:30PM ET, Sunday
This game is the ultimate crapshoot; it could play out in a variety of different ways, none of which would be surprising. But if you’re looking for value, I almost always go with the underdog when it comes to betting on NFC East teams. When NFC East teams are expected to win against an inferior opponent, for whatever reason they seem to underachieve. Examples of this include the Cowboys’ loss to the Cardinals last week, or their failed cover against the Dolphins and Redskins, respectively, in previous games. The Giants also lost to the Seahawks at home, failed to cover against the Dolphins at home, and lost the Eagles as a 6-point favorite in Week 11. On the flip side, the Giants covered and won against the Eagles (Week 2), Patriots (Week 9) and Packers (Week 13) as underdogs of seven points or more. Granted, New York was also crushed by New Orleans in Week 12 but my point is this: NFC East teams often represent value when they’re the underdog and are good fade material when they’re supposed to win. I don’t have hard data here so take this simple approach with a grain of salt. But again, from a pure value standpoint it sure seems like NFC East teams rise to the challenge when they’re the dog.

Raiders +11 @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
As I’ve written many times on this site: It’s Green Bay and then everyone else. And with how poorly Oakland played last Sunday in Miami, there will be plenty of bettors that look at the spread in this game and lay the 11 points without hesitation. But let’s keep in mind that the Raiders’ backs are against the wall here. They’re now tied with Denver for first place in the AFC West and while they play undefeated Green Bay this Sunday, the Broncos have a very winnable home game against a Jay Cutler and Matt Forte-less Chicago team. Thus, we’re probably going to see Oakland’s best effort. With the amount of injuries that the Raiders accumulated in the past month, it was only a matter of time before they suffered a letdown like they did last weekend against the Dolphins. Thus, I’m thinking they bounce back strong this Sunday and at the very least stay within 10 points of the Pack.

49ers -3.5 @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
This is a game you look at and you say, “49ers are only -3.5? Sign me up.” But Arizona proved last Sunday in its win over Dallas that it hasn’t given up on the season despite the fact that the playoffs remain a longshot. The Rams, on the other hand, gave up weeks ago and bettors will probably rush to the window to lay coin on a Niners team that routed St. Louis by 26 points last week. What I’m saying is that this is your classic trap game. Oddsmakers claim that they don’t lay traps for bettors but why is this game only 3.5? San Fran is 10-2 this season while Arizona is 5-7. Even with home field advantage factored in, the line still seems too low. I’m not suggested that the Cards will win outright but something tells me oddsmakers are banking on this being a field goal game either way.

Falcons -3 @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
I wrote this in my recap of Week 13 and I’ll mention it again seeing as how it relates to this article: I don’t think there’s that wide of a gap between the Falcons and Panthers right now. On paper, Atlanta has better overall talent. But on paper, Atlanta had better overall talent than Houston and it lost 17-10 despite the fact that Andre Johnson suffered another hamstring injury in the second half and T.J. Yates started for the Texans at quarterback. The Falcons will once again be without top cornerback Brent Grimes and nickel back Kelvin Hayden, which means Dominique Franks and Chris Owens will receive plenty of looks this Sunday from Cam Newton. Given the inexperience of Franks and Owens, they become a weakness that Newton may exploit. There’s always value in a home dog and given the injuries the Falcons are currently dealing with on both sides of the ball, I’d give Carolina a long look this Sunday.

2011 NFL Week 14 Odds:

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Five Questions for Week 14 in the NFL

Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett (L) talks with quarterback Tony Romo in the second half of their NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks in Arlington, Texas November 6, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Stone (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Every Tuesday I’ll take a look at the five biggest questions surrounding NFL teams for that week. In Week 14 I tackle the decimated Bears and their quarterback situation, the race in the NFC East and of course, the Tim Tebow-led Broncos.g

1. Which team will step up in the NFC East?
Last week I wrote that it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cowboys choke with a golden opportunity to take a two-game lead over the Giants in the NFC East. They were on their way to Arizona to play a very beatable Cardinals team while New York hosted the undefeated Packers, so naturally the Cowboys lost (when Jason Garrett essentially froze his own kicker) and didn’t create more separation between them and the Giants. That’s okay though, because the Sunday Night Football tilt this week becomes an even bigger affair because if the Giants win, then things will be tied again in the division. It’s tough to know what to make of either team. The Cowboys are healthier and have a slew of explosive weapons on offense to exploit a banged up New York defense. But Dallas always seems to kill itself with dumb mistakes and penalties. For all intents and purposes, they should beat the Giants at home this weekend and build a two-game cushion with just three games left to play. But it’s always a crapshoot when it comes to the ‘Boys.

2. What will the Bears do at quarterback?
Following Caleb Hanie’s brutal performance against the Chiefs on Sunday and the injury that will sideline Matt Forte for the next 2-3 weeks (if not the rest of the regular season), the Bears are now entertaining the idea of signing a free agent quarterback. Donovan McNabb is available and Brett Favre seems ready to whore himself out again, but will Chicago actually pull the trigger? The terminology in Mike Martz’s system is supposedly hard to grasp in a short amount of time so it would appear as though Hanie is still the Bears’ best option under center. But Chicago can’t keep rolling him out there every Sunday only to watch him produce a field goal worth of offense. It would, at the very least, make sense to sign McNabb and see how much he can learn in a week. Maybe he can produce just enough points to win while the defense and Devin Hester does the rest. Nobody is saying McNabb is a shoe-in to save Chicago’s season but if the playoffs started today the Bears would own the fifth seed in the NFC. GM Jerry Angelo owes it to his team to at least see if he can catch lightning in a bottle.

3. Will the Broncos take control of their own destiny?
As noted in question No. 2, the Bears are in serious trouble. Not only is Jay Cutler out for the rest of the year, but Matt Forte won’t play this Sunday and might miss the remainder of the season as well. Caleb Hanie couldn’t generate more than a field goal last week against Kansas City, which has an underrated defense but zero offense. Denver has an even better defensive unit and an offense that has made clutch plays with the game on the line for the past four weeks. Thus, the Broncos should win this week at home against Chicago. But there are many people that are still waiting for the wheels to fall off the Tim Tebow joy ride. It doesn’t seem that long ago that Detroit traveled to Denver and absolutely harassed Tebow into huge mistakes in a blowout victory. The Bears still own a relenting defensive unit that’s capable of putting its beleaguered offense in good field position, or scoring themselves with opportunistic plays. Thus, it’s important for Denver to continue to take things one game at a time. With Oakland in Green Bay this Sunday taking on the undefeated Packers, the Broncos have a massive opportunity to control their own destiny from here on out with a victory over the Bears.

4. Which Wild Card hopefuls will start to emerge from the pack?
Outside of the Steelers who seemingly have the fifth seed in the AFC sewn up, there are a lot of flaws when you look at the Wild Card contenders in each conference. In the AFC, the Bengals were just trounced by the Steelers and still have to play the Ravens one more time. Although the Titans have won two in a row, they nearly lost to the hapless Bucs two weeks ago and host powerhouse New Orleans this Sunday. Miami proved last week that Oakland has a couple of underlying issues, namely its run defense and lack of explosives offensively. The Jets have experience making late-season runs but it’s hard to trust Mark Sanchez not to muck things up over these next four weeks. In the NFC, the Bears’ issues are well documented and the Lions look like a team ready to implode thanks to a lack of composure and injuries. The Falcons have more than enough talent on both sides of the ball to secure a postseason berth but their offense has been stuck in mud all season and if the Giants can’t beat the Cowboys this Sunday, then it’s hard envisioning them playing past Week 17. Will somebody please step up?

5. Can the Chargers get back into the AFC West race?
The focus in the AFC West has largely been on the Broncos and Raiders, which makes sense given how their odds of winning the division are the best among the four teams. But while everyone continues to analyze, dissect, and agonize how Tim Tebow continues to win despite usually only playing one quarter of good football, I have a sinking suspicion that the Chargers aren’t finished quite yet. Maybe that’s because we’ve seen Norv Turner’s teams underachieve before, only to swoop in during the final weeks and pull a postseason berth right out from under someone. Granted, it came against a decimated Jacksonville secondary but Turner’s offense was firing on all cylinders Monday night. For the first time in over a month Philip Rivers played with confidence and was making throws that he used to make on a weekly basis in 2010. Winning breads confidence and when a team plays with confidence it becomes dangerous. Given how the Chargers still have to play Baltimore, Detroit, and Oakland to finish out the season, it’s probably too little too late for Rivers and Co. But if their defense overachieves and the offense finally starts playing with some consistency, you never know how things will play out down the stretch.

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