Yesterday, I ran through the first round using Dean Olivers Four Factors of winning. For an overview, click here.
SECOND ROUND
#1 Chicago vs. #4 Orlando
| TEAM | PACE | eFG% | TOR | ORR | FT/FGA | eFG%a | TORa | DRR | FT/FGAa | OEFF | DEFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 92.9 | .501 | .135 | .294 | .227 | .463 | .136 | .762 | .222 | 105.5 | 97.4 |
| ORL | 93.4 | .521 | .145 | .261 | .227 | .475 | .134 | .769 | .219 | 105.5 | 98.9 |
| -.020 | .010 | .033 | .000 | .012 | .002 | -.007 | -.003 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
These two teams are pretty evenly matched, with the Bulls leading in four categories to the Magic’s three. Chicago is a little better defensively and has home court advantage. I think point guard play will be the difference in this series and while I do like Jameer Nelson, he’s no Derrick Rose.
#2 Miami vs. #3 Boston
| TEAM | PACE | eFG% | TOR | ORR | FT/FGA | eFG%a | TORa | DRR | FT/FGAa | OEFF | DEFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 93.3 | .524 | .135 | .252 | .279 | .475 | .126 | .755 | .223 | 109.3 | 100.7 |
| BOS | 92.4 | .519 | .145 | .211 | .235 | .469 | .148 | .747 | .235 | 104.0 | 97.8 |
| .005 | .010 | .041 | .044 | -.006 | -.022 | .008 | .012 | 5.3 | -2.9 |
Miami is better in all but two categories, and the Heat’s advantage in offensive rebounding might offset the Celtics’ ability to create turnovers. The C’s are a little better defensively, but the Heat have been much better on offense and Miami has home court advantage. It looks like Boston’s nice run ends here.
#1 San Antonio vs. #4 Oklahoma City
| TEAM | PACE | eFG% | TOR | ORR | FT/FGA | eFG%a | TORa | DRR | FT/FGAa | OEFF | DEFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS | 94.6 | .527 | .128 | .249 | .229 | .491 | .126 | .747 | .190 | 109.4 | 102.8 |
| OKC | 95.3 | .501 | .131 | .274 | .299 | .493 | .129 | .736 | .228 | 108.6 | 104.0 |
| .026 | .003 | -.025 | -.070 | .002 | -.003 | .011 | .038 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
Based on both teams’ entire body of work, the Spurs are the favorites, but with Ginobili dinged up and the Spurs struggles down the stretch, I like the Thunder to advance. I may be picking the Spurs’ demise a season too early, but with Kendrick Perkins defending Tim Duncan down low, I think OKC has a chance to pull the upset.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #6 Portland
| TEAM | PACE | eFG% | TOR | ORR | FT/FGA | eFG%a | TORa | DRR | FT/FGAa | OEFF | DEFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 93.3 | .502 | .123 | .292 | .228 | .477 | .128 | .723 | .181 | 107.9 | 101.3 |
| POR | 90.4 | .486 | .126 | .295 | .224 | .510 | .154 | .720 | .231 | 105.6 | 104.2 |
| .016 | .003 | -.003 | .004 | .033 | -.026 | .003 | .050 | 2.3 | 2.9 |
The Blazers are quite a bit better at forcing turnovers, but that’s the only Eight Factors advantage they hold. They could push this to six or seven games if the Lakers still are playing disintrested, but I don’t see Portland pulling the upset.
CONFERENCE FINALS
#1 Chicago vs. #2 Miami
| TEAM | PACE | eFG% | TOR | ORR | FT/FGA | eFG%a | TORa | DRR | FT/FGAa | OEFF | DEFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 92.9 | .501 | .135 | .294 | .227 | .463 | .136 | .762 | .222 | 105.5 | 97.4 |
| MIA | 93.3 | .524 | .135 | .252 | .279 | .475 | .126 | .755 | .223 | 109.3 | 100.7 |
| -.023 | .000 | .042 | -.052 | .012 | .010 | .007 | .001 | -3.8 | 3.3 |
The Heat are a little better offensively and the Bulls are a little better on defense. Chicago has the advantage in four categories, while two are basically tossups. The Heat certainly could win this series, but Tom Thibodeau’s defense is built to stop scorers like LeBron and Dwyane Wade and I think the Bulls have a better handle on what they want to do in crunch time. Chicago advances and criticism of the Heat continues.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #4 Oklahoma City Thunder
| TEAM | PACE | eFG% | TOR | ORR | FT/FGA | eFG%a | TORa | DRR | FT/FGAa | OEFF | DEFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 93.3 | .502 | .123 | .292 | .228 | .477 | .128 | .723 | .181 | 107.9 | 101.3 |
| OKC | 95.3 | .501 | .131 | .274 | .299 | .493 | .129 | .736 | .228 | 108.6 | 104.0 |
| .001 | .008 | .018 | -.071 | .016 | -.001 | -.013 | .047 | -0.7 | 2.7 |
I’d love to pick the Thunder here but the Lakers are just too talented and too experienced. However, if Andrew Bynum is less than 90%, the series could easily tilt in OKC’s favor. Barring that, I think the Lakers length trumps the Thunder’s bigs.
NBA FINALS
#1 Chicago vs. #2 Los Angeles Lakers
| TEAM | PACE | eFG% | TOR | ORR | FT/FGA | eFG%a | TORa | DRR | FT/FGAa | OEFF | DEFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 92.9 | .501 | .135 | .294 | .227 | .463 | .136 | .762 | .222 | 105.5 | 97.4 |
| LAL | 93.3 | .502 | .123 | .292 | .228 | .477 | .128 | .723 | .181 | 107.9 | 101.3 |
| -.001 | -.012 | .002 | -.001 | .014 | .008 | .039 | -.041 | -2.4 | 3.9 |
The Lakers hold a significant advantage in two categories (TOR and FT/FGAa) while the Bulls are quite a bit better in three categories (eFG%a, TORa and DRR), all defensive. Can you imagine Kobe going for his sixth title against his hero’s old team, the Chicago Bulls? Thibodeau is plenty familiar with the Lakers since he sat on the Celtics’ bench two of the last three Finals. Neither Kobe nor Pau Gasol played particularly well against the Bulls during the regular season so I think Chicago will have enough to end the Lakers’ title run.
