The Clemson Tigers were impressive last night in their 70-52 rout of UAB. In Monday’s bracket column, I picked Clemson to beat UAB, but to lose in the first round against West Virginia. Since they won so impressively, I decided to take another look at the updated Sagarin and Pomeroy numbers to see if they changed my opinion of the game.
Below is a table with the updated numbers, including updated spreads from World Sports Exchange.
| # | Team A | Team B | Sag Adv | Pom % | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | UT-San Antonio | Alabama State | 6.9 | 73.1% | -3 |
| 4 | USC | VCU | 5.4 | 71.5% | -4 |
| 5 | Ohio State | UT-San Antonio | 27.0 | 99.0% | |
| 6 | George Mason | Villanova | -2.1 | 49.7% | -1 |
| 7 | West Virginia | Clemson | 1.4 | 48.9% | |
| 8 | Kentucky | Princeton | 13.9 | 90.3% | -13 |
| 9 | Xavier | Marquette | -2.1 | 47.3% | -2.5 |
| 10 | Syracuse | Indiana State | 13.4 | 90.2% | -12 |
| 11 | Washington | Georgia | 8.1 | 73.1% | -5.5 |
| 12 | North Carolina | LIU | 13.5 | 91.1% | -17.5 |
| 13 | Duke | Hampton | 25.2 | 98.6% | -23 |
| 14 | Michigan | Tennessee | 1.1 | 56.9% | +2 |
| 15 | Arizona | Memphis | 8.8 | 78.8% | -5.5 |
| 16 | Texas | Oakland | 10.5 | 87.9% | -9.5 |
| 17 | Cincinnati | Missouri | 0.9 | 56.5% | PICK |
| 18 | Connecticut | Bucknell | 10.6 | 84.5% | -10 |
| 19 | Temple | Penn State | 1.2 | 50.7% | -2.5 |
| 20 | San Diego State | Northern Colorado | 14.5 | 93.4% | -15.5 |
| 21 | Kansas | Boston University | 23.2 | 97.5% | -22.5 |
| 22 | UNLV | Illinois | -0.7 | 47.5% | -2 |
| 23 | Vanderbilt | Richmond | 2.8 | 56.8% | -2.5 |
| 24 | Louisville | Morehead State | 12.5 | 88.1% | -9.5 |
| 25a | Georgetown | USC | 3.1 | 56.0% | |
| 25b | Georgetown | VCU | 8.6 | 76.2% | |
| 26 | Purdue | St. Peter’s | 17.6 | 93.0% | -14 |
| 27 | Texas A&M | Florida State | -0.1 | 48.8% | -1 |
| 28 | Notre Dame | Akron | 14.5 | 92.0% | -14 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh | NC-Asheville | 18.1 | 95.1% | |
| 30 | Butler | Old Dominion | 1.5 | 50.2% | +2 |
| 31 | Kansas State | Utah State | -0.7 | 40.4% | -2.5 |
| 32 | Wisconsin | Belmont | 3.7 | 60.8% | -5 |
| 33 | St. John’s | Gonzaga | -0.2 | 47.7% | -1.5 |
| 34 | BYU | Wofford | 12.4 | 85.9% | -8.5 |
| 35 | UCLA | Michigan State | -1.7 | 44.4% | +1.5 |
| 36 | Florida | UC-Santa Barbara | 11.6 | 89.3% | -12.5 |
Looking at yesterday’s numbers, West Virginia’s Sagarin advantage dropped from 2.4 to 1.4, while the Pomeroy % dropped from 52.7% to 48.9%, so clearly the Tigers’ win last night had an effect.
This game is now officially a toss-up, but I’m still going to go with West Virginia. Clemson is 0-4 this season against Top 25 Sagarin teams and WVU is #19. Plus, Clemson has to fly to Florida and turn around and play on Thursday at 12:15 PM ET, which is the first game of the day.
However, those of you in pools that reward upsets may want to give Clemson a hard look. Before trouncing UAB last night, the Tigers were poised to pull the upset against North Carolina in the tournament before falling in overtime. I’m worried about the quick turnaround to an early game, but they’re playing good basketball right now and this is a very tight game. Given the seed disparity (5/12), it is probably worth rolling the dice on Clemson in a pool that rewards upsets.
