If you want to see my record as a March Madness prognosticator along with an outline of my methodology, click here. If you just want to see my picks, read on.
I wouldn’t normally pick the play-in games, but this season there are a pair of #12 seeds and a pair of #11 seeds that are playing on Tuesday and Wednesday for the right to advance to the first round on Thursday and Friday.
All four games are fairly easy to pick since they all of spreads of 3+ in Sagarin rating. My four winners are NC-Asheville, Clemson, UT-San Antonio and USC.
Most of the picks are made by taking the Sagarin/Pomeroy favorite. Here are the first round games that are tighter statistically along with the reasoning for my picks.
George Mason/Villanova
Nova is a 1.8-point Sagarin favorite, but George Mason is a very slight Pomeroy favorite. Basically, it’s a statistical toss-up. I’m going with George Mason because Villanova has lost five straight games and 10 of their last 15. Wow. The Giant Killers blog likes the Patriots as well, even though this doesn’t technically qualify as a GK game.
Michigan/Tennessee
These are two pretty similar teams statistically. Michigan is a 1.1-point Sagarin favorite and Pomeroy says they have a 57% chance of winning this game. I do wonder if Tennessee’s season had gone differently had Bruce Pearl not been suspended. This is a toss-up, so I’ll go with the Wolverines, who have played a little better of late (9-4 in last 13 games).
Cincinnati/Missouri
The Bearcats are a 1.0-point Sagarin favorite and Pomeroy projects Cincy as having a 57% chance to win. The Tigers are 1-4 in their last five games and their one win was a tight one against a bad Texas Tech team. Meanwhile, Cincy has gone 6-2 in their last eight, with wins over Georgetown (twice), Louisville and Marquette.
Temple/Penn State
This is another tough game to call. Temple is a 1.2-point Sagarin favorite and a very slight (51%) Pomeroy favorite. The Owls are 10-2 in February and March with the two losses to Duke and Richmond. I’m going with Temple.
UNLV/Illinois
The Giant Killer blog has the Runnin’ Rebels as the #2 GK, but this isn’t really a Giant Killer game since UNLV is technically the favorite, at least seed-wise. Illinois is a very slight favorite (0.5 Sagarin, 52% Pomeroy), but I’m going to go with UNLV since the GK metrics like the Rebs.
Texas A&M/Florida St.
The Seminoles haven’t beaten a tournament team since Jan 12 when they beat Duke. That was a nice win, but they are 0-3 since then. Meanwhile, the Aggies are 3-4 against tournament teams over the same span.
Butler/Old Dominion
The Bulldogs are a slight 1.2-point Sagarin favorite, but Old Dominion is a slight Pomeroy favorite (51%). I don’t like to pick against Butler because they’re very well coached, but the Giant Killer blog says that they are vulnerable and that ODU is the #3 GK in the field. Also, the Monarchs have the geographical advantage, as Washington D.C. is just 3.5 hours from campus.
Kansas State/Utah State
The Aggies are actually a slight (0.8-point) Sagarin favorite, but a fairly hefty Pomeroy favorite (60%) due to their elite level defense. The GK blog lists them as the #10 Giant Killer, so this is a very live #12-seed. Plus, I just don’t like Frank Martin stomping around on the sideline. My three-year-old makes the same face when I take his toy away.
St. John’s/Gonzaga
With this game in Denver, the Bulldogs would seem to have the geographical advantage. But it’s not an early morning game (9:45 PM ET), and the Red Storm has wins against Pitt, UConn, Marquette, Villanova and Cincy in the last month or so. And they blew out Duke in January. Let it be known that the Bulldogs are a slight Sagarin (0.5) and Pomeroy (53%) favorite. This should be a fun one.
UCLA/Michigan State
The Spartans are a 1.5-point Sagarin favorite and Pomeroy says they have a 55% chance to win, but I’m picking Michigan State because I am not going to go against Tom Izzo this early in the tournament. (Also, UCLA is the 4th-most vulnerable giant according to the GK blog.)
Complete list of first round winners: Ohio St., George Mason, WVU, Kentucky, Marquette, Syracuse, Washington, North Carolina, Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Texas, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Temple, SDSU, Kansas, UNLV, Richmond, Louisville, Georgetown, Purdue, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Old Dominion, Utah State, Wisconsin, St. John’s BYU, Michigan St., Florida
I’m comfortable using Sagarin/Pomeroy to pick 13 of 16 games. Here’s a breakdown of the other three:
North Carolina/Washington
Believe it or not, Sagarin shows the Huskies as a 1.0-point favorite, but Pomeroy favors the Tar Heels (52%). If this game were somewhere other than in North Carolina, I’d pick the Huskies, but I think the Tar Heel faithful will push UNC over the top.
UConn/Cincinnati
Cincy has struggled against guards this season, so Kemba Walker should be able to continue his nice run into the Sweet Sixteen. UConn is a 0.9-point favorite and a 55% Pomeroy favorite.
BYU/St. John’s
I’m not sold on BYU without Brandon Davies (so we can pretty much throw the metrics out the window) and I think the Red Storm will be difficult to prepare for in a short period of time. This is a little risky because St. John’s could easily lose to Gonzaga in the first round.
Complete list of second round winners: Ohio State, Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Duke, Texas, UConn, SDSU, Kansas, Louisville, Purdue, Notre Dame, Pitt, Wisconsin, St. John’s, Florida.
There are two games (OSU/Kentucky and Kansas/Louisville) that are clear Sagarin picks for the Buckeyes and Jayhawks.
North Carolina/Syracuse
The Orangemen are 0.5-point Sagarin favorites and a slight Pomeroy favorite (54%). I just think they’re mentally tougher than the Tar Heels and I don’t see UNC solving Syracuse’s zone.
Duke/Texas
This game has me worried because Duke is so dependent on the three-point shot, and Texas is #5 in the country at defending the three-point line. But Mike Krzyzewski versus Rick Barnes is a big mismatch, so I think Duke will have enough to get by the Longhorns.
SDSU/UConn
This game is in Anaheim, which is a big advantage for the Aztecs, who are already a 2.6-point Sagarin and a 63% Pomeroy favorite. SDSU is one of the best defensive teams in the country.
Notre Dame/Purdue
Purdue is a 1.8-point Sagarin favorite and a 54% Pomeroy favorite, but this game is basically a toss-up. I just think it’s far more likely that Purdue is knocked off before the Sweet Sixteen (with a potential matchup against Georgetown), so I’ll go with the Irish to give myself the best opportunity at Elite Eight points.
Pittsburgh/Wisconsin
The Panthers are a 1.7-point Sagarin favorite and a 55% Pomeroy favorite, so this is also a toss-up. I’m going with Pitt here because there’s a pretty good chance that Wisconsin will lose one of its first two games (vs. Belmont or Utah State), so Pitt has a much better chance of getting to the Sweet Sixteen. (Be very careful about picking the Badgers to go too far. Matchups with Belmont and Utah State are both tighter than advertised.)
Florida/St. John’s
Florida is a 1.9-point Sagarin favorite and a 61% Pomeroy favorite. With three or four days to get ready for the Red Storm, Billy Donovan should have the Gators well-prepared.
Complete list of Sweet Sixteen winners: Ohio St., Syracuse, Duke, SDSU, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt, Florida
All four #1 seeds are fairly substantial (4.5 to 5.9-point) Sagarin favorites and are all 64%+ Pomeroy favorites as well.
Again, I’m worried about Duke’s three-point shooting against another good perimeter defensive team, SDSU, who is 23rd in the country in that category. But Duke is a seasoned team and the complementary players are gaining confidence.
Ohio St. is the best team in the tournament and has the perimeter shooting to bust Syracuse’s zone. In the other two games, I just don’t think Notre Dame or Florida are Final Four-caliber teams.
Complete list of Elite Eight winners: Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, Pitt
Yes, I picked all four #1 seeds to advance. Sue me.
I really like Ohio State, Duke and Kansas this year, and there’s no one in the Pittsburgh bracket that I’d feel comfortable enough pushing through to the Final Four. Florida just got trounced by Kentucky, BYU is without one of its best forwards and Wisconsin has a rough pair of games against Belmont and maybe Utah State. The Southeast just seems weak as a region and I think Pitt has the best chance to prevail.
Ohio State/Duke
If Duke hits its threes, they’ll give the Buckeyes all they can handle, but Ohio St. is just as capable of getting hot from downtown and they have maybe the best big man in the country in Jared Sullinger. This is basically a toss-up (OSU is a 0.7-point Sagarin favorite), but I’m going with the Buckeyes.
Kansas/Pittsburgh
The Jayhawks are a 2.8-point Sagarin favorite which is enough to put them through to the Finals. They’re a little better both offensively and defensively, which is why Pomeroy has them as a 59% favorite.
Ohio State/Kansas
The Buckeyes are a 1.0-point Sagarin favorite and Pomeroy has them as a 59% favorite as well. To me, it stands out that their only two losses were at Wisconsin and at Purdue, which are two very tough places to play. Kansas lost at home to Texas and at Kansas State. Plus, three of their last four games were decided by seven points or less. Mostly, I just think it’s Ohio State’s year.
We shall see, won’t we?
