Can Joe Burrow pull the upset in the Super Bowl?

Joe Burrow Super Bowl Media Day 2022

The answer of course is yes . . . Joe Borrow can pull this off. The question is what are the chances he can pull it off and would you be willing to bet real dollars he can pull this off.

As you can see from the screen shot above from the Super Bowl media day interviews, Burrow has certainly been adding to his “Joe Cool” image. He’s confident bordering on cocky, and he gives all the right visual with the shades and cool demeanor. He’s already proven that he one of the best, if not the best, young quarterback in the NFL, and he can certainly add to his legacy with a win today in the Super Bowl.

The kid is incredibly talented. But he’s up against a Los Angeles Rams team that matches up very well against his Cincinnati Bengals, so we might be looking at a Dan Marino scenario where a brilliant young quarterback gets stifled by a superior football team in the Super Bowl. Burrow fans would hope that if this transpires that Joe will have more shots at the title unlike Marino who suffered for years trying to get back to the big dance.

The Rams are favored by 4.5 points, and many analysts wouldn’t be surprised to see a Rams blowout over the Bengals. That’s my biggest concern for betters going with Burrow and the Bengals.

One concern is the Rams defense. They have the front four that can win the battle against the weak offensive line of the Bengals. Then it’s a matter of scheme. Here’s one nugget:

His worst 4 games this year have come against teams running Fangio’s pre-snap 2 high scheme. Bears, Browns, Chargers, and Broncos all rank in the top 16 in pre-snap 2 high looks.

Who has the most snaps with this look? The Rams.

Then we have the issue of the Bengals defense. First, we have to give them props for an amazing performance against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Bengals dropped eight men into coverage and dared the Chiefs to run. That’s a tried and true approach against arrogant passing offenses and Mahomes and Andy Reid of course didn’t adjust. Don’t expect Sean McVay and the Rams to make the same mistake.

The Bengals have problems stopping the run, and McVay will make them pay for this deficiency. Here’s another nugget from betting guru Warren Sharp:

The Rams have played a BRUTAL schedule of run defenses

rank vs early-down RB-runs since wk 8:

#4 BAL wk 17
#1 SF wk 18
#14 ARI wk 19
#9 TB wk 20
#1 SF wk 21
—————
#32 CIN in the Super Bowl

He’s citing this stat as he makes his case to take Cam Akers and the over on rushing yardage prop bets, but this goes to the bigger point that the Bengals could have a very hard time stopping the run, and then of course the Rams will exploit that when it opens up the passing game.

The Bengals have had an impressive run to the Super Bowl, and Joe Burrow deserves all the accolades. But the Rams offer up a much bigger challenge. The Raiders were not a dominant team and the Bengals won a close game. Then the Bengals got the benefit of facing a Tennessee offense that imploded against them. Finally, while the Chiefs are an explosive machine, they are also capable of throwing games away with reckless play from Mahomes, and that’s exactly what the Bengals defense was able to force in the AFC championship game.

Now the Rams are far from perfect on offense. Matt Stafford has shown a propensity at times to throw bad interceptions, so turnovers can certainly derail the Rams. But other than that Stafford has been pretty impressive in the playoffs, and he’ll have many options against this Bengals defense assuming McVay goes with a balanced attack.

Overall this game has too many advantages for the Rams, so I would lay the points.

Follow the Scores Report editors on Twitter @clevelandteams and @bullzeyedotcom.

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