2012 Preakness Stakes Predictions

After predicting two of the three Kentucky Derby contenders to finish in the money, it’s virtually a guarantee that none of these horses will win anything of substance in this evening’s Preakness Stakes. Book it.

WIN: Bodemeister (3/2)
This is an impressive horse. He finished second behind I’ll Have Another in the Kentucky Derby but he’s never finished lower than second in any of his five career races. He ran out of steam at Churchill Downs two weeks ago but he also had the lead for half the race. I love the trainer-jockey combination of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, and while taking the chalk isn’t very adventurous I can’t envision a scenario where Bodemeister doesn’t finish in the money. He’s the best of a very weak Preakness field.

PLACE: Creative Cause (13/2)
I admit Creative Cause wasn’t on my radar two weeks ago when predicting the Kentucky Derby. But after going back and taking a look at his race history, he could wind up winning tonight if everything breaks right. Eight of his nine career outings were graded races and his fifth place finish at the Derby was his worst showing to date. Previous to that, he never finished lower than third and was victorious at the Grade II San Felipe Stakes, the Grade I Norfolk Stakes and the Grade II Best Pal Stakes. While he isn’t technically a long shot at 13/2, this is my pick to surprise tonight.

SHOW: I’ll Have Another (3/1)
I’ll Have Another has won his last three races – including the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago – and he still can’t get any love. For whatever reason, people aren’t overly impressed by this horse, despite the fact that he hasn’t lost since his sixth place finish at the Grade I Three Chimney’s Hopeful Stakes on September 5 of last year. Seeing as how I have him finishing in the money but not winning the Preakness Stakes, you’d have to count me among those that aren’t enamored with this contender. I think he’ll place somewhere in the top 3 but Bodemeister is still a better looking horse.

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