Former Portland GM explains Oden/Durant decision
Kevin Pritchard was the man in charge of the Portland Trailblazers when the team took Greg Oden with the #1 overall pick in the 2007 NBA Draft instead of Kevin Durant. Pritchard joined 95.5 the Game with John Canzano and discussed a wide range of topics, including that decision.
“I have never studied a person or players like I did Durant/Oden. It was every single minute of every single second of their entire careers. We were going back into AAU and the one thing that kept hitting us really hard was Greg Oden lost three games until he got to Ohio State, then he got hurt again and only lost a couple there and that was over hundreds and hundreds of games. The overwhelming thing that we got from everybody we talked to was the cat doesn’t care if he scores or does anything, but he’s about winning. We had been really trying to change our culture for guys who really put the team first, not care about stats, and really be about winning. We thought he was the pick at the time. We did the same thing with Durant. They said he’s gonna be the best scorer in the league, he’s going to be an amazing player, and he’s gonna win. We just felt like Greg was going to be that guy that just doesn’t lose basketball games. Right before he got hurt we were talking as a management group and we were like man doesn’t it feel like this is becoming a little bit like Greg’s team because in the locker room after a loss he would get really, really upset and he demands out of his teammates probably more than any other player I’ve been around other than Larry Bird. When he lost, he let his teammates knows what they have to do the next game. We were feeling so comfortable going into the rest of the second half of the season that we were going to be good because Greg was coming along.”
At the time, it was not easy to see that Durant was going to have the better career because it was impossible to know that Oden was going to have so much bad luck with injuries. Durant was definitely the better offensive player, but franchise centers don’t come around very often, and Oden was a major force on the defensive end (not unlike Dwight Howard). He also was capable on the offensive end, and already had a couple of post moves when he came out of Ohio State.
He may not be able to stay healthy, but the guy can play. His 36-minute splits over his first two seasons are impressive: 15.3 points, 11.9 rebounds, 3.4 blocks, 6.4 fouls…wait, ignore that last one. But seriously, lots of big men have trouble adjusting to NBA officiating.
Even if Oden can stay healthy, he’ll never overtake Durant in terms of overall value, but he can close the gap a bit…if he can just stay upright.
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It’s not bad luck that Greg has, the dude is old and when you’re that old you get hurt often. Name another 50 year old who can play an 82 game season.
Greg Oden CAN surpass Kevin Durant. You’re foolish if you think it’s not possible.
This a very good response to your position http://tumblr.com/xm73deo0w8
ragg –
What are you talking about. Oden is only 23 years old. Sure he looks 50…but he looked liek that as a freshman in high school. I hope he gets healthy and enjoys a successful NBA career. He is a good guy and deserves it…
@Out of the Loop – If both players stay healthy (which is real big IF in Oden’s case), Durant still has the edge because he’s already MVP-caliber. The only way I see Oden overtaking Durant is if Oden stays healthy and Durant gets injured.
I don’t often write in absolutes, but the chances of Oden overtaking Durant are so remote that I don’t think it’s worth discussing. I’m not writing Oden off. He can still be a good center in this league, but he’s not going to be better than Durant. I’m not the foolish one here.
I agree with your point about Oden’s health being iffy, I won’t discount that, but microfracture surgery and recovery has improved exponentially in the last 5 years. SEE Amar’e Stoudemire.
The major point of this response http://ootloop.tumblr.com/post/7341042824
is that bigs are more valuable than wings.
If Greg goes on to prove to be one of the more dominant bigs in the next decade (improbable as that might be) he’ll go on to surpass Durant in value.
It will boil down to the rings and whether or not each is the best player on their respective teams going forward.
What percentage chance to you give Oden in surpassing Durant’s value? I’d peg it at about 3%. IMO, Oden would have to stay healthy and Durant would have to suffer some career-threatening injury. Bigs are more valuable than wings, true, but Durant is not your ordinary wing and I believe his scoring will always make him more valuable than a defensive-oriented center.
What’s best-case for Oden? Dwight Howard? Isn’t Durant more valuable than Howard right now?
Wow, that’s a great question. Is Durant more valuable than Howard.
I’d bet you every NBA GM but one (OKC THUNDER) would tell you they’d take Dwight Howard before they took Kevin Durant.
GREAT QUESTION. I’m off to dissect that one.
Dwight’s PER from last season is 26.0 compared to Kevin’s 23.6. I think Hollinger would put Dwight before Kevin.
Dwight’s win share is .238 also higher than Kevin’s .217
Dwight dominates the game by altering shots, rebounding AND scoring; though not quite as well as Kevin. Kevin only dominates the game with his scoring.
Advantage: Dwight Howard
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?reque
st=1&sum=0&p1=howardw01&y1=2011&p2=duranke01&y2=2011
WS/48 is even more drastic than I thought.
Howard is .236 and KD is .189
No Contest.
@Out of the Loop: …and Dwight Howard has how many championships exactly? Does anyone think he’s gonna win a championship anytime soon? WS is not the best or most accurate way of determining a player’s value. Besides, when was the last NBA Finals winner that boasted a dominant center? The Lakers with Shaquille O’Neal? (And even then he needed a dominant scorer a la Kevin Durant at his side: see Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade.)
I wish Greg Oden the best, but I’m not delusional enough to think he can surpass Durant at this stage. The only way he can do that is by being better than Dwight Howard, winning the league MVP, and leading the Blazers to the Finals. All by next year.
Win Shares aside, I’m not sure you can give the nod to a guy that is the target of Hack-a-Dwight at the end of games.